The Miami Heat relied on the 3-point shot to revive their season last year, and will need it once again as they look to build towards the playoffs.
It’s only been three games, but already we’ve seen the extreme importance of the Miami Heat’s 3-point shooting. On many nights, it will be the difference between winning and losing.
On opening night, the Heat struggled from deep going just 8-of-30 (27 percent), but bounced back over the next two games, where they made 14 3’s in each.
The formula for this edition of the Heat is simple: make the defense, respect your 3-point shot and the rest of the offense will open up. If the Heat have multiple legitimate shooting threats on the floor, their offensive spacing is maximized and the lanes for Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and others to get to the rim, widen significantly. All of this together, makes the Heat a handful on offense.
Although three games is a small sample size, the Heat have already shown what happens when they’re making 3’s, and what happens when they aren’t. More than that, we’ve seen how it affects the flow of the game and more importantly the score.
While this new generation Heat team is well-known for their grind-it-out attitude and playing high-level defense, a part of the squad’s identity is also wrapped up in 3-point shooting. Fans got to see the development of that last year, starting with guys like Wayne Ellington and Luke Babbitt. And have already been able to see it’s continuation, even via Kelly Olynyk, who just joined the group this summer.
Nailing the 3-ball game is one of Miami’s offensive priorities, so let’s take a look at how they’re doing so far this season.
The Good: The Offense is Working
One of the main points of emphasis for a head coach Erik Spoelstra offense, is stashing shooters at various weak points of the defensive rotations to increase the opportunities for an open 3. Thus far, the Heat are executing well and getting those shots up. They’re currently sitting at sixth in the league in attempts per game (33).
That number is important because one of the catalysts to the Heat’s incredible turnaround last year was their increased volume from deep, with their average per game reaching 29 during that run. 33 in the first three games suggests an increased commitment to producing more 3’s this year.
The Heat are again leaning on core offensive principles to get an efficient 3, which in their system is the open corner. Here on opening night against the Orlando Magic, the man on the island is Aaron Gordon, who must decide whether to help on Hassan Whiteside rolling to the basket, or stay at home on Olynyk positioned in the corner.
Gordon isn’t given much of a choice as both Terrence Ross and Nic Vucevic both fail to apply enough pressure to Dion Waiters, leaving Olynyk in the corner wide open for the 3.
This is a bread and butter look for the Heat, especially with the option to simply throw a lob to Whiteside presenting itself as well. A couple of nights later against the Indiana Pacers, we see a similar look.
There’s a slight variation on this set as Richardson positions himself on the wing to pull another defender, this time the Pacers’ best defender in Victor Oladipo, out of the play.
Olynyk sets a solid screen and rolls to the basket completely untouched, as Lance Stephenson and Al Jefferson don’t communicate a switch, Oladipo opted to pass the responsibility of guarding Olynyk on to the backline defender (Cory Joseph) who again was put in an impossible situation.
While Tyler Johnson missed the shot, the open look goes down as a positive for the Heat. The use of Richardson as a decoy in this set is interesting, considering he was on his way to a 10-point first quarter by this point and Oladipo had to stick by him at all costs. Thus, neutralizing the Pacers’ best defender.
The way defenses react when the Heat are hitting their 3’s consistently showed up in the game against the Atlanta Hawks, where they cashed in 13 in the first half alone. Late in the second quarter, the Heat were able to get a pair of point-blank layups off of a Dragic/Winslow pick and roll, due to the Hawks’ inability to leave shooters.
Dragic and Winslow are isolated on one side of the floor, with Olynyk, Tyler Johnson and Ellington (who made six 3’s of his own) on the other. Ellington, in the corner, is guarded by Taurean Prince, who cannot justify leaving him open yet again for another wide open three at this point. With two of the Heat’s best playmakers teaming up for a pick and roll, Atlanta’s Mike Muscala is in a difficult situation leading to the Winslow layup.
As the season continues, the Heat have to continue to pressure defenses with their outside shooting. On top of simply scoring more points, better shooting means more offensive spacing and more opportunities inside for Whiteside, Dragic and Waiters. So far, so good in this department.
The Bad: The Corner
One of the hallmarks of the Heat’s 3-point shooting is working both corners at will. Much of the Heat’s successful 3-point moments this season have come from the corner, but they are just 7-for-31 to start the year in a zone where they shot just a hair above 40 percent last year.
The attempts are at a promising pace, as the Heat averaged just over eight corner 3’s per game last year, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers who averaged over ten. The conversion rate will increase, as the Heat typically put their very best shooters in that position and the looks are normally wide open, but through three games it is something to keep an eye on.
The beauty of the corner 3 for the Heat is that much of it comes off of some type of action towards the rim (as we saw earlier) rather than the more popular perimeter ball rotation. The Heat attack the weak side of the defense with a quick pass (Waiters and Winslow have already excelled in this department) to catch the help defender way out of position.
Typically, this is best executed with a big man in the corner (remember Chris Bosh?) to pull a big out of the paint and into an uncomfortable zone, which makes the choice to start Olynyk next to Whiteside all the more interesting. So far, Olynyk is 5-for-10 from 3.
The corner 3 is something that definitely needs to start going in, as those are typically wide-open looks by a capable shooter. As Spoelstra likes to say, he plays the percentages, meaning the Heat won’t be going away from one of their most reliable 3-point producer any time soon.
The Ugly: Johnson & Johnson
For all of the good that both James Johnson and Tyler Johnson do for the Heat to directly impact winning, both have gotten off to very slow starts from 3.
Last year, the Brothers Johnson both contributed almost 3.5 3-point attempts per game and, of the players who played more than 60 games, were in the top five for percentage. With the loss of Rodney McGruder, it was even more important that both Johnson and Johnson came out strong from 3 and that just hasn’t happened. Tyler is 2-of-11 and James is 1-of-9, with neither shooting the ball with any type of confidence.
While James Johnson didn’t shoot the ball well in the preseason, Tyler Johnson did, making the regression all the more surprising. The encouraging thing for Tyler Johnson is that a vast majority of his 11 attempts are very good, open looks created within the offense. Only three can be argued to be contested, off-balance or rushed.
This is a smart play by Tyler Johnson to recognize that Winslow at least appeared to be spilling to the corner on the Waiters drive, which drew the Magic’s Jonathan Isaac as well as his defender D.J. Augustin. All Johnson had to do was shift to the wing, spot up and wait. It’s a miss, but this is a positive look for Tyler.
On the other hand, James Johnson is struggling. His shot selection, while good at times, needs to be more selective and far more patient. James is at his best when he allows his offense to come within the flow of the system, whether that dictates a 3 or a drive to the rim.
Too often has he resorted to quick, contested 3’s that don’t suit his game and certainly won’t inspire much confidence as he desperately searches for anything to spark his offensive game.
Again a miss, but this is a good look from Johnson and something he should look for in the future.
This is just a simple, effective play by Johnson to recognize he is being guarded by Muscala, who cannot guard on the perimeter, and put him in an uncomfortable situation to give himself a wide-open look.
With Johnson and Johnson, the concern level should be very low as these two are too good to stay this bad for much longer. But the Heat’s offense will continue to be stagnant at times when they are unable to score consistently.
Next: The Miami Heat are banged up against the San Antonio Spurs
The Heat host the San Antonio Spurs for a nationally televised matchup tonight, at 8 PM ET.