Justise Winslow is making his way back to the Miami Heat lineup, but not without some major impacts to current rotations.
Every season, barring lockouts, the NBA is host to 1,230 games.
Spread out among those contests are 295,200 playable minutes per team. And last year, it took just five of those—or one one-hundred thousandth (.00001 percent) of the season, before Gordon Hayward suffered a season ending injury.
Basketball’s high-octane, mile-a-minute style breeds injury with an unrelenting frequency.
From minor tweaks and aches to blood curdling fractures, players are in a constant battle just to stay healthy enough to compete.
For the Miami Heat, the reality of injuries struck well before preseason. Four key Heat players missed the first three games to injury—Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Wayne Ellington and Dion Waiters.
Miami’s roster has done its best to step up. Despite a 1-2 record through the first three games, Josh Richardson and Goran Dragic are certified offensive powers.
Efficiency has been a snag both have run into—Richardson and Dragic are shooting 36 and 39 percent from the floor respectively, and even worse from 3. But the duo’s combined 36 points per game provide a level of comfort, as the Heat feature two of the NBA’s 50 best scorers through the season’s first week.
The rest of the team fills in as hot-swappable pieces fit for any situation.
Dwyane Wade is busy making the idea of linear time question itself, while Rodney McGruder and his 15 points, seven rebounds and three assists per game, are providing nightly reminders that he indeed did start on that 30-11 Heat team.
Still, playing at half mast is not a sustainable formula.
Any of Miami’s missing players would have been welcome in any of the team’s first games, especially in the hard-fought losses to the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.
With time, each of Miami’s missing four will make a full recovery. Ellington is already practicing with the hope of playing against the New York Knicks, and Johnson has made strides, too.
But while Waiters represents what could be the longest absence among the bunch and is sorely missed for his go-ahead tenacity, Winslow is the missing link that could have helped the Heat start the 2018-19 season off right.
Combo Forward
For all the questions about Winslow’s star potential—and there are plenty—the former Duke Blue Devil is a proven defensive wall, and not too shabby of a playmaker either.
One of Miami’s best traits last year was the team’s ability to turn usually fast paced games, into slogs for teams that prefer the quicker tempo.
The Heat’s defense stifled the Los Angeles Lakers in the second of two matchups last year, holding them to 91 points. On normal night, the Lakers preferred to run at a pace of almost 101 points per 100 possessions, third fastest in the league.
But with its versatile defenders, Miami forced Los Angeles into 20 turnovers, while putting the brakes on the Lakers usually breakneck pace.
Part of that knack for refocusing the game on Miami’s slower, preferred pace comes from being able to switch on defense, without being subjected to mismatches. In the clip that follows, Winslow has switched on to the Lakers’ Ivica Zubac, a 7-footer with a 7-foot-4 wingspan.
Winslow is able to contain him long enough that Kelly Olynyk can provide help, strip the rock and start Miami’s own offense.
Though Olynyk makes the steal, Winslow’s ability to cover the mismatch without it going belly up is exemplary of Miami’s defense. It thrives on eliminating the “mouse in the house” game that skilled centers and forwards can take advantage of, when guarded by smaller players.
Unfortunately, without Winslow, Miami loses some of that leverage. With Winslow sidelined, the Heat have relied on Derrick Jones Jr. starting at power forward, alongside Hassan Whiteside.
Squint hard enough, and it’s possible that you completely lose sight of Jones in mismatches in the post. He’s listed at 200 pounds, but that likely includes his jersey, shorts, shoes and anything he could add, to breach the 200 mark.
Jones is naturally a small forward, and an athletic one at that. He crushed a dunk over three Hornets, all of whom knew better than to contest Jones on takeoff.
But defensively, he lacks the stockier frame that Winslow boasts.
Sure, Jones adds a bit more verticality and length to Miami’s lineups, but he is easily outmuscled when forced to guard the post. Through Miami’s first three games, Jones was tasked with covering Jonathan Isaac, Markieff Morris and Marvin Williams for the majority of the contests, all of whom are taller and bulkier than the Heat’s highest jumper.
Teams have yet to thoroughly abuse the smaller Jones, but against marquee matchups with Philadelphia, Boston or Toronto, expect Jones to be ran into the paint on consecutive possessions.
However, Winslow’s return would mitigate this problem, doing so without sacrificing quickness and offensive versatility.
Thus far, head coach Erik Spoelstra has been reluctant to play Whiteside and Bam Adebayo in the front court for more than short spurts. Neither is consistently shooting or playmaking, outside the post.
Even though Adebayo has proven his defensive quickness, he becomes a drag playing parallel to Whiteside on offense.
Winslow affords Miami better spacing offensively, allowing Whiteside to continue to lock up the paint, while still being a capable post defender in his own right. Help defense is at the core of Miami’s rotations, but until Winslow returns, abusing the post will surely be highlighted on the opponents scouting report.
Down Shifting
While Jones is being pushed out of position in Winslow’s absence, the Miami Heat have experienced some change for the better.
Now that Jones slots in the front court and Richardson plays small forward, McGruder has still been free to start as Miami’s primary shooting guard.
And it’s been working.
A 6-foot-4 guard, McGruder is an exceptionally smart player given his output. Despite his smaller stature, he finds ways to nab boards amongst the treetops.
Now that he is not resigned to playing small forward (as he was in 2016-17 when Waiters started) and is matched up with similarly sized players, he can take over where his opponents (John Wall, Kemba Walker etc.) won’t.
McGruder can stride into the paint to bolster Miami’s rebounding numbers and then initiate Miami’s offense, in a way that’s not possible off a Whiteside, Olynyk or Adebayo board.
Though Winslow might not return to the starting lineup upon return, his positional flexibility, along with McGruder’s near non-existent shot at playing point, could subject McGruder’s current role to change.
Against taller lineups, like the 76ers, Winslow is certainly favored, until a pesky guard like JJ Redick or TJ McConnell arrives.
But if Spoelstra wants to get particularly creative, Miami could indulge Winslow at center, as he played at times during the regular season and playoffs.
Small ball is the way of the future, even if only in limited spurts, so having a McGruder-Winslow based lineup could prove defensively lethal in bursts. Winslow and McGruder avoided each other in every lineup last season, but their complementary defensive profiles could create a fresh look in South Beach.
Until Winslow returns, however, none of these potentially win-streak inspiring options can be unlocked. His return is closer with every passing day, but each Miami loss makes his absence more apparent.
Hopefully Winslow is back sooner than later.