Is the Heat’s hot 3-point shooting for real?

The Miami Heat offense has been buzzing lately, fueled by hot shooting from behind the arc. So can they keep it up?

The Miami Heat’s recent turnaround includes many impressive statistics, but one in particular stands out as especially remarkable.

At the point when they had an11-30 record, the Heat were 27th in the league in three-point percentage, shooting 33.8 percent. In the 16 games since, their 40.2 percent mark from deep is third to only Golden State and Cleveland.

During that 14-2 stretch, five players shot over 40 percent: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington Luke Babbitt and Okaro White. Plus Rodney McGruder shot 38.8 percent (and Willie Reed made his one and only three, a buzzer beater).

But there is uncertainty that this tear will continue. Excluding the rookie White, only Babbitt has shot over 40 percent for his career.

To get a better sense at the sustainability of Miami’s flamethrowers, lets take a look at the culprits behind the run.

Goran Dragic

When it comes to Heat three bombs this season, no one’s been more consistent that Dragic. He is shooting 42.6 percent on almost four attempts in a resurgent season.

Lately though, the way Dragic is getting his threes has changed.

For three pointers, NBA.com distinguishes three areas on the court: left corner, right corner and above the break (anywhere else). The distance from either corner to goal is 22 feet, while above the break is a 23-foot, 9-inch shot.

• In the first 41 games, Dragic launched a combined 43 from the two corners and 82 above the break.
• In the last 16, he has shot just five from either corner and 57 above the break.

In fact, Dragic hasn’t taken a left corner three in seven games, or one from the opposite corner in 12. Unpredictably though, Dragic’s percentage has only improved. In the last 16 games, the veteran point guard is converting on a blistering 48.4 percent.

The discrepancy in corner shots may be dismissed due to sample size–or that point guards don’t normally find themselves in the corners–but there’s something more here. And it has to do with head coach Erik Spoelstra properly using personnel.

Wayne Ellington & Tyler Johnson

Ellington is leading the Heat this season in three-point attempts with a career-high 6.2 per game on 35.5 percent shooting.

But the way he gets his shots is more notable. According to NBA.com, Ellington shoots 4.5 threes a game on catch and shoot, while 91.5 percent of his threes have been assisted on, a career high. With his talents properly employed, he’s been getting good looks all season and early indications are he scavenged Dragic’s corner attempts.

• In the first 41 games (21 for him), Ellington shot 38 in the corners and 91 above the break.
• In the last 16, he shot 34 in the corners and 66 above the break.

Another reason has been the shaky play of Tyler Johnson. In the first stretch of the season he was shooting the three well (over 37 percent), but has cooled off (24 percent) since returning from injury.

Johnson has also struggled with ball control, forcing Spoelstra to play him more as a third-playmaker when he’s in the game. As a result, the second most-used lineup recently has been Dragic-Ellington-James Johnson-Tyler Johnson-Reed.

Dragic and James Johnson are the primary ball handlers, flanked by shooters Ellington and Tyler Johnson. The latter has struggled from deep of late, but that lineup will be only more lethal when he can dial it back in.

Luke Babbitt, James Johnson & Rodney McGruder

McGruder has heated up recently, shooting 38.8 percent in the past 16 games on 3.1 tries a game.

Babbitt plays only 16 minutes a game, and in that time he’ll likely make something like 2-4 or 1-3 from three. He can stretch the floor, but James Johnson’s playmaking is more valuable and Babbitt’s defense is a liability. His 40 percent is sustainable, but it’s other shortcomings that force him off the floor early.

Johnson is having a career year from deep at 35.3 percent but has cooled off of late. Still, he is Miami’s best option at the 4 and is thriving this season in a point-forward role off the bench.

Dion Waiters

No Heat player better represents the three-point turnaround than Waiters. In the first 41 games (Waiters played in 21), he was shooting 30.8 percent on 3.8 attempts. But in his last 13, Waiters is shooting a scorching 47.2 percent while shooting 5.5 a game.

Excluding this season, Waiters is a career 33.5 percent three-point shooter, oft known for ill-timed fading step-back jumpers. Waiters hasn’t shied away from taking the shot of course, but has at least reached a common ground with Spoelstra: finish on balance.

Via the Sun Sentinel:

"“I just tell myself to stay on balance,” Waiters said. “Before, I used to fade a lot, and now the coaches here, Coach Rob, Coach D.C., they’re pounding me, ‘Dion, make the move, stay on balance.’ So now I make the move, I stay on balance.”"

Waiters surely won’t continue shooting 47.2 percent, but so far the compromise appears to be paying off.

Plus, he looked pretty balanced on this one:

Josh Richardson

So what does all this mean?

Well for one, it means that seven of nine rotation players can shoot the three, a number that only increases with the return of Josh Richardson.

To start the season, Richardson was second on the team with 5.1 three-point tries a game, but just couldn’t get it going, shooting 31.3 percent. It was ideally just a rough stretch though, as the second-year player has proven plenty capable: knocking down 53.3 percent of his triples after the All-Star Break last season.

Next: Was the 27- or 13-game win streak more impressive?

The Miami Heat have a rotation stocked full of shooters on a tear. Even if they fall back down to Earth, Josh Richardson may be waiting there to catch them.