Having just passed the half-way point of the season, we breakdown the performance of each Miami Heat player.
It would be a huge understatement to say that the Miami Heat have been completely underwhelming this season. Presently in 14th place in the Eastern Conference with a 13-30 record, the post Big 3 era has certainly not gone to plan. Having lost Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in the offseason, very few had high expectations on the Heat coming into the season.
In fact, most pundits predicted the Heat to finish around the 35-win mark, a large drop off from last season’s 48 wins. Despite this, very few, including the Heat themselves, were expecting such a sharp decline in their production. A number factors come into play, such as injuries and poor form, when trying to explain this major slide in the standings.
But ultimately, when a franchise loses two hall-of-fame players in the one offseason without having the flexibility or assets to replace them immediately, it’s likely going to spell trouble. And that’s exactly how its panned out.
Without an all-star on the roster and a host of young, up-and-coming players still finding their way, it probably shouldn’t be all that surprising where the Heat currently find themselves.
Granted, the Heat have had a significant amount of their team miss multiple games at various times due to injury. So while some bad luck can explain some of their downfalls, it’d be irresponsible to lay the blame solely on their high spate of injuries.
The fact is the Heat have been competitive in the majority of their games throughout the season. But due to a combination of lack of execution and overall talent, their record indicates they are almost certainly headed for the lottery instead of the postseason.
Goran Dragic
Through the first half of the season, Dragic has demonstrated what he is capable of producing. In 34 games, Dragic is averaging 19.4 points, 6.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 46.4 percent from the field. Having taken a backseat to Wade during the past couple of seasons, Dragic has returned to the form he displayed as a member of the Phoenix Suns when he was named to the all-NBA third team.
Furthermore, he has particularly excelled when he has not had to share the backcourt with newcomer Dion Waiters. Earlier this season where Waiters missed 20 games due rot injury, Dragic excelled in posting 21.4 points, 7.5 points and 4.0 rebounds in 36.1 minutes per game. Being a point guard who flourishes with the ball in his hands, these are the sort of numbers the Heat were anticipating when they traded for him at the start of 2015.
A further point on the Dragic-Waiters dynamic: when Waiters is off the court, Dragic’s usage rate is at 27.9 for the season. When he is on the court, this drips mightily to 22.5.
The one major negative that can be pointed at Dragic this season is his turnover rate. He is presently averaging 3.2 turnovers per game, the highest number of his career.
Overall, Dragic should be commended that despite the constant speculation as to his future in Miami, Dragic has continue to compete and perform at an elite level. Check out below for highlights of Dragic’s premier game of the season. In 31 minutes, Dragic totalled 34 points on 14-of-23 from the field to go along with five rebounds and five assists.
GRADE: A-
Tyler Johnson
Johnson thus far has rewarded the faith the Heat front office showed in him this past offseason. The four-year, $50 million deal he signed was met with a great deal of skepticism. But Johnson has proven to be more than apt at both guard positions in his role coming coming off the bench.
In 39 appearances, Johnson is averaging 14.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game. And while he is shooting just 43.1 percent from the field., he is nailing 37.9 percent of his three-point attempts in 31.0 minutes per game. One of Johnson’s most noticeable contributions has been his improved ball-handling ability.
Despite increasing his playing increasing from 24.0 to 31.0 minutes per game, Johnson’s turnover has rate decreased, averaging just 1.0 turnover per game. Overall, there have been 12 games this season where Johnson has not committed a turnover. Considering the fact the Heat don’t have a certified backup point guard, this is a very encouraging accomplishment.
One interesting note from Johnson this season: in the current analytics-era, most teams have significantly reduced shooting from certain areas of the field. This season, 9.7 percent of Johnson’s total field goal attempts have been taken from between 20 feet and the three-point line. He is hitting at a 50 percent clip on these shots. Therefore in Johnson’s case, the “long-two” has actually been a weapon of choice.
Check out highlights below of Johnson’s career-high performance this season against the Orlando Magic. Johnson posted 32 points on 13-of-20 from the field in a double-overtime loss.
GRADE: B+
Justise Winslow
Winslow’s second year in the league went from bad to worse and eventually ended prematurely. Even when healthy earlier in the season, Winslow’s struggles shooting from the field were a real concern. These early woes were only compounded for himself and the Heat when he was sidelined for 16 games with a wrist injury.
When he returned, Winslow played a further nine games, taking his season tally to 18. It was unfortunately at this stage that he sustained a shoulder injury that required surgery, ruling him out for the remainder of the season. With the mass departure of experience this offseason, this season was seen as great opportunity for the Heat to develop Winslow into a key component of the team for the future.
In his 18 appearances, Winslow averaged 10.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.4 steals. He was averaging a team-high 34.9 minutes per game. The most glaring problem was his perimeter shooting. He converted just 35.4 percent of his field goals and 20 percent of his three-point attempts. Considering these have regressed quite noticeably from his rookie season, this was cause for much frustration for himself and the team when healthy.
One area though that Winslow continued to flourish in was on the defensive end. When Winslow on the court this season, the Heat gave up on average 101.5 points per 100 possessions. When he was off the floor, this jumped to 105.4. Further Winslow had the best plus/minus rate on the team up until he was lost for the season. Overall up until December 30, Winslow was a -6 when on the floor. During this period, the Heat were -106 when he was off the court.
Check below for the highlights of Winslow’s most impressive performance this season. In this game, Winslow posted 23 points, 13 rebounds, four steals and three assists in a home victory against the Los Angeles Lakers. Also, Winslow was an impressive +22 when on the floor.
GRADE: C-
Hassan Whiteside
On the surface, Whiteside’s numbers this season are certainly all-star worthy. Posting 17.4 points, 14.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game, Whiteside is clearly one of the most dominant interior players in the game. And for someone who signed a $94 million contract this past summer, these are sort of numbers the Heat would’ve been expecting for their investment.
But when breaking down Whiteside’s numbers further, there have been some notable areas of concern. With his supreme athleticism and instincts for the ball, Whiteside’s status as a daunting defensive presence would presumably be unquestioned. But when breaking down the metrics, the Heat have actually performed better defensive with Whiteside on the pine.
The Heat have so far allowed 106.0 points per 100 possessions when Whiteisde is manning the middle. This number however drops to 102.5 when he’s having a rest. So despite leading the league in rebounding and ranking fifth in blocked shots, the Heat have statistically been a superior defensive unit without Whiteside.
Furthermore, another interesting stat arises for Whiteside, this time on the other end of the floor. Whiteside has thus far scored 19 or more points on 16 occasions this season. The Heat have a 2-14 record in these contests. While this particular stat is difficult to put a finger on, it simply brings into the question the overall impact Whiteside is actually having on the teams’ success.
However with the team at 12-30, it can be quite hard to gauge how much of this can be blamed on Whiteside, or with the rest of the team.
Check out the highlights below of one of Whiteside’s most impressive games this season. Matched against rookie sensation Joel Embiid, Whiteside notched 32 points and 13 rebounds on 13-of-19 from the field in an eventual loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
GRADE: A
Dion Waiters
Considering he was signed under the NBA’s mid-level exception policy, Waiters has proven to be a worthwhile addition to the Heat. For the season, Waiters has averaged 13.0 points, 3.7 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 29.7 minutes per contest. He has only just recently returned to the lineup after missing 20 games with a groin injury.
However prior to his injury, Waiters enjoyed his best stretch as a member of the Heat, posting 18.8 points, 4.4 assists and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 41.8 percent from the field. But as has been the case for the majority of his career, efficiency has not been Waiters’ strong suit. This season he is shooting 37.4 percent from the field and just 31.0 percent from the three-point line.
And further to this, Waiters is again showing his preference to possess the ball in high volumes. For the season, his usage rate of 24.9 per game only marginally trails the Heat’s starting point guard, Goran Dragic. As explained earlier, Dragic has flourished when Waiters has been off the floor. Therefore, it will be interesting as to what direction the Heat will heading when Waiters’ contract come up at the end of this season.
But despite his flaws, Waiters has consistently demonstrated he is highly proficient at getting to the rim and creating his own shot. Check out highlights below of his most impressive performance of the season, where Waiters registered 28 points, six assists and five rebounds against the Memphis Grizzlies.
GRADE: B-
Josh Richardson
Things have not quite got to plan for Richardson in his second season in the league. After finishing his rookie season on a tear from behind the three-point line line, Richardson and the Heat were hoping for more of the same and to take his game to an even higher level. But it appears Richardson has sorely missed the veteran presence that walked out the door this past offseason.
In 28 appearances this season, Richardson has averaged 11.1 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 31.3 minutes per game. His shooting has been a struggle, hitting just 39.4 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from downtown. Having shot 46.1 percent from behind three in his rookie, this represents a significant drop for the promising guard.
Richardson sustained an untimely knee injury during the preseason which delayed the start to his season. Therefore, this could explain part of the reason for Richardson’s slow start to the season. And while he has posted some impressive numbers at times, his consistency has been severely lacking.
The most recent 12 games Richardson participated in sums up the inconsistency that his plagued him this season. During the initial five games of this 12 game stretch, Richardson averaged 8.0 points and 2.8 assists while shooting a horrendous 26.4 percent from the field, including 16 percent from three.
He followed this up the following four games by averaging 18.8 points, 5.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game, shooting 50 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three. He then reverted the next three games to averaging 8.7 points and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 18.8 percent from three.
Unfortunately for Richardson and the Heat, he has been back on the injury list for the past two weeks having sustained a sprained foot. To say it has been a frustrating season thus far for Richardson would be an enormous understatement.
Check out the highlights below in what has been Richardson’s best all-round game this season. Playing against the Boston Celtics, Richardson posted 19 points, eight assists, six rebounds, four steals and two blocks.
GRADE: C-
James Johnson
After a slightly shaky start to the season, Johnson has flourished as one of the best performing bench players in the league. Signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, Johnson has shown his vast array of skills having gotten in the best shape of his life. As Johnson himself noted recently:
"“Everything I could do, now I’m doing it faster, now I’m doing it stronger, and now I’m doing it longer.”"
In his 38 appearances thus far, Johnson is averaging a career-best 11.6 points per game to go along with 5.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 25.7 minutes per game. His efficiency has been most impressive, hitting at a 48.5 percent clip from the field and 37.1 percent from behind three.
The season started off in ordinary fashion for Johnson as he was still adjusting to being a member of the Heat. In a three game stretch, Johnson averaged 1.3 points and 5.0 rebounds, hitting on 1-of-13 overall from the field in 18.5 minutes per game. Fast forward the season and you can see how far he has come.
A recent four-game stretch saw Johnson average 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.2 steals. During this period he shot 55.6 percent from the field and an incredible 63.6 percent from behind including 3.5 made threes per game.
Johnson’s supreme level of versatility has been on show all season. His ability to bring the ball up the court, initiate the offence and set-up teammates has been a real feature. Furthermore, his ability to score from a number of areas on the floor makes him a tough matchup for any opposing team.
Out of contract at the end of the season, the Heat will not be the only team keen on securing Johnson’s services for the near future.
Check out highlights below of one of Johnson’s most impressive performances of the season. On the road against the Utah Jazz, Johnson posted 24 points, six rebounds and three assists in one of the Heat’s best wins of the season.
GRADE: A-
Wayne Ellington
Brought in this season to rectify the Heat’s lack of three-point shooting, Ellington has shown flashes of his true ability. However due to injury, Ellington has played in just 23 of the Heat’s 43 games this season. When he’s been available, Ellington has averaged 10.8 points per game on 40.8 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from downtown.
Now playing for his seventh team in his eighth season in the league, Ellington is enjoying a career-high in minutes played. He’s averaging 26.3 per game. and has been utilised both in a starting role and coming off the bench throughout the course of the season.,
Ellington is your prototypical streak shooter, with the ability to get red hot and ice cold on a game to game basis. Out of his 23 games played this season, he has had seven games where he has hit four or more three-pointers. During these games, he has nailed 28 three-pointers at a 50 percent clip. He’s also had 11 games where he has hit one or less three-pointers, for a return of 13.3 percent.
As the following numbers clearly demonstrate, Ellington is largely one-dimensional scorer. Through 23 games, 63.6 percent of Ellington’s total field goal attempts have been made without dribbling the ball. And when extending this to just one dribble, this number rises to 82.3 percent.
That’s not to say this is a weakness. Ellington is certainly one of the more proficient players in the league in moving without the ball to get good open looks. For the season, 59.8 percent of Ellington’s total shot attempts have been made at least four feet away from the nearest defender. He has managed to hit these at a 39.1 percent clip.
Missing the first 16 games due to a thigh contusion suffered in the preseason certainly hasn’t helped Ellington’s cause. Therefore, he will be using the second half of the season to convince the Heat that they should have him in their future plans.
Check out the highlights of Ellington’s best performance thus far as a member of the Heat. In his second game of the season, Ellington hit 22 points including 5-of-9 from behind three as the Heat completed a road win against the Denver Nuggets.
GRADE: C
Luke Babbitt
All teams require players for certain roles, and that’s exactly how Babbitt has been used during first season in Miami.
Babbitt has started in 21 games this season despite only averaging 15.7 minutes per appearance. For the season, Babbitt is averaging 4.4 points and 2.1 rebounds on 36.2 percent shooting from the field and 34.7 percent from behind three.
That three-point percentage is well below his career average of nearly 40 percent, and only four times as Babbitt scored at least 10 points in a game this season.
Babbitt’s role has primarily been to space the floor to enable players such as Dragic, Waiters and Tyler Johnson to drive the lanes and either look to score or set up teammates on the perimeter. At least, that’s what the Heat hoped. That hasn’t quite worked, though he’s still starting most games because of Miami’s shortage of bodies.
Babbitt’s best performance for the season came in a January 13 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. Playing 31 minutes, Babbitt posted 16 points on 4-of-7 from behind three, along with four rebounds, two assists and two blocks.
Grade: D-
Willie Reed
One bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for the Heat has been the continued improvement of backup center Willie Reed. With Hassan Whiteside leading the way for the Heat in the middle, finding meaningful playing time has not come easy for Reed. In 34 games, Reed is averaging 5.1 points and 4.8 rebounds in 13.7 minutes per game. He has shot an impressive 56.8 percent from the field.
In only his second full season in the league, Reed’s athleticism and intensity during games has been hard not to notice. Most importantly, Reed has made the most of the rare occasions when Whiteside has been out of the lineup. In four games as a starter, Reed played 26.3 minutes per game and averaged 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks while shooting at a 65.0 percent clip.
Having now played just 73 career NBA games, Reed’s improvement has been both dramatic and exciting. The problem facing the Heat is what to do with Reed this coming offseason. Still just 26 and with great upside, a number of teams will certainly be interested in Reed’s rising paint presence.
Check the video below for highlights of Reed’s career game this season. Matched against the Phoenix Suns, Reed posted 22 points on 11-of 16 shooting, 18 rebounds and two blocks in 32 minutes.
Grade: B+
Derrick Williams
Williams was yet another newcomer to the Heat this season. But unlike the aforementioned Ellington, Waiters, Reed and James Johnson, Williams has not received the warmth of the Heat coaching staff. He commenced the season playing a total of three minutes in the first seven games of the season. He has now played just 23 out of the 43 total games despite only being unavailable once through injury.
Many, including Williams, thought that with the absence of Chris Bosh, Williams would be presented with the perfect opportunity to live up to his billing as the No.2 overall pick of the 2011 NBA draft. But this has been far from the case. In his 11 games as starter, Williams has averaged just 16.7 minutes per game. For the season as a whole, Williams is averaging 6.3 points and 3.1 rebounds while shooting just 39.3 percent from the field.
Williams has demonstrated to be a very streaky perimeter shooter. Therefore, in his primary role as a stretch power forward, it can make it difficult for the coaching staff to have full faith in his abilities. Having said that, the confidence shown in him from the start of season has been extremely scarce.
Williams has played a total of 369 minutes for the season. By way of comparison, Luke Babbitt has played 534 minutes and Rodney McGruder has played 1005. Considering the season the Heat are having, this makes no sense. Williams’ talent level and upside is clearly superior to these two, and the returns produced by Babbitt do not justify these playing time discrepancies.
Having been rewarded with the faith shown in other newcomers this season, the Heat could do a lot worse than to give Williams some meaningful, consistent playing time in the back half of the season.
Williams’ best scoring game this season came in a road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. In 31 minutes off the bench, WIlliams notched 17 points on 6-of-11 from the field, along with two rebounds and two steals.
Check below for highlights of Williams’ 13 point, four rebound performance against the Charlotte Hornets.
GRADE: D
Rodney McGruder
McGruder was the final man to make the Heat roster this season, but has so far exceeded almost all expectations. McGruder ranks fourth on the Heat in total minutes played, averaging 25.8 per game overall. In his 39 appearances, McGruder is averaging 5.6 points, 3,5 rebounds and 1.5 assists. He has shot 38.2 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from downtown.
McGruder has impressed the coaching staff with his relentless hustle and selfless play. His offensive role is primarily as a spotup shooter. So far 71.6 percent of his fields goals made have been assistsed by a teammate. Coupled with this is the fact that 73 percent of his field goal attempts have been made without taking a dribble. He has converted on 41.6 percent of these attempts.
McGruder’s larger than expected playing time has had much to do with the plague of injuries that have beset the Heat throughout the course of this season. Ideally he would be suited to a reserve role, where he has shown the ability to defend more than capably at the 2 and 3 spots.
Click below for the highlights of McGruder’s best game to date. Playing 22 minutes of the bench, McGruder hit 14 points including 3-of-4 from behind three.
GRADE: C
Josh McRoberts
McRoberts has been a virtual punching bag amongst Heat fans since his arrival in 2014. Due to the large amount of time he has missed through various injuries, the Heat have been unable to benefit from the unique skills McRoberts brings to the table. At 6-foot-10, McRoberts’ passing ability and reading of the game is a unique skill set for a player at his position.
This season has more or less been an extension of his first two seasons in Miami. McRoberts has so far played in just 22 games, making for a total of just 81 games in now his third season with the Heat. He is currently sidelined indefinitely with a stress fracture to his foot, simply adding to a long list of various ailments.
McRoberts has averaged 4.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 17.3 minutes per game. His three-point shooting has been his most impressive trait, converting at a 41.4 percent clip for the season.
McRoberts’ most productive part of the season came in a three game stretch in early December. In 27.1 minutes per game, McRoberts posted 10.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists while shooting 48.o percent overall from the field.
In the third year of a four-year contract, the Heat will be hoping for some return on investment when McRoberts returns later this season.
GRADE: D
Udonis Haslem
Having played in just 13 games this season and a total of 111 minutes, Haslem’s contributions are mainly restricted to off the court and in the locker room. Averaging just 2.1 points and 2.2 rebounds per game, Haslem is clearly on his last legs.
With the Heat losing an abundance of experience over the offseason, Haslem’s role as a mentor and veteran presence was going to crucial regardless of his on court contributions.
Haslem’s largest on court contribution this season came against the Detroit Pistons on January 1. Playing 21 minutes, Haslem posted six points and six rebounds in a home loss for the Heat.
Although his on court contributions have just about wound up, it’s safe to assume that Haslem will be in and around the Heat organisation for many years to come. Much like another Heat fan favourite in Alonzo Mourning, a front office job beckons for Haslem post career.
Next: 5 realistic free agent targets for 2017