Despite James Johnson having a career year, there is no guarantee he will return to the Miami Heat. Here we look at some of his potential replacements.
The rise of James Johnson this past season with the Miami Heat has been highly documented, and for good reason.
In the season prior to joining the Heat, Johnson posted the very modest numbers of 5.0 points and 2.2 rebounds in 16.2 minutes per game as a member of the Toronto Raptors. Johnson played in just 57 games that season, primarily due to an assortment of injuries. Furthermore his playing time, even when healthy, was very sporadic and inconsistent.
This lack of opportunity even led Johnson to tweeting the following in the midst of that season:
#Mood. Under-utilized
— James Johnson (@IamJJ16) November 26, 2015
So it came as no surprise that Johnson bet on himself this past summer, signing a one-year, $4 million deal.
Johnson’s breakout season for the Heat was not only impressive, but unexpected. It’s not often that a player on their fifth team in eight seasons makes such a significant impact. In 76 games, Johnson averaged 12.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 27.4 minutes per game. As a result, he is now among the favorites for this season’s sixth man off the year honors.
And when thrust into the starting lineup for the final four games of the season in the race to the playoffs, Johnson didn’t disappoint. Over these four games, Johnson averaged 16.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 37.0 minutes per game.
A significant reason behind Johnson’s transformation on the court was his body transformation off the court. Upon signing with the Heat, Johnson checked in at 274 pounds and 14.5 percent body fat. By mid-season, Johnson had trimmed down to 238 pounds and 6.75 percent body fat.
Naturally, Johnson’s achievements this past season have garnered the attention of teams league-wide. And as a result, some lucrative offers are likely to be heading Johnson’s way this summer.
In the event that the Heat are unable to come to terms with Johnson this offseason, here is a list of potential replacements the Heat may have in mind.
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets
Like Parker, Gallinari also has a history with knee surgery. The ACL in Gallinari’s left knee forced him to miss the entire 2013-14 season. Since his return, Gallinari has played just 59, 53 and 63 games respectively over the past three seasons.
Therefore, health has been a clear issue for Gallinari.
But when he has taken the court, Gallinari’s production has been exceptional.
This past season, Gallinari averaged 18.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 33.9 minutes per game. He hit at a 38.9 percent clip from downtown and an outstanding 90.2 percent from the free-throw line. Furthermore, his offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 112.1 ranked 12th among all forwards who played at least 25 minutes per game.
One of Gallinari’s premiere games this past season was a late season game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing 38 minutes, Gallinari notched 34 points and 10 rebounds, hitting 12-of-20 from the field and 4-of-9 from three-point range.
As can be seen from these highlights, Gallinari demonstrated a full array of options on the offensive end. Taking it to the hole, running off down-screens to catch and shoot, posting up and spotting up from three were just some of his skills on display.
Unlike Johnson, Gallinari is less of a facilitator, as evidenced by his career average of two assists per game. As an example, this past season, Gallinari dished out five or more assists on just three occasions. The fact that he ranked 33rd in usage rate among all forwards who played at least 25 minutes per game illustrates how much he plays off the ball.
Gallinari has a player option for next season to take up his $16.1 million contract. Still just 28, Gallinari is virtually certain to opt out his contract and the test the free agency market. A comparable contract from last season’s free agent is Ryan Anderson of the Houston Rockets.
Anderson signed a four-year, $80 million contract, primarily due to his abilities as a stretch 4. If the Heat finds themselves in search of a Johnson replacement, determining Gallinari’s value and whether or not he can stay on the court, will certainly be key deciding factors.
Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
It was a season of extreme’s for Mirotic, who just completed his third year in the league. Overall, he posted 10.6 points and 5.5 rebounds in 24.0 minutes per game. Recently turned 26, it was expected that Mirotic would take a leap this season in terms of his productivity as a player. Instead, it was his patience that would be tested, as he started in just 15 of his 70 games played.
Following three consecutive non-appearances (two Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision and a complete Did Not Dress) late in the season, Mitoric took off in the final 16 games of the season. Over this span, he averaged 15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 28.4 minutes per game. Notably, Mirotic shot 43.5 percent from downtown on 7.2 attempts per game, and overall was a +139 during this span.
It should come as no surprise that Mirotic started in 13 of these final 16 games. Surrounded by better talent in the starting lineup enabled Mirotic to get the open looks he desires, with the results speaking for themselves. In fact, the Bulls were 10-5 for the season with Mirotic in the starting lineup.
Mirotic posted 20 or more points on eight occasions, hitting 61.5 percent from the field and 51.4 percent from, three-point range. The Bulls were 7-1 in these games. On the flip side, Mirotic scored in single figures on 36 occasions, shooting 29.4 percent from the field and 19.9 percent from behind three during these games. The Bulls were 17-19 over this span.
Mirotic scored a season-high 28 points on three occasions, all in the space of four games. One of these performances was during a crucial home win against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. Playing 38 minutes, Mirotic hit 9-of-14 from the field, including 6-of-11 from behind three. His team-high +13 while on the court illustrates Mirotic’s importance when he is firing.
Playing alongside an inside presence such as Hassan Whiteside, and an attacking point guard in Goran Dragic, could provide an intriguing mix for the Heat. The main caveat on Mirotic’s game as a whole has been on the defensive end. This would likely be the main concerning factor when the Heat weigh up the skills that Mirotic has to offer.
Ersan Ilyasova, Atlanta Hawks
A player in the same mold as Mirotic, Ilyasova is the definition of a journeyman. After spending seven seasons in Milwaukee, Ilyasova has now played for five teams in the last two seasons.
Last season, Ilyasova’s 53-game stint with the Philadelphia 76ers produced a career-high 14.8 points per game, which included shooting at a 35.9 percent clip from behind three on 5.6 attempts per game. One strong feature during his time in Philadelphia was his conversion on three-point attempts considered wide open, per NBA.com. On 1.8 attempts per game, Ilyasova converted at a 45.8 percent clip.
On a per-36 minutes basis, Ilyasova’s productivity in Philadelphia was impressive. Over these 53 games, Ilyasova averaged 19.6 points and 7.8 rebounds. His most productive game overall last season came in road loss to the Chicago Bulls. Playing 35 minutes, Ilyasova notched 31 points and 11 rebounds, which included 112-of-19 overall from the field.
As can be seen, Ilyasova has a variety of scoring alternatives. Having played alongside both Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel for a good portion of last season, and Andre Drummond in Detoit the season prior, Ilyasova has shown he can become a serviceable compliment alongside a strong inside presence.
This therefore makes him prepared to play in tandem with a center such as the Heat’s Whiteside.
JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies
Green made tremendous strides last season, his third in the league. Starting 75 of his 77 games, Green averaged 8.9 points and 7.1 rebounds in 27.3 minutes per game. Furthermore, he shot 50.0 percent overall from the field and 37.9 percent from three-point range.
With the modern NBA in search of front court players who can stretch the floor, Green fit the bill in Memphis with new head coach David Fizdale. All-star forward Zach Randolph and his old school game were regulated to the bench, with the younger and much more athletic Green thrust into the starting lineup.
Prior to this season, Green had attempted 57 total three-pointers over 102 games. This season alone, Green attempted 145. On top of Green’s ability to shoot from the perimeter, his athletic ability on the defensive end enables him to guard a variety of player types and sizes. As coach Fizdale noted during last season:
"“He is a part of the identity and the fabric,” Fizdale said. “I think he’s a future first team all-defender. I think he’s that swiss army knife defender that teams are always looking for, so he’s been great for us.”"
From an offensive standpoint, Green’s premier game last season came during a road win against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Playing 30 minutes, Green notched a career-high 29 points and seven rebounds, which included hitting 8-of-11 from the field and 12-of-12 from the free-throw line. While he hit just one three-pointer in this game, Green managed to hit two or more three-pointers on 14 occasions last season.
Recently, Fizdale added further praise for Green:
"“I’ve actually held JaMychal back a little bit, because I feel he has some ability to score more. Finding him some touches can be tough because of all the options we have, but he’s been invaluable. His ability to make open threes, defend multiple positions, loyal, being tough. He’s diligent about being in shape and working on his game, a fantastic complement to our group.”"
That’s some high praise, particularly considering Green’s relatively short period thus far in the NBA. The Grizzlies will be able to make a qualifying offer, and it’s fair to say that Green will be offered plenty more than his recent $980,431 salary. The Heat, however, could make Green an offer and hope Memphis doesn’t match it.
Decision Time
Determining Johnson’s value could be one the larger sticking points with the Heat’s negotiations this offseason.
At age 30, this upcoming deal is most likely to be Johnson’s last opportunity to snap up a lucrative deal. On a recent episode of the Dan Le Batard Show on ESPN Radio, ESPN’s Zach Lowe predicted the Heat would offer a two-year deal in the $25-28 million range.
The caveat though will arrive when an opposing team presents a three or even four-year proposal to Johnson. Considering Johnson’s journeyman status up until this point of his career, it’d be hard to blame him if he accepted such a deal.
If that were to happen, the Heat would need to target a player and move quickly.
It is quite clear that while Riley is still in charge, the Heat will be in win-now mode. And from the players mentioned above, the player that would make the most sense is Gallinari.
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From an immediate upside point of view, Gallinari ticks the most boxes. At 28, Gallinari will be at his peak in the coming few years. If the Heat were able to bring back their other big name free agent in Dion Waiters, a quartet of Goran Dragic, Whiteside, Waiters and Gallinari would present head coach Erik Spoelstra with some serious offensive firepower.
However, as alluded to earlier, acquiring Gallinari certainly won’t come cheap. That could be the price in not re-signing Johnson sooner rather than later.