Miami Heat: Who will rule the Eastern Conference in 2018-19?

Will the Miami Heat reach the playoffs in 2018-19?

On July 1, Magic Johnson had a conversation that would change the trajectory of the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future.

Armed to the teeth with knowledge of the most talented basketball player on the planet, Johnson’s negotiation skills needed only 17 hours to resonate with LeBron James.

When Klutch Sports announced that James would join the Los Angeles Lakers on a four-year, $154 million deal, it was done without the fanfare and pyrotechnics that usually accompany Lakers news.

A simple white text document was all it took to reshape basketball:

James, who was the headliner of the NBA’s 2018-19 free agency class, deflated the excitement of the summer. Subsequent moves in the Eastern Conference paled in comparison to the James’ acquisition.

That is, until the Kawhi Leonard trade.

The Toronto Raptors made noise of their own, driving a stake through any remaining sense of loyalty in the NBA. Shipping DeMar DeRozan to the San Antonio Spurs brought a wealth of bad publicity, but in return, the Raptors remixed their future, hoping to run through the East in James’ absence.

Now, with the Cleveland Cavaliers likely out of the playoff picture – unless Tristan Thompson’s aspirations of stardom come to fruition – where does the rest of the East stand?

Does Leonard really make the Raptors into a contender, or was the move entirely lateral? The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers have a say in who is included in the East’s top teams, but will they find as much success as they did in 2017-18?

And of course, the Miami Heat exist as one of the conference’s many dark horses. In 2015-16 they benefited from a four-way tie to secure the third seed and first round home court advantage, but will they find similar success with a healthy Dion Waiters?

Let’s rank the Eastern Conference.

No. 1

The image of the East’s top team has already flashed in the NBA’s all-seeing crystal ball. Boston stands as the team to beat in 2018-19, having one of the deepest teams in the East in years.

Not deep like the 2012-13 New York Knicks, who though stacking a post-prime Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby would be Carmelo Anthony’s best backup.

These Celtics are deep.

Returning Gordon Hayward after missing the entirety of last season adds another offensive power on a team that saw a handful of breakout performances. Terry Rozier made his nickname, ‘Scary Terry’, go global last year, filling in for an injured Kyrie Irving and earning the respect of former New England Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown saw similar success, while Al Horford proved raw stats don’t matter when you’re the most unguardable player in the game.

Reintroducing a healthy Irving to the formula makes the Celtics the clear favorites for stonewalling the rest of the East out of the first seed. Toss in head coach Brad Steven’s basketball acumen and general manager Danny Ainge’s knack for well-played thievery, and the Celtics will be hard pressed to find a worthy opponent next season.

Ainge has already claimed success this offseason, re-signing Marcus Smart to a four-year, $52 million deal. Smart was the Celtics’ engine last season. His underwhelming performances in traditional box score metrics were surpassed by his freelancing nature and sheer hustle.

"“Our priority remains the same,” Ainge told NBA.com. “Our priority is still Marcus [Smart] in free agency, and that’s where we are.” He added, “We’re running a business and trying to win basketball games,” Ainge said. “It’s my job to be fiscally responsible, but we will pay the tax. We plan on being a taxpayer, for sure.”"

Whether Ainge settles for the tax or finds a way to weasel out of it, the Celtics are poised to have the best run at the Eastern Conference’s top seed.

Who’s Got Second Place?

It stands to reason that the teams that finished best last season will be set up swimmingly for a repeat performance. Excluding the Cavaliers, the Raptors and Sixers showed the most promise.

Both teams notched historic, 50-win campaigns. For the Raptors, 2017-18 marked their highest win total in franchise history, while the Sixers managed 50-plus wins for the first time since Allen Iverson’s one-man Finals run in 2000-01.

Thinking optimistically, the Raptors should have a hold on second place again. Leonard, when healthy, is an upgrade over DeRozan on both sides of the ball and creates a fresh look for a team facing stagnation.

However, Toronto will assuredly drop in the standings if Leonard finds himself not playing, which is a very real possibility considering how the 2017-18 season unfolded. Leonard has his sights set on Los Angeles. Even if a Paul George styled courting were to happen between Leonard and the Raptors, the Lakers will have the space to pick Leonard up while offering him the chance to play with the best player in the league, James.

No. 3 through No. 5

These rankings become murky if Leonard isn’t ready from the first jump ball in October. The Sixers, who are returning their entire starting five, will look similar to the 51-win team from last year.

Towering over conventional lineups with four of their starting five standing 6-foot-10, Philadelphia puts teams in a conundrum offensively and defensively. Their loss of Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova and now Nemanja Bjelica is a jab at their depth, but another season of experience for Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and Joel Embiid makes the Sixers as capable a team as any.

"“Our expectations have changed, and that’s a good thing,” Sixers head coach Brett Brown said after the playoffs. “I love the direction that we’re heading all over the place. We’re on to something special here.”"

Standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the Sixers however are the Indiana Pacers and Heat. The Pacers, who have added offensive generator Tyreke Evans, are reentering the playoff race with their own formula for success: take what the defenses give you.

The Pacers led all teams with attempts in the 15 to 19-foot range (mid-range) with 14 per game. An antiquated shot in the era of 3’s, the Pacers will keep teams guessing on offense as Victor Oladipo likely cruises to another All-Star appearance.

That leaves the Heat wrapping up the fifth seed.

In a perfect world, the injury mishaps Miami faced this year will be a non-issue in 2018-19. Hassan Whiteside missed out on 28 games last season, leaving the Heat 14-14 without him. With him healthy, Miami can turn at least a few of those L’s into W’s, and improve on their 44-38 finish from last season.

Bringing back Waiters and McGruder in full health only further benefits the Heat, who will have flexibility in their rotations. Though Goran Dragic is a year removed from his Eurobasket title and All-Star appearance, he should prove a capable floor general for Miami’s playoff push.

Final Standings:

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

Indiana Pacers

Miami Heat

Close, But No Cigar

At this point, the East is just a mess.

Arguably, a top-level talent like Giannis Antetokounmpo should fling his Milwaukee Bucks towards the top of the standings. But considering Milwaukee’s track record, anything higher than No. 6 is volatile.

Adding renowned head coach Mike Budenholzer will surely give the Bucks a new look. He’s a defensive maestro who learned under Gregg Popovich and the Bucks’ collective wingspan should serve his schemes well.

"“It was miserable coaching against him and I’m so happy to be (saying), `34’s on my team?”‘ Budenholzer said to NBA.com, referring to Antetokounmpo. “That’s like really cool. He’s a nightmare to coach against, to game-plan, to figure out how you can keep him away from the basket.”"

Alongside Antetokounmpo, Budenholzer and the Bucks should ideally be a top-four team, but inconsistencies from Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon leave the Bucks with a positional deficiency at point guard.

Consider 6^th place precautionary. Milwaukee could easily displace the Heat or Pacers in the top five, and even the Raptors if they are lucky. Antetokounmpo is growing into a generational talent, capable of redefining what a peak basketball player looks like.

Another stellar season for him and Khris Middleton could be the difference maker in climbing the East, but really, would anything other than ‘Bucks in 6^th’ look appropriate?

(Thanks, Brandon Jennings.)

And then there were two

At this point, the East is a crapshoot.

In keeping with last year’s standings, the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons are the easy choices for 7^th and 8^th. Both squads return a pair of recent All-Stars (John Wall and Bradley Beal for the Wizards, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin for the Pistons), and have the skeletal frame of a competitive Eastern Conference team.

That frame, however, is marred by a lack of direction that would make even the 2017-18 Phoenix Suns chuckle.

Neither the Pistons nor Wizards have the managerial track record that instills playoff confidence. Dysfunction thrived in both cities last season, with neither team good enough to compete nor bad enough to tank.

Unfortunately, the rest of the East has a similar problem. Down the standings few teams are better off than they were last season. The Knicks are down Kristaps Porzingis for at least half the year, while the Charlotte Hornets have proved successful only at stealing the prime years of Kemba Walker.

The bottom of the Eastern Conference is like filling a piñata with small candies and colorful thumbtacks. Sure, there will be a sprinkling of enjoyment – Kevin Knox in New York, Trae Young in Atlanta – but biting into a shiny metal spine will leave an anemic aftertaste.

Final Standings:

Milwaukee Bucks

A 40-something win team

A 30-something win team

Next: Miami Heat: 3 reasons why Devin Harris is a perfect fit for the culture

Let the games begin.