The Miami Heat have been subjected to Bradley Beal rumors for months. Regardless of any of that, for Duncan Robinson would be a lateral move, if not worse.
The Miami Heat have been here before. In fact, it seems that they never even left.
For the better part of a year now, we have been hearing the rumors surrounding Bradley Beal and the Miami Heat. Heck, we have documented them here on countless occasions already.
Not that any of our opinions are gospel, that’s just to show you that this isn’t in any fashion a new thing, but you all know that by now. What is kind of new is how far the fanbase, media, and everyone else who talks about such a move is willing to go to see a trade happen.
You assume that it has to be a trade based on the most recent deal that Beal signed. You know, the one that prevented him from being traded this season based on salary cap ramifications and the fact that his deal is pretty much layered with player option type language that leans towards him continuing to opt-in as the deal progresses.
Bobby Marks of ESPN lays it out with a bit more detail here.
"As part of the extension, Bradley Beal has a 15% trade kicker. The guard also has unique language when it comes to the player option in 2022-23. From when the extension is signed and until June 2022. Beal can decline or exercise the option. Because a player option is excluded when factoring in the value of the trade bonus at the time of the trade, opting-in to the last year would increase the bonus owed. The trade kicker could range between $6-9M. Beal is not eligible to be traded until after the 2019-20 season because the first year of his extension is greater than 5% from his 2020-21 salary. Beal will also receive a 50% advance of his $34.5M and $37.3M (if he opts-in) salary up front when the extension begins. Beal currently has two-years left ($27.1M and $28.75M) on the original $127M max contract that was signed in 2016."
You take this detail from above especially into account when thinking about the fact that it will probably be a trade if he’s moved. A trade keeps his current contract structure the same, meaning he would still receive large portions of his money upfront, regardless of which team it is that is paying him.
The Miami Heat are the subject of certain trade rumors at the moment. Let’s look at one of the current hypothetical moves.
The Trade
With that knowledge in tow, let’s look at how the trade machines have once again started to heat up, no pun intended. The most recent hypothetical scenario comes from Bleacher Report. Here is what their trade looks like.
Here is a little bit of what B/R had to say on the move. While we don’t necessarily agree with it, it is worth noting. Here is a direct quote from the piece.
"Miami’s wait-for-2021 plan is a good one—unless a star player becomes available now. Slotting Beal alongside Jimmy Butler (who turns 31 in September) and Bam Adebayo gives Miami a legitimate Big Three, and this doesn’t deplete all of the supporting cast. Losing Herro and Robinson stings, but chances are neither will become the player Beal is right now. If the Heat handle the rest of their roster right, they can contend for the crown as soon as next season. With Pat Riley’s 75th birthday behind him, it’s tough to see the organization passing up a chance to compete at a level that high."
Well, that is good logic, just not fully thought out in my opinion. There are multiple reasons why that is so, but one that stands above all else. Let’s get into it a little bit.
First off, when you look at all the names that the Miami Heat are moving in that potential deal, it is a bit much and even for Bradley Beal. Not that he isn’t worth all of the talent that this trade would send out, for the Miami Heat and what they do, they are losing more value here than they are getting back.
Secondly, who’s to say that Tyler Herro won’t grow into a Bradley Beal type? A lot of people tend to say what Herro “won’t” be already, but who knows?
I will offer you this. Not only is he bigger than Beal, but a complete skillset to run either guard spot has already been displayed by the first-year rookie. Beal had been in the league for a few years before he was either comfortable enough to operate a ton as the lead guy with the ball in his hands or before he was comfortable enough to show us.
Herro has already shown that he is capable of that. Besides and again, we haven’t seen enough to be able to make a solid judgment on what Herro may be as soon as next season.
To reverse-segue, you also take into account that even though he isn’t Beal yet, perhaps his Beal like skillset in his more passive role right now is a better fit for what the Miami Heat are doing. They have managed to be the team they are this season without a true ball-dominant guy on the floor.
Just because the Miami Heat can make a trade happen, that doesn’t mean they should and that means even for Bradley Beal.
Closing The Case
Lastly and the biggest of the three points here, Duncan Robinson is practically untouchable and even for Beal, as we told you sometime back. He is arguably the best shooter in the game right now, bar none.
Even though he isn’t and won’t ever be the player that Beal is, what he brings is just as valuable to a team as what beal does. Duncan Robinson is instant spacing, as in, there are always at least two sets of eyes on him at all times.
To add Beal’s production, but lose the windows that Robinson provides for other players to be great is a moot and neutral move. Yes, Robinson only accounts for around 13 points a game, but the spacing he provides allows other players to get off in a much greater manner than they would if he wasn’t capable of making you pay from deep at least half the time.
You say “half of the time” as his percentage from deep is 44.8 percent. Yes, you read that right. Nevermind the fact that he takes nearly nine of them a game, yea, nevermind that.
Out of the 48 players that have taken six or more threes per game this season, only one has a higher percentage than Duncan and that is a guy who has always been synonymous with the word shooter in JJ Redick and even he takes a full two fewer threes than Duncan does per game.
Out of those 48 and excluding Redick, only one more surpasses the 42 percent threshold in Davis Bertans, Beal’s current teammate in Washington, and only six cross the 40 percent threshold. Again I say, Duncan Robinson is the best distance shooter in the game, with only Bertans in his hemisphere based on efficiency and attempts.
So, while we are all ready to ship Duncan Robinson off for Bradley Beal, keep all of that and this in mind.
You would ultimately combust your salary cap after taking care of those that are already on the roster than need to be taken care of, while only gaining as much as you lost, hopefully. That is why moving Duncan Robinson or the complete package detailed above for Bradley Beal is a moot point.