With the Miami Heat tipping off their 2018-19 campaign tonight, here are some things fans should expect this season.
Hello, and welcome to the start of the NBA season for Heat Nation. I hope that yesterday’s games were entertaining enough, while you waited for some Miami Heat Basketball.
The good news is, the wait is finally over. Because tonight, the team is tipping off another year, starting with a road game against the Orlando Magic. The Heat, who went 2-2 against the Magic last season, edged them out 90-89 earlier this month on October 8, during preseason play.
Miami finished preseason 3-3, essentially using the six games to not just test drive the likes of Briante Weber and Jarnell Stokes, as well as ease regularly contracted guys like Derrick Jones Jr. back into the grind after injury, but as a way for head coach Erik Spoelstra to fine tune some of his rotations.
With heavy hitters such as James Johnson and Dion Waiters still rehabbing, uncertain as to when they’ll get the green light to re-join the squad, and Wayne Ellington himself missing all of preseason, Spoelstra once again unfortunately has the burden of starting the year having to rework lineups that he may have thought were set in stone.
Still, there were plenty of positives that came out of preseason.
Hassan Whiteside returning to peak form, for starters.
He was getting it in on both ends of the floor, going hard in the paint offensively and fighting for rebounds on defense. His energy was up, the motivation was there, and he genuinely looked to be enjoying himself; all of which was a welcome change of pace from the Whiteside fans saw during last year’s playoffs.
So what’s next for the Heat?
Here, I’ll lay out for you three things to watch out for from the team in 2018-19… besides the win-loss column, of course.
Why We Matching Up?
It’s been heavily documented that Spoelstra will play whoever he deems necessary to get a win.
Just because you make the big bucks, doesn’t mean you’re going to play big minutes.
We saw Whiteside fall victim to this last March against the Brooklyn Nets, where he just missed hitting the 20-minute mark. Spoelstra thought it was better to go small against the smaller (6-foot-7) Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and ended Whiteside’s night early.
Then, the Heat went on to lose that contest in overtime, 110-109.
This benching is what led to the infamous Whiteside quote of, “Why we matching up?”
Last season, Spoelstra played 14 different lineups, a total of 100 possessions or more.
That ranks second in the Southeast division behind the Washington Wizards (16).
I would like to see that number down a few to about 10/11, which would align the Heat more with the dark horse, Indiana Pacers.
Getting that number down would cut into the number of times the team appears to be scattered. No one talks about this, but I’m sure there’s a psychological element at play with athletes on a team where they know they’re easily replaced. It’s hard to go to the bench in a funk, knowing your chances of returning to the game are very low, especially if you’re losing.
One could always say “play better,” but in the case of the Miami Heat, the blame may have to go to team president Pat Riley.
The way the roster is constructed ultimately disallows things like the seven players currently listed at guard/guard-forward, to have distinct roles that will enable them to develop and grow.
Lastly, the roster is undoubtedly inflated with contracts earned after having only one good season.
You can expect the Heat to find themselves in trade rumors all throughout the season, even aside from being linked to Jimmy Butler.
Print that.
Games You Should Circle
I’ve taken the liberty of looking for the most important games of the season.
These games may surprise you though, as they don’t include the big ticket teams like the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets.
Instead, these are games mostly against teams that were out of the playoffs last season, that will be looking to rectify that this year.
If I were a betting man, I’d say there are a lot of guaranteed losses on the schedule. But these seven games will need to be marked as wins to secure the Heat a playoff spot.
Game 1: October 27 versus Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers have an interesting roster and are the only Western Conference team to make my list.
Outside of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, their roster is filled with hard working veterans who may be considered overpaid. The Heat’s suffocating defense has a chance to hold the Blazers scoring down, while creating transition opportunities for the Heat. As long as they keep the scoring output and the possession count low, the Heat have an excellent chance to win both games against this team.
Game 2: November 12 versus Philadelphia 76ers
This game is a test.
This matchup is a first-round playoff rematch that if the Heat want to prove that they’re a contender in the East, they need to win. I expect Dwyane Wade to have an excellent game but, he can’t be the best scorer on the team if they want to succeed. The Heat will need Whiteside to matchup well against Joel Embiid, Goran Dragic to get into the paint with a live dribble and cause havoc, and Justise Winslow to be a playmaking, Robert Covington.
If the Heat can’t do that, case closed. Move on to the next game.
Danger Zone: March 10-18
During these eight days, the Heat plays their final five games of the regular season. The team must make sure to go into this stretch run well-rested and healthy, if possible.
Here are the team’s last five opponents: at home against the Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, and then finishing off on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This patch in the schedule is a dangerous stretch of games, and if the Heat aren’t careful, they could end the season on a five-game losing streak. If the Heat came into this stretch limping like they did last season, with teams like the Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers hoping to get a playoff spot, a disastrous losing streak could bounce them from the playoffs before the postseason even begins.
The 100 Club
One belief the Heat can’t seem to shake throughout the Association, is their inability to score 100 points in a game.
In the past three seasons, the Heat have increased the number of games in which they have scored 100 points (43, 49, 50).
So you may ask if they got to the target score 50 times last season, what’s the big deal?
Out of the 50, 100 point scoring contests, the Heat only managed to win 32 of those (64 percent).
That’s down drastically from the two seasons prior (75 and 73 percent, respectively).
Last season, nine of those games went to overtime, and the Heat only came out on top in three of them.
According to this data, the issue is not getting to 100 points anymore. The problem with the Miami Heat is closing the deal once they reach that score.
This season, they have to find a way to either get the firepower (Butler) to compete in overtime games, or just outright win those games where they score 100 or more points.
It all comes back to the free throw line.
Out of the nine overtime loses with 100 points scored, the Heat only shot higher than league average (76.7 percent) three times.
When you’re attempting 20+ free throws in these loses, it’s down right unacceptable to miss that much.
The team must improve their free throw shooting if they want to secure more wins in the 2018-2019 season, and avoid embarrassing overtime losses to teams like last year’s Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, and Orlando Magic.
It’s time for another season .