At the start of training camp, Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow appeared to have a promising sophomore campaign on the horizon. But an early injury derailed his season.
When the Miami Heat selected Justise Winslow with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft, they were all aware of what they were getting themselves in to.
A defensive standout hailing from Duke, Winslow entered the NBA hauling a load of promise, but also a tad bit of doubt. Would he be able to develop a consistent outside shot? How fluent truly is he on the offensive end?
Notice the trend.
Read More: Can Justise Winslow’s jumper be fixed?
All of these are question marks regarding his ability on the offensive end, and that is an area Winslow worked extremely hard to improve in during the 2016 offseason.
Countless videos surfaced of him in the gym putting up an endless stream of jump shots, and for a while it appeared some progress had been made.
However, the inevitable sophomore slump hit early, and Winslow’s jumper took a toll on his percentages. Over the course of the short two-month period in which he was moderately active, he was shockingly off, and I found myself puzzled as well.
Where was the stroke he displayed during the offseason? While he’s no Stephen Curry, I truly believed we might have been witnessing the growth of a potential impact player in this league, and the next (and most vital) step in his development was the outside shot.
With increased touches and shot attempts, he shot career-lows in both field goal (35.6) and three-point percentage (20.0), and appeared in just 18 games due to a shoulder injury that eventually required season-ending surgery.
In this relatively small sample size, it is nearly impossible to make any clear judgment on a player that, in my opinion, could prove to be one of the biggest steals in NBA Draft history if the pieces of the puzzle all align.
Let’s take a look back at Winslow’s season.
Best Performance: December 22, 2016 vs. Los Angeles: 23 points, 13 rebounds, 4 steals, 63 percent shooting.
Sample sizes such as this one remind you why Winslow was thought so highly of by NBA scouts.
Having lost three in a row, the Heat were on a spiral downward and the free fall was only beginning.
With Miami in early season desperation mode, Winslow put forth the best performance of his young career.
It didn’t hurt that Shaquille O’Neal’s no. 32 jersey was being raised to the rafters, either.
The Heat found themselves down by as many as 19 in the first half, and for quite some time, it appeared Miami was on its way to another nationally televised disappointment.
Refusing to rely on his outside shot for much of the night, Winslow toyed with the Lakers defense down low, scoring on an array of drives, floaters, and push shots, bringing the Heat all the way back and marking one of their more impressive victories of the year, albeit against another non-playoff team.
Not only did he dominate them with his scoring, but he also snatched a career-high 13 rebounds, matching Hassan Whiteside’s total for the game while knocking down clutch shot after clutch shot down the stretch.
All-in-all, an impressive performance that left a lasting impact on myself, and perhaps Winslow may have provided a potential glimpse into what we’ll see in the future.
Interesting Stat: 19.8
Across the board, Winslow’s numbers this year were far from spectacular.
He struggled to find his offensive rhythm and was his usual stout self on defense.
Upon further examining the analytics, only one statistic stood out from the rest.
In just 18 games, Winslow recorded the highest usage percentage of his career by far, with a rating of 19.8.
That’s 7.3 points higher than his previous rating of 12.5 and provides a clear explanation as to why he shot such low percentages from the field this season.
The only problem is, it will only increase with time, and it’s very unclear at this point just how well his game will translate following major surgery.
If the Heat plan to return to a state of relevancy any time soon, they’ll need Winslow to step up, and in several instances, he’s proven he is beyond capable.
Time will only tell.
What we learned
Aside from the fact that his body just did not come to an agreement with him, we didn’t learn anything about Winslow that we already didn’t know.
His outside shot is still a work-in-progress and his offensive game as a whole still needs tweaking. Winslow attempted roughly 13 field goal attempts per game, only knocking down 4 of them on average. That’s not to say he won’t get there, but it’s quite clear this is a situation that can’t be solved over night.
In fact, it may take seasons for Winslow to morph into an effective offensive force, but that’s a risk the Heat are willing to take. During his end-of-the-season press conference, president Pat Riley offered nothing but praise for the young small forward, and even went on to bring up Kawhi Leonard comparisons. (Quote via the Miami Herald.)
"“I’ve been around players like Justise Winslow for a long time. He is a warrior, defender, cares about winning, has tremendous energy. The guy had a tough ride this year. He had a sprained wrist and played with it. Separated his shoulder, had that surgery. I took a look at a lot of those guys like Justise who came in as one and done guys. Kawhi Leonard averaged eight points a game his first year. Six years later, he’s 25. We are measuring this guy after 75 games. That’s unfair.”"
With Winslow heading into this third season as a pro and Miami looking to rise back to contender status, his development will be key in recapturing that fire.
Patience is the key, and if there’s one thing we learned from this season, it is just that.
Where do we go from here?
Winslow entered the league with the potential to develop into one of the NBA’s most potent two-way players, hence the comparisons to Leonard.
While some are frustrated with his lack of growth offensively, my faith has not wavered. I believe that with more work that Winslow could average 15-20 points per game.
Rome was not built in a day, and developing a reliable jump shot can often take several years to master, just ask Jason Kidd.
Riley doesn’t seem the least bit concerned, and he feels the criticism aimed at Winslow’s outside shooting is totally unwarranted. (Quote via the Miami Herald.)
"“I wish you would get off his three-point shooting… He will make enough of them. When you have Dion and Wayne Ellington and you have James and Tyler and you have others and Goran, you are going to need a player that’s sort of like the backbone of your team, a glue guy. It bothers me when you’re taking away from a guy who is 75 games from being on the court. It’s unfair to him. Give him a chance.”"
In a sense, he’s totally right. Winslow missed nearly 80 percent of last season, and it is tough to truly judge a player on such a small sample size.
Next: Josh Richardson's up and down season
At this point, it’s impossible to truly predict what will happen going forward, but if I know Riley and Spoelstra’s system well enough by now, Heat fans should have nothing to worry about.