NBA Free Agency: What’s Next for the Miami Heat?
By Wes Goldberg
At the beginning of this crazy free agency period, the Miami Heat were concerned with maintaining the status quo of its backcourt. Both Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade were due to hit the open market, and Pat Riley and Co. couldn’t afford to lose either one of them. Much to the relief of the organization and its fans, re-signing the two All-Star guards was a relatively easy exercise. Add Justise Winslow miraculously dropping into their lap during the draft, and the Heat have had one of the best off-seasons in the NBA. The Heat still have some work to do, and it doesn’t seem as if it will be as clean as the first act of the summer.
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The Heat will be paying Wade, Dragic, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng (who opted in to his $10.1 million salary for next season) a combined $70 million–about 73 percent of their total payroll.
That’s the cost of giving Wade the Kobe treatment, trading for an All-Star guard at the deadline and, in the wake of losing LeBron a year ago, giving Bosh a mega-max, no-questions-asked deal and doing whatever it takes to land the best available small forward.
Are they overpaying for this group? Absolutely. Was it necessary? Damn right.
But in a league that penalizes teams for overspending, the Heat have some decisions to make. Can owner Micky Arison afford to also overpay for guys like Mario Chalmers ($4.3 million), Chris Andersen ($5 million), Udonis Haslem ($2.8 million) and Josh McRoberts ($5.5 million)?
Currently, the Heat are operating about $15 million over the luxury tax threshold.* Teams that go over that threshold pay an accompanying tax hit in escalating increments. The Heat, according to Larry Coon’s Salary Cap guide, will pay $3.50 for every dollar over the luxury tax threshold. The result being that the Heat could be paying upwards of $30 million extra for this current team.
It’s no wonder, then, that the Heat are believed to be shopping Chalmers, Andersen and possibly McRoberts. By trading Chalmers and Andersen, and waiving Henry Walker’s non-guaranteed deal (and assuming the Heat don’t take back any contracts) the Heat could shave $10 million off the payroll and save Arison about $12.5 million in luxury tax bills.
Feb 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Chris Andersen (11) defends against the Orlando Magic during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
The question then becomes how the Heat replace those players. Miami would still be operating over the projected salary cap of $67.1 million. Therefore, they would only have the $3.4 million mid-level exception available. Using the MLE would still come with tax hits, so its unclear if Arison would sign off on such spending after just shedding payroll.
It’s more likely, then, that the Heat would sign players to the veteran minimum.** Miami’s been linked to guard Marcus Thornton and power forward Carlos Boozer. Hypothetically, if the Heat were to rid themselves of Chalmers and Andersen, and sign Thornton and Boozer to minimum deals, they would save about $6.7 million in payroll and cut the team’s $30 million-plus luxury tax bill nearly in half.
On the bottom line, the organization would be saving money. But the real bottom line could be this: Despite a very successful off-season, the Heat probably aren’t making any more roster upgrades. If anything, we may only see some downgrades. Chalmers takes a beating from fans as the team piñata, but he’s certainly better than Thornton or another minimum-level guard.
Of course, all of this changes if Arison says “screw it” and decides to dip into the luxury tax, but that’s a whole hell of a lot of money to spend on a team that didn’t even make it to the playoffs last season.
The core group of Dragic, Wade, Deng, Bosh and Hassan Whiteside are coming back with the addition of Winslow. That’s an improved team from the start of last season. Reserves Shabazz Napier, Tyler Johnson, James Ennis and Zoran Dragic are probably safe, too, since none of their contracts exceed $1.5 million. The rest of the roster? Well, that’s what Riley, Arison and Spoelstra are working on.
*The luxury tax threshold is projected at $81.6 million for the 2015-16 season.
**Teams can still sign players to the veteran minimum even when operating over the cap. The minimum can be anywhere between $500,000 and $1.5 million, depending on how long the player has played in the NBA.