In this week’s AllUCanHeat Roundtable, the staff discusses all things Justise Winslow.
Alright, what will Justise Winslow have to accomplish this year, for people to stop doubting him?
Imran Ebrahim (@iebrahim81): Well now that Winslow has gotten his contract, I don’t think there’s anything that he can do that would make people stop doubting him. There’s a much bigger onus on him to live up to something now, even after being a top-10 pick. With every mistake that he makes, there will be a crowd of people that’ll say “Yeah, but…” and for every good play he makes, that crowd will come back and say “He gets paid to make more plays than that…” So he’s definitely in a lose-lose situation right now. What I would like to see is for him to solidify his status as a ball-handler/decision-maker, and a solid-to-elite wing defender. He’s always been a jack-of-all trades, and while that’s always good to have (James Johnson comes to mind), I think it’s time he hones into one or two specific abilities and perfects them.
Jack Leniart (@Leniart_ND): I think he will have to continue his strong play on the defensive end of the court and show signs of improvement as a shooter. I disagree slightly at the notion that many fans are doubting Winslow. Maybe some fans just had higher expectations for a player drafted in the first round. While that is understandable, Winslow has certainly proven he could be a solid role player for this team for years to come. He also adds to the defensive-minded DNA of the Miami Heat. Maybe that is his ceiling. If that is the case, I would consider him to be a successful draft pick.
Chase Eyrich (@ceyrich): He is going to have to develop into an elite defender. It’s already a strong part of his game, but now he has to set himself apart. If he can slow down some of the tougher matchups he’ll face this season, he can prove his worth.
Brandon Johnson (@bjohnsonNBA): NBA fans are a fickle bunch. Ideally, if Winslow can keep showing signs of improvement—finishing at the rim, playmaking—he will be an integral part of the Heat. Maybe not the next star, but certainly a useful contributor. More realistically, Winslow’s expectations are huge, especially with Josh Richardson looking like the better of the two 2015 Heat draft picks. Unless Winslow lives up to or surpasses his Kawhi Leonard comparisons, his critics will stay fixated on his “underwhelming” development.
Ok, but do you like Winslow as a backup guard for Goran Dragic?
Ebrahim: I do, but not for a good reason. Right now, to me, if we’re talking about a backup ball-handler that can play long durations of the game or even play alongside Goran Dragic on the floor, it narrows down to Winslow and Tyler Johnson. Obviously, Dwyane Wade would be included on that list, but that’s where the caveat of ‘can play long durations of the game’ comes into play. Looking at Winslow vs. Johnson, it’s the lesser of two evils to have Winslow be the ‘backup.’ I love the way that Johnson plays off-ball and his backdoor cuts are, more often than not, things of beauty. His two-man game with James Johnson is also a delight to watch, but he hasn’t been able to develop that level of trust and chemistry with the rest of his team. For that reason, I have to imagine that Winslow will be the backup guard, with Wade spelling him for certain bursts throughout the game, similar to the role he played in Cleveland before Isaiah Thomas came back from injury.
Leniart: I do. The Heat have a few players that can fill that role, but Winslow is one of their better options. He certainly has room to grow when it comes to shooting and distributing the ball, but his ability to defend is not a common trait amongst NBA point guards. That coupled with his size and ability to switch on most opposing players, makes him an excellent option to back up Dragic.
Eyrich: Their games are different enough that it may be tough for them to mesh sometimes. I don’t mind seeing Winslow start at the three though; he ends up guarding some of the stronger guys and is able to shut them down.
Johnson: If it keeps working, why not? The Heat haven’t had huge success with Johnson as a backup, instead favoring Winslow or James Johnson. Miami has some solid scoring options in Kelly Olynyk, Rodney McGruder, Wayne Ellington, among others. Winslow’s stature is attuned to drive and kicks. Assuming he becomes more of a threat at the rim, he should have some great kickout opportunities with his current teammates.
So should the Miami Heat give up on looking at the fourth year as a shooter?
Ebrahim: Yes. I don’t know how many more ways to say it. With Ellington still on the team, Duncan Robinson possibly joining the rotation, and Dion Waiters supposedly to come back at some point this year, the team has enough shooters and shouldn’t have to rely on Winslow filling that role. Like I said before, I would prefer him concentrating on certain parts of his game and becoming more of a specialist now, instead of being this jack-of-all-trades. If he’s embracing the point guard role, then let him reduce his concentration on that wing shooter role. Would it be great for him to pass it off to Olynyk, take the handoff, use the screen and pop up from deep? Sure. But I’m tired of the days of seeing him camp on the wing, shoot his shot, and watch it clank off the side of the rim…
Leniart: Head coach Erik Spoelstra and the rest of the Heat coaching staff should lower their expectations a bit when it comes to Winslow’s shooting. At the same time, he needs to continue to improve in this area. I think he will. It would not be fair to write him off just four years into his NBA career. If Winslow cannot become a more serious threat to shoot the ball, however, I think his role on this team will be reduced – especially considering the number of options Miami has at the guard position.
Eyrich: No. Winslow can get buckets and there is never a good enough reason to not at least keep it open as an option. If he found some rhythm in his shot, he could have some a scary game.
Johnson: Look, Hassan Whiteside has showed a continued interest in improving his range. As long as he contributes in the areas he can impact the most, adding a jump shot is a welcomed option. The same standard should go for Winslow. His strengths lie elsewhere, but if he can develop a jumper, even if it comes a year from now, go for it.
Then would you give him up in a package for Jimmy Butler?
Ebrahim: Absolutely. I’ve defended Winslow in the past and always said that his second contract would define my liking of him. If he got overpaid, I’d be tired of him and vice versa. Three years for $39 million is not bad and with the final year (presumably the most expensive year) having a team option, it’s great that Heat have a way out if his play remains stagnant or declines. But he fits Tom Thibodeau’s system perfectly, it seems. He’s a grinder, he defends, and he has no perimeter shot. That’s exactly what the Timberwolves do, or want to do. So if it takes him, Waiters, and a protected first to get the deal done, I’m all in. In a way, he’ll save his reputation that way. Right now, he’s the top-10 pick that didn’t work out. After that deal, he’d be the top-10 pick that got the Heat Jimmy Butler.
Leniart: It depends on what the package was, but I would not have much of an issue with including Winslow in a deal that nets Miami Butler. It is always difficult to make the decision to trade away young players with upside, but I do not view Winslow as a player that has the potential to be as productive as Butler has been in his career. This decision would be made easier for the Heat if they could pair Winslow with one of their bad contracts in a potential trade.
Eyrich: There are some packages that I would. Just for the simple fact of having an All-Star on the team. Overall, I’m not too comfortable with the idea of Butler in this locker room, so I wouldn’t want much in this package.
Johnson: Sure. I’m all for keeping the band together, especially with the chemistry everyone has on this team. And clearly Butler would be detrimental to that. But maybe Butler’s soon-to-be-expiring contract will change Miami’s trajectory through the next decade, allowing the team to invest in other, shorter term solutions. So, yes, I’d love for Winslow to be a Heat Lifer, but if the Heat aren’t winning playoff series, then no one on the roster should be untouchable.
Play on, Winslow.