Three Reasons Why The Heat Should Trade Dwyane Wade

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1.  Dwyane Wade is 31 years old.

Which means he’ll be 32 years old next year, which means he’s probably going to suck.  According to Wages of Wins, NBA players usually peak around age 25-26.  After that, they slowly decline until they hit age 32, when they start declining rapidly.

Here’s the graph that Wages of Wins use to show the growth and decline of a typical NBA player.

You might be wondering what “expected performance change from previous season” actually means?  It’s basically how much better (or worse) a player is expected to play when he goes from, say, 25 to 26.

According to the data analysts at Wages of Wins, we should expect around a 22% decline in production from Dwyane Wade in the next year, and a 35% decline in production in the year after that.

And we’ve already seen the beginning of this decline — Wade averaged 21.1 points per game this year, his lowest scoring average since his rookie season when he averaged 16.2 points per game.  In addition, Wade’s playoff scoring average of 15.8 points per game this year was his lowest ever.  He averaged more points per game when he made the playoffs in his rookie season (18.0 points per game) then he did during the playoffs this year.

On top of that, Wade has been experiencing severe knee problems, which certainly don’t help Wade’s explosive and aggressive style of play.

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Topics: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

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  • Allen Karmelin

    Statistics aren’t everything

    • whatdouknow

      True, but they do mean something. And I think they mean a lot more than people give them credit for.

      Either way, paying $20 million a year for a 32 year old player is way too much, especially when age and injury nearly cost you the NBA championship.

      • Jason Klenetsky

        Nearly? WTF does nearly mean? Heat won. Period.

  • Jeffrey Gebeau

    Spoken like somebody who has no clue what Wade means to the Heat.
    Go ahead. Trade him. Two things will happen.

    1. Wade will have a year like his comeback 09 season.

    No longer deferring to LeBron, he’ll return to the 27+ pts, 7+ asts player that he was previously. But, more importantly, Wade will be fueled by fresh doubt, which is like food to him. Except the thing is that he’ll be doing it for another team.

    2. LeBron will leave in the summer of 2014.

    Here’s where you betray your ignorance of the Heat. LeBron is in Miami for one reason, and it’s not South Beach, palm trees, weather, women, or Pat Riley. And now you want to trade that reason away.

    Without championship level superstar support (aka Wade), James won’t have the backing that he needs to win in 2014. But, even if the Heat were to title again, in that case, LeBron will figure that he can win anywhere, so why stay put when one of his best friends in life, a virtual brother to him, was shipped out?

    So, after 2014, the Heat have no James or Wade. Good plan! All is not lost, however. Maybe Chris Bosh can be convinced to stick around….

    • whatdouknow

      I understand that Wade is the face of the franchise. He put the Heat on the NBA map. He almost singlehandedly delivered the Heat’s first title in 2006. I understand all of that.

      However, it’s time to face reality, and the reality is that Wade is not worth $17-20 million a year. Not at age 31. Not with knees that are like jello. Not with his worst regular season and post season performances since his rookie season. He’s on the decline, and convincing yourself otherwise is delusional.

      To your second point, in 2014, Dwyane Wade will be 32. Chris Bosh will be 30. Do you really think you’re going to convince LeBron to stay by saying “Look, we have a 32 year old, washed-up, banged-up Dwyane Wade and a 30-year old Chris Bosh”? Or do you say, “Look, we just drafted three guys in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory (the 2014 draft is supposed to be pretty deep) and you have the chance to mold them into an exciting, young, championship team”? Which one is more convincing? Which one says, “We want to win?”

      Trading D-Wade and Chris Bosh gives the Heat a better shot at winning in the future. And while we should thank those two players for everything they’ve done for the Heat, the goal is to win championships, not overpay aging superstars.

      • Jason Klenetsky

        Ok, I see your point about thinking of the future. Wade is older, yes. Bad knees, yes. Overpaid, yes. Maybe Bosh and Wade would consider pay cuts? Why not, they are team guys. That was their thoughts when they decided to join forces. TEAM, not SELF. Riley can sell ice to Eskimo’s. The Heat played over 100 basketball games this season. So, yeah maybe Wade is older and has trouble with his knees. Nothing the offseason and some rest won’t take care of. The Heat have the Riley factor. He makes offers you can’t refuse. Dismissing Wade is a mistake. Plain and simple. Bosh had a great year and the Heat would not have accomplished what they did without him. One bad game(which he did all the little things in) does not make a season. You sound like a fair weather fan if you even are one at all.

  • Jason Klenetsky

    The Miami Heat are not the Miami Marlins. Wade is the face if the franchise and why fix something that isn’t broken. I say we watch them as they 3peat then go from there. I don’t think those stats account for a heart of a champion like Wade has. This article reminds me of all the Haters out there that said the Heat couldn’t repeat. Well, they did. Plus we have an ex-factor: Pat Riley. Never count out what that man is capable of.

  • Jason Klenetsky

    I don’t know what ass you pulled those crappy statistics from, must have been a Spurs fan with indigestion.