So, knowing how important playing well in late-game situations is, especially in the playoffs, which teams have been the most productive during crunch time?

Note: All data is from NBA Stats. In addition, crunch time is defined as the last five minutes of a game, with a team ahead or behind by five points.

Not surprisingly, the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat are offensively head-and-shoulders above other playoff teams during crunch time.  They both score more than 130 points per 100 possessions in the last five minutes of playoff games when they’re leading or trailing by five points.  On the flip side, the Indiana Pacers score around 72 points per 100 possessions during crunch time and the Brooklyn Nets score only 81 points per 100 possessions.  The reason why the Indiana Pacers are still in the second round of the playoffs (and also why the Brooklyn Nets aren’t still in the playoffs) is that they play incredible crunch time defense.

As mentioned earlier, the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers cannot execute offensively, but they have equal trouble defensively, giving up 106 and 112 points per 100 possessions in crunch time.  However, their sub-par defense pales in comparison to the Los Angeles Clippers, who give up 174 points per 100 possessions in crunch time.  Most surprisingly though is Miami’s terrible crunch time defense (they give up 145 points per 100 possessions), especially since the Heat have one of the best defensive players in the league in LeBron and had one of the better regular season defenses in the NBA, as well.

Combining the offensive and defensive efficiency of each team results in a team’s net rating, or point differential per 100 possessions.  Having a high point differential means that a team performs well in crunch time, while having a low point differential means that a team struggles in crunch time. Five of the remaining eight playoff teams have positive net ratings, while three of the remaining eight playoff teams have negative net ratings.  The most surprising thing is that one of the three teams with negative net ratings are the Miami Heat, who have struggled in crunch time during the playoffs after dominating crunch time situations during the regular season.

Here’s the presentation of the paper “To Crash or Not To Crash” at the Sloan Sport’s Conference

One of the most important moments in a game to grab an offensive rebound is in crunch time (which I define as winning or losing by five points with five minutes or less left in the game).  For a team that is winning, an offensive rebound and a subsequent offensive possession uses valuable time and gives a chance to extend the lead.  For a team that is losing, an offensive rebound gives the team another chance to cut the lead.

The teams that grab the highest percentage of offensive rebounds in crunch time are the (data from here)

1. Memphis Grizzlies — 39%
2. Chicago Bulls –38.8%
3. Indiana Pacers — 36.6%

The interesting thing is that you would expect these teams to not have the best defensive ratings: one would think that if they’re crashing the boards hard they leave themselves susceptible to transition offense.  However, the Pacers are second in the NBA in crunch time defense (giving up only 88.4 points per game).  The Grizzlies are fifth in the NBA in crunch time defense (94.5 ppg) while the Chicago Bulls are tenth (98.1 ppg).  It could be that great rebounding teams tend to be good defensive teams due to good coaching (Tom Thibodeau in Chicago, for example), good defensive big men (Gasol, Noah, Hibbert), or a combination of other factors — however, it is surprising that the best crunch time offensive rebounders also play some of the best crunch time defense.