The Miami Heat have taken the league by storm since January 17. One of the keys to their success has been the way head coach Erik Spoelstra has formulated lineups that provide the most punch.
Up until January 15 of this season, the Miami Heat were a miserable team.
The following is what they had accomplished up until that point:
- Win/loss record: 11-30 (Ranked 29th)
- Three-point percentage: 33.7 (28th)
- Points per game: 98.3 (29th)
- Offensive rating: 101.0 (27th)
- Defensive rating: 104.9 (12th)
- Net rating: -4.4 (24th)
Since then, the turnaround has been simply phenomenal, as is evident by the following numbers:
- Win/loss record: 21-5 (Ranked 1st)
- Three-point percentage: 40.3 (1st)
- Points per game: 108.6 (8th)
- Offensive rating: 110.6 (6th)
- Defensive rating: 102.2 (2nd)
- Net rating: 8.3 (2nd)
Other smaller details have also emerged. Prior to January 17, the Heat were hitting just 37.8 percent of their wide open three-point shots (six-plus feet from the nearest defender) which ranked 16th in the league. Since then, they are ranked first, hitting on 48.3 percent of such attempts.
Another noticeable difference has been the Heat’s conversion of three-point shots classified as above the break 3’s. Their accuracy has risen from 31.7 percent over the first 41 games to 39.8 percent during their current hot streak.
You could point to a number of factors that have contributed to the drastic improvements in production and efficiency. But the overall health of the roster is one major contributing factor.
Prior to January 17, here are the games missed by key Heat players due to injury:
- Justise Winslow – 23 games (out for season)
- Dion Waters – 20 games
- Wayne Ellington – 20 games
- Josh Richardson – 13 games
- Goran Dragic – 8 games
- James Johnson – 5 games
- Willie Reed – 5 games
Naturally, such a disruption in regards to player availability is going to have some effect on the team’s performance. But when you factor in that four of the six players listed above are new to the team (Waiters, Ellington, Johnson and Reed), this effect is going to be more pronounced.
So with these players now regularly available, continuity and familiarity has started to kick in. And the results have thus far spoken for themselves. The Heat’s recent 13-game winning streak even drew praise from recently departed Heat legend Dwayne Wade:
"“We did it with Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Ray Allen. This streak right here to me is as just impressive with guys names that aren’t as big as we sit here today.”"
One way of analyzing the Heat’s recent/current hot streak is to see which lineups have been successful during this period of time.
Note: Due to such a small sample size of minutes played together, 5-man lineups will not be analyzed.
Best 4-Man Lineup Overall
Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters
Qualifier: Minimum 19 games together, minimum 5 minutes per game together
- Games: 19
- Minutes: 111
- Offensive Rating: 125.2
- Defensive Rating: 103.1
- Net Rating: 22.1 (Ranked 8th)
Without doubt, these four players have been among the most influential during the Heat’s past 25 games. And not only have they produced the best net rating of all the Heat’s four-man lineups, they have played the equal most fourth-quarter minutes.
This quartet has played together in 11 fourth quarters during this recent span, producing an impressing 9.8 net rating.
As a unit, this group has shot 52.8 percent from the field and has been a +48 during their time on the floor.
Best Single Game 4-Man Lineup – Minimum 5 minutes
January 25 vs Brooklyn Nets
Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Willie Reed, Dion Waiters
- Minutes: 10
- Offensive Rating: 177.0
- Defensive Rating: 62.6
- Net Rating: 114.4
The Heat won this game on the road, 108-105, despite trailing by 18 points to commence the final term. This was in large part due to the contributions of this quartet, who played all their 10 minutes together in the fourth quarter. As a team, the Heat outscored the Nets 38-17 with Dion Waiters leading the way with 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting from the field.
Best 3-Man Lineup Overall
Wayne Ellington, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson
Qualifier: Minimum 20 games, minimum 11 minutes per game
- Games: 20
- Minutes: 231
- Offensive Rating: 109.9
- Defensive Rating: 94.8
- Net Rating: 15.0
Without an all-star on the roster, the depth of the Heat has been a key component of their recent hot stretch. And these three have been instrumental in providing an enormous spark off the bench. Having had a half season acclimating themselves to playing alongside one another, the results are now speaking for themselves.
James Johnson’s ball-handling and playmaking capabilities have surprised nearly everyone throughout the league, whilst Ellington and Tyler Johnson have formed a key part of the Heat’s league-leading three-point accuracy since January 17.
Ellington and James Johnson are doing their best to remain in Miami beyond this season, whereas Tyler Johnson is demonstrating that the Heat’s hefty investment in him this past summer was justified.
Best One-Game 3-Man Lineup – Minimum 11 minutes
January 25 vs Brooklyn Nets
Willie Reed, Dion Waiters, Okaro White
- Minutes: 12
- Offensive Rating: 157.3
- Defensive Rating: 64.6
- Net Rating: 92.7
This represented the fifth game of this 25-game stretch, and was a key impetus for the eventual 13-game winning streak. With some of the starting unit having poor games, the Heat’s bench stepped up and delivered big time. Reed’s +34 while on the floor is a career-high, whereas White’s 10 points and seven rebounds was in just fourth career games with the Heat.
Earlier this season, head coach Erik Spoelstra showered praise on Reed’s impressive development:
"“All he does is work with Juwan (Howard) to try to get better, work at his craft to earn his minutes, earn his opportunities….So when somebody puts in that much time, you’re very happy for him when he’s able to produce like that.”"
Best 2-Man Lineup Overall
Wayne Ellington, James Johnson
Qualifier: Minimum 20 games, Minimum 16 minutes per game
- Games: 25
- Minutes: 446
- Offensive Rating: 109.0
- Defensive Rating: 95.1
- Net Rating: 13.9
The two journeyman, both selected in the first round of the 2009 NBA draft, have found a great niche playing alongside one another. Having shared the court on just 16 occasions in the first half of the season, Ellington and Johnson have certainly found a great familiarity with one another.
Johnson’s ball-handling combined with Ellington’s ability to play off the ball makes them a terrific duo together off the bench. Further, each of these veterans’ physical transformations since arriving in Miami is a credit to both themselves and the Heat’s conditioning staff.
Johnson commenced his career with the Heat weighing in at 274 pounds and 14.5 percent body fat. His transformation has been remarkable, as Johnson himself says:
"“I’m not finished. I’m 238 [pounds] right now and 6.75 [percent body fat]. So, I’m just going to keep going, see how far it takes me. I feel like that the more I lose the more I unleash skills that I didn’t think I was capable of having or doing.”"
Ellington has also changed his body shape significantly. After arriving at 222 pounds, he is now down to 203 pounds and just 6.5 percent body fat. As Ellington puts it:
"“My body feels good. I feel as strong as I’ve been in a long time….I’m so glad that I was able to come here and really focus on those things. It’s done an amazing thing for me. I feel like I’m having one of the best seasons of my career so far.”"
Best Single Game 2-Man Lineup – Minimum 16 minutes
February 4 vs Philadelphia 76ers
Luke Babbitt, Hassan Whiteside
The game was a blowout, with Whiteside hitting the ground running with 17 points and 11 rebounds in the first quarter, on his way to 30 points and 20 rebounds in just 27 minutes of action. Babbitt for his part was more modest in his statistical input, as has been the case most off the season. But his primary role of spreading the floor has been highly serviceable, where in this case Babbitt was a +17 while on the floor in his 25 minutes of play.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra was effusive recently in his praise of Whiteside:
"I think in the last six weeks he’s played the best winning basketball he’s ever played in a Miami Heat uniform. It’s not his best statistical stretch and he loves it. He’s becoming a great teammate, he’s enjoying impacting winning and I don’t want to put a ceiling on that either. Hopefully it will be another two, three, four levels before the year is done.”"
The Home Stretch
The Heat went down gallantly Sunday to the Indiana Pacers, on the second night of a back-to-back. Without the services of point guard Goran Dragic due to swelling in his right eye, the Heat fell 102-98. Despite outscoring the Pacers’ bench 39-26, the Heat received just 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting between starters Rodney McGruder, Luke Babbitt and Josh Richardson.
However, when the Heat’s leading scorer is unavailable, other starters needed to step up to the plate. And that didn’t happen. This leaves the Heat with a 32-35 record, tied with the Chicago Bulls and just half a game behind the eighth seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
With their next game not until Wednesday, which kicks off a 5-game home stand, the Heat should be fully refreshed as they embark on the final 15 games of the season.
With 80 percent of the season behind them and an increased comfort level evident in their recent play, head coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff will enter this final stretch confident in the fact that they have found the lineups which they feel gives the best opportunity to succeed.
And one of the keys to executing a successful run home could lie within his recent quote from Spoelstra:
"“That’s what we’ve been trying to establish, the ball movement. Our guys executing details, getting our attackers in the paint, working a good shot to a great shot.”"
With their next four opponents at home all Western Conference teams with sub-500 records, the Heat will only have themselves to blame if they don’t capitalise on the opportunity in front of them.