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12 Jan

2010: The Year We Make Contract

Posted by: Lane

The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson had a lot of Heat intel for the Heat’s offseason plans, which, of course, start with the LeBron James pipe dream…

• Two people who spoke to the Heat said LeBron James is clearly the outside free agent most coveted by the Heat, but Miami does not want to risk losing out on other targeted stars by waiting too long. Re-signing Dwyane Wade remains the No. 1 priority.

“They’re going to get a feel for who they have the best shot at and will craft their strategy accordingly,” a source close to the Heat said. “They will pursue more than one guy. James is their top choice, but if they get a yes from Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, I’d be shocked if they told either to hold on so they can wait on LeBron” — unless Miami has strong reason to believe James is coming. “If they get one of those three, they would feel confident they can keep Wade. Their biggest anxiety is losing Wade.”

The Heat expects to have between $17 million and $22 million in cap space after re-signing Wade — enough to add a second maximum-salary player but not a third.

Though Wade has said he prefers to stay, the Heat fears he could bolt if the team does not upgrade a lot this summer. Free agents can agree to deals beginning July 1, but cannot sign until July 7.

Though odds are against a James/Wade pairing, “the way the Heat looks at it is how do you pass on a chance to try to get two of the three best players in the league?” one source said. “They raised the Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen comparison.”

The Heat believes Bosh could play center, and Bosh has talked about the appeal of playing with Wade. Miami’s chances of signing Bosh would diminish if he is traded to the Lakers, but ESPN said Tuesday there have been no Raptors-Lakers talks.

• Among other potential unrestricted free agents, Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki and Boston’s Paul Pierce are expected to stay put. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, Houston’s injured Yao Ming and Denver’s Kenyon Martin reportedly won’t opt out.

Among other potential unrestricteds, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Ray Allen and Manu Ginobili play Wade’s position, and moving Johnson back to point guard isn’t ideal. Though Carlos Boozer wants to come here, the Heat sees duplication with Boozer and Beasley.

If Miami cannot get James, Bosh or Stoudemire (and if Wade stays), one option would be trying to sign Memphis restricted free agent small forward Rudy Gay; or signing Boozer and offering Beasley (plus cap-fillers) for Gay or a front-line center or point guard.

If Wade re-signs, the other last-resort option would be splitting cap space among two or three potential unrestricted free agents including Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington, David Lee, Raymond Felton, Nate Robinson, Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake, Brad Miller, Mike Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, John Salmons and Channing Frye. (Dallas has an $11.8 million team option on Josh Howard.)

• Teams expect the 2010-11 cap to be between $52 million and $54 million. If it’s $52 million, Wade’s first-year salary would be about $17 million, a bit higher if the cap is higher. That would also be the first-year salary for James or Bosh with Miami. Players make more by re-signing with their current teams because they’re allowed 10.5 percent annual raises — compared with 8 percent — and sign for six years, not five.

On the Heat’s books for 2010-11: Beasley ($4.9 million), Daequan Cook ($2.2 million), Mario Chalmers ($847,000), James Jones ($4.7 million). But Jones’ cap number is $1.85 million if Miami buys him out.

Add about $1.5 million on the cap for the Heat’s first-rounder, and another $1.5 million or so if the Heat gets the Raptors’ first-rounder — which happens if Toronto makes the playoffs. There’s also a $473,604 cap hold for each of 12 unfilled roster spots, but those disappear when they are filled.

Bottom line: If the Heat has two first-rounders, buys out Jones and re-signs Wade, it should have $20 million or a bit more in remaining space.

• The Heat would love to re-sign Udonis Haslem, but he should get more elsewhere. To clear room to sign outside free agents, Miami likely will need to renounce Haslem, Jermaine O’Neal and Quentin Richardson, among others. That doesn’t prevent the Heat from re-signing them, but Miami could no longer exceed the cap to do it. Once a team uses cap space, it cannot use either cap exception.

Some noteworth stuff (if true)…

* They believe Bosh can play center.

* They seemingly will play one against another with Bosh vs Lebron vs Amare. Not sure if this is smart. First things first, they need to cement Wade though.

* Trades will probably be a big route available to them. But it’s disappointing we probably won’t use the expiring contracts we have to get good players now. In a usual year, having expirings like Jermaine O’Neal or Haslem would have netted some big name players. Now we’re going to renounce them and let them walk for nothing.

* Rudy Gay? I mean he’s a nice player but if he is the big acquistion, I’d be disgusted with how they played their cards.

            BallHype: hype it up! 

One Response to “2010: The Year We Make Contract”

  1. 1. Clementine Tomerlin Says:

    I wanted to thank you for this nice post. I absolutely enjoyed every little bit of it. I have you bookmarked and will be checking back.

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