What the Paul George fallout means for Pat Riley and the Miami Heat

“In Riley we trust” is a common adage among Heat fans, and it’s being repeated over and over like a top-40 Drake hit this summer. Here’s the idea: When everything is said and done, Pat Riley will set up a contender in Miami, somehow or some way. This (irrational and unwavering) trust, though, may only be setting fans up for disappointment.

That’s not a knock against Riley, who has somehow managed (along with head coach Erik Spoelstra and salary cap wizard Andy Elisburg) to keep the Heat relevant following LeBron James’ 2014 departure. Rather, it’s a commentary on the state of the league. When Riley last built a contender—in 2010 by signing LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh—there was only one super team to compete with, and LeBron and Wade were better than any of Boston’s three musketeers. Ask Riley or David Griffin, signing LeBron is different than signing any other player. He immediately makes you a title contender, and ensures you always have the best player on the floor.

But the summer of 2017 isn’t the summer of 2010 or even 2014. LeBron James isn’t walking through that door. In fact, he’s looking to add more super stars to his own team. The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Sunday that Paul George has told the Pacers that he will leave the franchise after the season, and that Indiana has become “more aggressive in pursuing trades for George” as a result. David Aldridge then reported that the Pacers are seeking two first round picks and a solid young player in return.

Woj added that Pacers president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard has discussed a deal with LeBron’s Cavaliers. And, after the Celtics traded the first overall pick to the 76ers for the third overall pick and a future first, they have more than enough to get a deal done if they so choose.

That’s the problem for Riley. Teams that won 50-plus games and were in the Eastern Conference finals are in position (or at least in the market) to add another star. The Cavs have Kevin Love as an asset, and the Celtics have their finger over a big red button for whenever they’re ready to move. The Heat, as the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson writes, have no such leverage.

"“Yes, the Heat likes Indiana’s Paul George, who is being shopped after informing the Pacers that he plans to leave as a free agent in the summer of 2018, with a preference for the Lakers.But Miami doesn’t have the available assets that Indiana reportedly is looking for – two No. 1 picks and a starter. The Heat cannot trade any No. 1 picks (before the draft) until 2023 because it has traded multiple future No. 1 picks and picks can’t be traded in consecutive years.Every other team in the league, other than Miami, is eligible to trade a first-round pick before 2023.”"

Miami’s assets—Justise Winslow (who, two years into the league, has shooting problems and a shoulder surgery), Tyler Johnson (on a poison pill contract) and the 14^th pick in this year’s draft (which they can only trade after using the selection)—fall far short compared to what other teams can offer for George, or any other player.

Riley liquidated his assets when he traded two future first-round picks for Goran Dragic at the trade deadline in 2014. Dragic was Miami’s best player last season and is playing at a near-All-Star level, but trading two first rounders was a shortsighted move. Dragic was a free agent after the season, and already had a preference for Miami (along with New York and Los Angeles). Riley could have signed him outright, or went with cheaper options like Cory Joseph or Patrick Beverley. Over the years, Riley has also shipped away every second round pick until 2022.

Now, maybe at this point you’re screaming “Riley doesn’t build through the draft, so what good are those picks?!” Well, consider that every trade (except one) that occurred at last year’s deadline involved a draft pick of some kind. Draft picks are the NBA’s currency, and Riley and the Heat are broke.

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What Miami does have is cap room. After waiving Chris Bosh, they will have nearly $37 million in space, and could clear even more by waiving Wayne Ellington before July 7 and dumping Josh McRoberts. The best thing the Heat can hope for is that Gordon Hayward is tempted by the sunshine of South Beach.

However, if Hayward goes to Boston or re-signs in Utah, the Heat should use its greatest asset (again, the cap room) in a more creative way than just re-signing Dion Waiters and James Johnson, and existing in the purgatory of good-not-great.

Los Angeles needs to clear salary to sign George and, if he is indeed hell-bent on joining the Lakers, the Heat might as well profit from it. Riley can absorb the contract of Timofey Mozgov or Luol Deng in exchange for assets like D’Angelo Russell or Julius Randle and future picks. It could be a quick way to restock assets. Sometimes the best way to get rich is to be the middleman. (And, if they trade Tyler Johnson for future picks and find a taker for McRoberts, the Heat could still have enough room to re-sign Waiters and James Johnson).

This wouldn’t be a tank move. It’s essentially buying assets that could help grease the wheels on future trades. Riley should still kick the tires on a George deal. If no other team is willing to pay the Pacers’ price, the Heat could rent him at a bargain (say, Tyler Johnson, McRoberts, Ellington and a pick swap on Thursday). Trading for George could (theoretically) help encourage Hayward to sign, but that would require Riley to fill out the roster with minimum contracts, losing out on more long-term players. If George decides to peace out after a season, it would leave the Heat in a rut. A good-not-great team with a (possibly) unhappy Hayward.

Of course, there is always the nuclear option. If a George trade isn’t in the cards and Hayward signs elsewhere, the Heat will only be further away from a championship, with no assets and the most getable players off the market. At that point, it would be worth exploring what sort of value the Heat could get in return for Hassan Whiteside or Dragic. Miami’s pick in 2018 is top-seven protected, and it’s supposed to be another loaded draft class, headlined by potential franchise-changing talented Michael Porter and Luka Doncic. By securing its pick and flipping Whiteside and/or Dragic for future picks, Riley could plant the seeds for a rebuild almost instantly.

Next: Heat, Riley can help Paul George reach potential

However, as we know, that’s not in Riley’s make up. He won’t tank unless he absolutely has to. That could happen if George is traded to a competitor, Hayward signs with the Celtics and James Johnson and/or Dion Waiters accept lucrative offers from other teams that the Heat can’t match. The Heat could come out of this summer with the second-best team in the East, or one of the worst. It does, however, need to settle on a direction. Because if there is no direction at all, the trust Heat fans have instilled in Riley will begin to wane.