Simulation 3
In the middle of November, Tyler Herro breaks his left leg and will miss 6-8 weeks.
For the first time in this series of simulations, Dion Waiters misses time with a bruised left hip. To adjust, the Heat move Butler to shooting guard and slot Winslow in at small forward.
In early December the Boston Celtics offer Enes Kanter for Adebayo.
Waiters returns, and the Heat went 6-4 in his absence. Two weeks before Christmas, they’re 13-11.
Herro returns from injury in early January and the Heat are still battling to stay over .500 for the first time in this series of simulations with an 18-17 record.
The Houston Rockets offer Austin Rivers and their 2022 first round pick for Adebayo.
The Utah Jazz propose a fascinating trade, perhaps the most intriguing and favorable of the simulation series. They offer Ed Davis and Royce O’Neale for Herro and Haslem. Of course, while our interest is piqued, rules are rules and we politely decline.
Adebayo suffers right knee tendinitis, which will keep him out 6-8 weeks. It’s a critical time, the Heat are 23-23 in late January. Meyers Leonard will replace him in the starting lineup.
Immediately thereafter, the Phoenix Suns offer Frank Kaminsky and Aron Baynes for Waiters and Derrick Jones Jr. Baynes could fill a need for the Heat, but again we must decline.
The Jazz are intent on making a negative value deal. This time they offer Emmanuel Mudiay and Davis for Herro and Haslem. Alas, no deal.
The Phoenix Suns offer a straight one-for-one deal, Ricky Rubio for Dragic.
Teams are intent on fixing the Heat’s new center problem. The Milwaukee Bucks offer Brook Lopez and Kyle Korver for Waiters and Okpala right before the deadline.
The wheels fall completely off the wagon for the Heat. They lose nine straight games before and after the All-Star break and their record drops from a respectable 24-23 to 25-32. They are currently the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference, a game behind the Toronto Raptors.
This game has a knack for perfect timing. The Heat win three straight games and then Olynyk goes down with knee tendinitis. He’ll miss 2-4 weeks, a most inconvenient state of affairs with Adebayo still out. Johnson will take over at power forward.
Adebayo returns in the middle of March. They weathered some of the storm and built their record back to 32-36. They are now in sole possession of the eight seed.
Disaster a week later when Justise Winslow tears his left tricep. He’ll be out for 2-4 months with this injury. Conveniently enough, Olynyk returns a game later.
Things get even worse at the beginning of April when Butler fractures his right hand. He’s out for 4-6 weeks.
In spite of this hardship with both Butler and Winslow out of the lineup, the Heat manage to limp to the finish line and make the playoffs with a 38-44 record.
Record: 38-44
The Miami Heat make the playoffs but not all is well. They have the ninth-worst net rating in the league at -3.9, and the fifth-worst offensive rating at just 106.1.
Playoffs:
Unsurprisingly, the Heat are fodder for the top-seeded Brooklyn Nets and are swept by an average of 27.3 points per game.
Awards:
LeBron James wins MVP, Ja Morant wins ROTY, Giannis Antetokounmpo wins DPOY. Once again the Heat are unrepresented in the awards category.
The Lakers again defeat the Sixers in the Finals, this time in six games, and James wins Finals MVP.
Notable Heat performances:
Goran Dragic: 82 games, 17.8 points, 4.8 assists per game on splits of .439/.325/.799.
Jimmy Butler: 76 games, 17.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 steals per game on shooting splits of .473/.374/.850.
Dion Waiters: 73 games, 13.9 points, 2.5 assists on shooting splits of .422/.291/.509.
Justise Winslow: 70 games, 21 starts, 11.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists on shooting splits of .475/.417/.663.
Tyler Herro: 47 games, 9.3 points per game on shooting splits of .435/.387/.882.