Should The Miami Heat Keep Their Pick?

The Miami Heat and their fans can finally breathe a sigh of relief, as the results of the NBA Draft Lottery came through in Miami’s favor and now the Heat will keep the tenth pick of the upcoming draft. For a franchise that is used to making trips to the Finals and winning championships, Tuesday’s result is a consolation prize for a season where almost nothing went right.

The Heat were ravaged by injury after injury, that it never seemed they could make it two consecutive games without someone getting hurt. With those injuries, the team’s lack of depth was thrusted into the spotlight, as the Heat resorted to playing three players that started the season in the D-League (Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, and Henry Walker), and one that was banished to China (Michael Beasley). And while the rise of Whiteside was the silver lining, Miami wasn’t so lucky with the other replacements.

Now the Heat can find a player to plug into their rotation, even under the constraints of limited financial flexibility. A top-10 pick also gives Miami a chance to find a youngster to groom for the future. Of course, that is something they haven’t had much luck with in recent years. That’s the price you pay for trading picks or picking late in the first round.

But the other thing the pick offers to the Heat is an asset that can be used to bolster the rotation with a trade for a veteran role-player that can contribute immediately. That’s probably not something Heat fans would like to hear, considering Miami mixing youth with an aging roster helps in the long-term.

Yet Heat President Pat Riley doesn’t think in the long-term; especially when the Eastern Conference can be had in the present. Why wait for a young player to develop, when someone can make an impact now?

With the players projected to be available at the tenth pick, a good majority of them will be kids that just finished their freshmen season in college. That’s asking a lot for an 18-19 year old to be plugged into a rotation of a team that is looking to take another shot at a deep playoff run. Even with players like Arizona’s Stanley Johnson, a wing player who can guard multiple positions on the defensive side of the floor, who has also drawn comparisons to Kawhi Leonard and Ron Artest (pre-Malice in the Palace), which makes him my personal choice for them to pick. Or other wing players like Kansas’ Kelly Oubre (though a player that could see fellow Kansas alum Mario Chalmers as some sort of role-model raises red flags) and Kentucky’s Devin Booker, considered one of the best shooters in the draft, could be seen as immediate upgrades over the likes of Walker and Chalmers.

Or they might struggle to find their footing, which might slow their development down if Coach Erik Spoelstra decides to limit their minutes. This happened with last year’s first round pick, Shabazz Napier, or James Ennis, a player the Heat have been trying to develop for two years, who wasn’t getting enough of an extended chance to get into a groove.

Good news is any of these players won’t be asked to play 30 minutes a night, as guys like Dwyane Wade and, presumably, Luol Deng will get the lion’s share of the minutes on the wings, giving a rookie some key veteran leadership without all the pressure to be a franchise savior, like Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns will see with their new teams.

But is a trade out of the question? Well, aside from the Stepien Rule, which prohibits teams from trading draft picks in back-to-back drafts, and considering the Heat still have a chance to owe a pick to the Sixers next year (it’s top-10 protected, again) they can’t go ahead and trade this one.

Unless they use the pick. Then all bets are off.

When the pick becomes an actual living, breathing player, someone with feelings and emotions, then a trade can be consummated. So whether they negotiate terms before the draft using back channels, or put the framework together after the pick is made, it’s another option that Riley can explore. Maybe call a rebuilding team looking to dump salary and get a little younger might be interested in a swap – someone like Denver, with Wilson Chandler or Danilo Gallinari, comes to mind. Does Johnson/Oubre/Booker and some expiring deals entice the Nuggets?

The point is that there are new options available to the Heat that wouldn’t have been there had they not had some luck with the lottery. Even with Deng and Goran Dragic hopeful to return, Whiteside’s continued growth, and Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts coming back from injuries, the Heat have questions of health with Wade and Deng, the quality of the depth behind them, a work in progress with Napier behind Dragic, and whatever they get out of Chalmers, Napier, Ennis, and Chris Andersen. The Heat will want to bolster that group with as much talent they can find. A drafted player doesn’t guarantee any kind of success, so rolling the dice on another unknown could derail next season’s Heat.

Riley and the Heat have to decide whether sacrificing a piece for the future is worth going for more glory in the present. But if they choose to go with keeping the pick, will they be committed to actually developing the young player?

Because what the Heat do with this pick will go a long way in which direction this team will take in 2015 and beyond.