The Miami Heat enter training camp with many of the same faces from last season that produced a .500 record. What do they need to address to ensure playoff positioning this year?
Much like many of their fellow teams in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat opted to bring back the majority of their core from the previous years. Aside from the Boston Celtics, the same can be said for key players in the conference including Toronto, Washington and Cleveland, so the Heat will need to find new ways to use familiar faces and that process starts in training camp.
Because much of the core is the same, there aren’t a lot of questions in regard to personnel fit. Instead, the Heat will be tasked with sorting out their depth. Granted, a great problem to have and one a number of teams in the league would like to be dealing with, but it yields a number of questions.
Along with the re-signing of Dion Waiters and James Johnson, the Heat also brought in former Celtic Kelly Olynyk, drafted Kentucky big man Bam Adebayo and will also regain the services of Justise Winslow, who missed a majority of last season due to a shoulder injury. While that looks like a fairly uneventful offseason, it bolsters a roster that turned in one of the best records in the league after the All-Star break.
With these new additions, Erik Spoelstra is armed with one of his most versatile rosters during his tenure, with the ability to match any style of basketball. With his positionless approach, the early stages of the season starting with training camp will be the most exploratory period as Spolestra puts every player into a number of scenarios and tries out various lineup combinations.
Much of the remaining questions for the Heat heading into camp revolve around the central idea of how they will gain an advantage on the top tier in the East. The goal this year is playoffs, not just an admirable fight from the depths of the standings. To do that, they’ll have to answer these questions.
The Small Forward Situation
The Miami Heat have a deep, crowded backcourt with two established starters and a host of other options for that third starting guard position. Next to Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters, the final backcourt spot is up for grabs with Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson and Rodney McGruder all competing for the starting job in camp.
With James Johnson likely to anchor the frontcourt with Hassan Whiteside, the Heat have some options for the third starter. The ideal situation would be for Winslow to return to form and grow into the franchise’s centerpiece moving forward (he recently told the Palm Beach Post that his injured shoulder is “100 percent”), but if he isn’t ready and needs to start the season on the bench, the odds then favor fellow third-year player Richardson.
A wildcard in this race will undoubtedly be McGruder, who held the position for much of last year and proved to be one of Spoelstra’s most consistent options throughout the turbulent season. McGruder will add a defensive flare next to the offensive output of Dragic and Waiters. Teaming him with Johnson on the defensive end could also prove beneficial to the Heat, coming out of the gate with a stout defense. Plus, McGruder is looking to improve his 3-point shooting, adding another weapon to his growing arsenal.
The decision on the third starter will likely come down to a couple of things, including how Spoelstra wants to play early in the game or what type of style he’s looking for. Last year, it was James and Tyler Johnson who came off the bench and led a strong second unit despite being worthy of starting solely on talent alone.
Whether its Winslow, McGruder, Richardson or Johnson, the Heat will not have a depth problem in the backcourt this year to help Dragic and Waiters lead the team, but who emerges as the leader will be one of the most intriguing storylines in camp.
Working in the New Faces
Much of the storyline with the Heat this offseason centered around the returning players, but don’t overlook the new additions, mainly Kelly Olynyk who surprised everyone signing on for four years in Miami.
The rangy, stretch 5 may not have been on the Heat’s radar but, as the Boston Celtics changed the face of their franchise, Miami saw the opportunity to further bolster their frontcourt after the loss of Willie Reed.
Olynyk’s fit on this Heat team will be very interesting, especially early on as Spoelstra puts him in different situations to find the best way to utilize him. He could easily play alongside Hassan Whiteside as a stretch four to allow the big man more room to operate in the middle (Olynyk shot 35 percent from 3 last year and 58 percent from the corner) all the while anchoring smaller lineups without giving up any defensive leverage.
One of the main reasons the Heat found themselves attracted to Olynyk is his elite defensive acumen in the pick and roll game, something that hurt Miami last season. Olynyk is in the 99th percentile defending the ball handler in a pick and roll, forcing a turnover 31 percent of the time and allowing just 0.26 points per possession. For comparison, Draymond Green allows 0.81 points per possession and forces a turnover almost 16 percent of the time.
Olynyk will give the Heat a much steadier presence in the frontcourt while Whiteside continues to mature as a center. He’s not as physically imposing, but Olynyk will allow Spoelstra to throw a variety of looks at opposing big men from the power of Whiteside to the finesse and toughness of Olynyk as well as a wildcard in James Johnson.
Unleashing the Heat’s Secret Weapon
Speaking of James Johnson, while last year was the start of a new chapter for the longtime journeyman, this year marks the continuation of that with the expectation to take his game to another level after awarded with a long-term contract.
Johnson will surely take on a bigger role on both ends of the floor, much like he did towards the end of last season. Spoelstra routinely trusted him with the ball in his hands at the end of games (missed jumper led to Whiteside’s tip-in at Detroit and a bad offensive foul call prevented a game-winner against Cleveland) not just as a shooter but as an overall initiator. Johnson’s versatility in the Heat’s system had a direct impact on their 30-11 turnaround and, if he can replicate (and possibly enhance) that production for an entire season, he’ll have no problem earning the postseason accolades he deserved this summer.
Defensively, Heat fans know all about just how important Johnson was to one of the league’s best defensive units. In an isolation situation, there was no one better in Miami and nearly the league, with Johnson grading out with defensive stalwarts like Zach Randolph, Jimmy Butler and Andre Iguodala, allowing just 0.49 points per possession while allowing a score just 24 percent of the time (fourth in the league of players who played more than 65 games).
Over the course of the season, Johnson became a swiss army knife of sorts, even anchoring smaller lineups at the center position, then turning around and bringing the ball up the floor. Expect more of that this season especially with more depth in the frontcourt with the addition of Olynyk (who could form a deadly pick and roll defensive tandem with Johnson) and return of Winslow.
Spoelstra has always had a knack for further elevating a player’s game. It happened with LeBron James and Chris Bosh, even veterans like Shane Battier and Ray Allen. It can happen again with James Johnson, who will again find himself playing (and defending) every position on the floor.
The question will remain what exactly Spoelstra intends to inject into his game, which will unlock yet another level of potential.
The Small Ball Revolution
Heading into this season, the Miami Heat might have the most favorable roster for Erik Spoelstra’s coaching style. This season could mark the absolute peak of the coach’s positionless philosophy as he has the ability to experiment with a number of different five-man combinations.
In the frontcourt, the Heat have size, finesse and versatility in their options and in the backcourt, a heap of players who excel both offensive and defensively. There will be no style of basketball the Heat cannot play, but there could be a sense that they’ll drift toward creating mismatches by going small, while emphasizing shooting.
In wins last season, the Heat scored over 30 percent of their points from 3 (sixth in the league). The 3-pointer became the driving force in the Heat’s offense as they moved away from trying to push the pace (21st in the league) instead focusing on high-efficiency scoring. This led them to a 55 percent effective field goal percentage in wins (12th in the league) and gave the Heat an advantage as their offensive rating finally inflated, leading to a 11.4 net rating in victories.
To continue this success, the Heat will need shooting from all positions, meaning that lineups featuring James Johnson at the center position surrounded by ball-handlers and shooters will continue to be a go-to for Spoelstra. As will surrounding Whiteside with capable shooters like Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic. This trend is also why its so important for players like Winslow, McGruder and Richardson to bring a reliable shooting game to training camp.
If the Heat can get the type of development they’re looking for out of their guards and forwards, Spoelstra now has almost endless lineup possibilities. But what made them successful last year should weigh heavily on their initial approach—a steady diet of long-range shooting.
The New Rookie and the Old Rookies
When the Miami Heat selected Bam Adebayo, nobody knew much about him other than he wasn’t Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell, a player the Heat reportedly coveted before Utah swooped in with a last minute trade. But Adebayo quickly turned heads with his play in the Summer League begging the question of what type of impact
With Adebayo, it’s important to understand that the Heat will take a very slow approach to his development. He was drafted as somewhat of a project, and will be treated as such. It wouldn’t be surprising if he started the year with a stint in Sioux Falls, but he’ll land on the official roster sooner than later. A quick look at his Summer League activity recalls one of Spoelstra’s favorite qualities—a player who “makes you” play them.
But can Adebayo develop in the areas that will help the Heat? Yes, he is physically imposing and is relentless on the glass, but can he embrace the Heat’s defensive principles to harness that energy for efficiency? Offensively, can he continue to work on his jumper and be able to score from different areas on the floor?
These are all legitimate questions heading into a rookie season and since it is a rookie season, patience is something Adebayo is afforded. He doesn’t have to contribute on opening night, but his development will certainly be something to watch as he gets his feet wet in the NBA.
Two of the Heat’s younger players who are running out of the aforementioned patience, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, also have all eyes on them heading into training camp. Both have battled through injuries and finally both will come into camp healthy looking to step up as the centerpieces of the team.
Winslow was the prize in the first round two years ago and stood out with his effort and grit on the defensive end. Offensively, major questions remain as a wildly inconsistent jumper plagued him constantly and made him a liability to use as a featured scorer.
Richardson on the other hand was fearless offensively, not afraid to integrate himself into the system. He made waves his rookie year by shooting 46 percent from 3 and while the volume went up in year two, the percentage and efficiency went down (just 33 percent from 3 and under 40 percent from the field).
While the time to develop would typically be afforded to a third-year player, this is a contract year for Richardson and the Heat have a big decision to make as to whether or not to continue paying the Tennessee guard. He’ll be eligible for a $42 million extension and if the Heat don’t grant the deal, he’ll become a restricted free agent at season’s end.
Next: 3 Miami Heat lineups to look forward to for next season
Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow are two of the most important players coming into this training camp and this season. Their development and contributions will be the difference between the Heat making an impact atop the Eastern Conference or landing another lottery spot.