The Miami Heat are a team that leaves you in a quandary. In order to best understand that, you must view it through the lens of the entire situation.
Headed into the postseason, we all collectively look at the teams assembled and then begin to separate them into various tiers based on the data gathered throughout the ebb and flow of the regular season. These teams are favorites, while there are also those that got hot at the right time.
This is the group that tends to surprise us. This is also that team that appears to be the obvious bust waiting to collapse in a series.
However, the most difficult teams to asses are the ones we file away under the label of a “switch-flipping” team. This is the team that seems to be in cruise control until the stakes are at the most valuable.
The Miami Heat might be one of those teams. The type of team to lose some weird games, but then go on an 11-game run, and have those big moments in National Television matchups.
In the recent past, successful teams tagged with this title have been the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers teams and the Golden State Warriors. On the other side of the spectrum, there are teams like last year’s Los Angeles Clippers, who was dubbed one of those types of teams, though they had yet to see playoff success.
Basically, it was an undeserved title. Are the Heat deserving though?
At 30-28 and sitting in seventh in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Miami Heat seem poised to fall into that same category just months removed from a Finals run. Or will they?
The Miami Heat are one of the best teams… or are they full of excuses?
After going toe-to-toe with James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals and despite a bevy of injuries to open the season, a .500 record and fighting for a playoff berth is likely not what Erik Spoelstra and the Heat had in mind coming into this year.
The Excuses
But that isn’t because the team is falling apart.
For starters, the season began just 73 days after Game Six of the NBA Finals ended. That’s a pretty quick turnaround, which was evident in a slow 4-7 start.
Injuries have also loomed for most of the season. Jimmy Butler has been in and out of the lineup, missing 16 games this season.
Bam Adebayo‘s knee has pestered him all year long. Andre Iguodala has nursed a neck injury throughout the season.
Roughly two weeks into January, COVID-19 took six players out of the lineup. At the end of March, the Heat went 6-1 while in the process of acquiring Victor Oladipo.
After playing just four games, Oladipo went down with a knee injury and is expected to be out until he feels good enough to play on it.
Butler has also missed the Heat’s last two games with an ankle injury. For the Miami Heat, the magic of the flipped switch might simply be getting healthy before the playoffs.
What do some of the numbers say about the Miami Heat?
It goes without saying that a team’s stats are better in the wins than the losses. How a team wins, however, could say a few things about the roster.
What The Stats Say
When looking at how teams rank, from a PACE perspective in their wins, Miami ranks dead last with a 97.03. Miami is 9th with a 103.7 defensive rating and fourth in opposing field goal percentage in wins, allowing just 42.6% shooting from their opponents.
In victory, Miami is an Anaconda, encircling its prey, squeezing around it, and choking the life out of it. The stats show a team that controls games, slowing them to a crawl, and sinking the defensive teeth into the opponent’s hide.
Now it isn’t a bed of roses. Miami is still a team with an 11-21 record against teams that are .500 or better.
Call it injuries, roster change, or maybe just a slowed style of play, but the offense has taken a step back. This year, the offensive rating has nose-dived from 26th to 15th.
Can a return to health cure such a fall from grace? It’s a big ask.
The Miami Heat can get it done by flipping the switch, but they must not put themselves in too big a hole.
The season from hell for the Miami Heat has required some scraping and clawing. Miami consistently faces injury setbacks just as they seem to be rounding a corner.
The healthy run of winning and losing streaks could speak to maddening inconsistency or a testament to the injury plague.
Conclusively
However, this team is holding on, despite everything. They beat the teams they are supposed to and they have some bright spots
That would be Kendrick Nunn finding himself again. You could also throw in getting Oladipo for pennies on the dollar, but he has to get back and stay healthy.
The margin for error is razor-thin though. The switch must be flipped, but in two ways.
That has as much to do with getting healthy as finding an offensive rhythm. They are a young team but still boast a defensive edge and already have plenty of playoff reps.
If any team can flip a switch, it’s the Heat. But a few games as an entire team before the postseason begins will be crucial, especially since the new format will try to usher teams out in a hurry.
The Heat should still have what it takes to make a run though.