#4 – Charlotte Hornets – 43-39, 3rd in the Southeast; 7th in the East
Projected starters: Kemba Walker (PG), Lance Stephenson (SG), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF), Marvin Williams (PF), Al Jefferson (C)
Finally, all is right again in Charlotte. The former Bobcats get the name and colors of the original franchise that left for New Orleans in 2002 and with that comes new hope. Charlotte made its second playoff appearance in franchise history, and have followed that up with a big free agent signing in Stephenson. Now looking to take a chance in a seemingly wide open division, the Hornets have Charlotte buzzing.
How it can go right: In his first season in Charlotte, Jefferson averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game and gave the now-Hornets an old-fashioned low post presence. He’s the centerpiece of the Charlotte offense, as 31% of the team’s points occurred while he was on the court. In a division with Al Horford, Nikola Vucevic, Nene, and Chris Bosh, Jefferson is a force that gives the Hornets an advantage in the paint.
Walker has been making strides as a point guard, raising his assists numbers each season he has been in the league. He helps in every facet of the game, scoring (17.7 ppg), rebounding (4.6 rpg), and steals (1.2 spg), that he’s developed nicely as the spark-plug of this team. His gradual improvements have rewarded him with a 4-year, $48 million contract extension.
Then there’s Stephenson, who wore out his welcome enough in Indiana that even they wouldn’t match a team friendly 3-year, $27 million contract to keep him. Now he can help take the burden off of Walker’s shoulders on offense. Last season, Stephenson had career highs in points (13.8), rebounds (7.2), and assists (4.6) for a Pacers team that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat. So why would they let him go? Oh wait…
How it can go wrong: Stephenson might be a lunatic. His antics have drawn the kind of attention that can give a player a bad reputation in the league. There’s no question the talent is there, but he has a tendency to rock the boat. The other thing that I’m missing about the buzz (sorry) around this team is that people are expecting a leap in production now that he’s out of Indiana. Thing is that you could argue that Stephenson was the second option for the Pacers; now you could argue he’s the third for the Hornets. Trying to make sure there are enough touches between he, Jefferson, and Walker could be interesting. To expect a James Harden-like rise in production without Paul George getting in the way might be a lot to ask.
Speaking of comparisons to the Pacers, the Hornets weren’t exactly the Golden State Warriors on offense. They were 22nd in the league in points per game, just ahead of Indiana. They were also 25th in the league in field goal percentage. Walker only shot 39% from the field, so he needs to improve that for the Hornets to be effective in the half-court.
First month (or so) of games: Milwaukee, Memphis, @New York, @New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta, @Lakers, @Portland, @Phoenix, @Golden State, Dallas, @Indiana, Orlando, @Miami, Clippers, Portland, Golden State, @Atlanta
The Hornets get to roll up their sleeves early on with that 4-game road trip out west. They actually play seven games against Western Conference playoff teams before December, so they’ll be tested early. They get an early look at division rivals Miami and Atlanta twice.
Win/loss prediction: 45-37, 3rd in the Southeast; 7th in the East. This team has their own question marks: Can Jefferson fight off the injury bug? Can Stephenson take that next step? Can Walker improve as a shooter? The good news is this team is built on defense (sixth best defensive rating) so that will keep them in games. Now it’s just a matter of whether they find their punch on offense.