The Miami Heat are like explorers in uncharted territory. In this year’s NBA, it’s a whole new world as the season races towards completion and a play-in tournament between the teams seeded 7th-10th.
As of this moment, the Miami Heat sit squarely in the seventh spot in the East, with an array of possibilities ahead of them. Before sitting down and peeling through which scenarios serve the Heat the best, let’s refresh on how this works.
Following the conclusion of the season, the 7th and 8th seeds play for the 7th spot. The 9th and 10th seeds also play, with the loser getting eliminated.
Then, the loser of the 7th/8th matchup and the winner of the 9th/10th matchup play for the 8th seed. Seems simple enough, right?
That means that right now, the Heat would play the Charlette Hornets. A win would set them up against the Philidelphia 76ers.
A loss would put them in a loser-goes-home match against either the Washington Wizards or Indiana Pacers. The winner of that game would take on the Brooklyn Nets.
Now that you know what could happen, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly of it all.
The Miami Heat would be best off facing Brooklyn early, for as crazy as that may sound.
The most optimistic outlook for Miami Heat reminds of one of the great cinematic experiences. Specifically, a quote from the great Clint Eastwood in the exceptional movie, Dirty Harry.
"“I know what you’re thinking punk, you’re thinking, ‘did he fire six shots, or only five?’ Now to tell you the truth, I forgot myself in all this excitement, but being that this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in all the world and will blow your head clean off, you got to ask yourself a question: Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?”"
The Good
In many ways, staring down the pipe of the Nets offense looks the same as eying the heavy revolver in Eastwood’s hand. The lethal offense bears the three-headed monster of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden.
The Nets are second in points per game, second in offensive rating, first in field goal percentage, first in efficient field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. The lack of health among the three stars has done little to sour the blindingly powerful snd point-getting machine just south of Manhattan though.
But I submit to you this as the best route for the Heat. The best-case scenario is that the Miami Heat fall to the Hornets, only to play the Wizards to stay alive.
The Wizards are exactly two players: Russel Westbrook and Bradley Beal.
With Jimmy Butler on Beal and Westbrook’s playoff shot selection (the last four years, he has shot over 40 percent from the field once in the postseason and is a career 29 percent shooter from deep), plays defense on himself. Miami should easily dispatch the Wizards.
Now, why do all this to play the top seed? Its simple and because the Heat have shown an exceptional talent for slowing games down and forcing teams into their pace.
The Miami Heat want to stay as far away from Philly and Joel Embiid for as long as they can in the postseason.
Despite the 1-2 record against the Nets in the regular season, the Heat kept the offense below its averages in shooting and scoring, while in the playoffs, the good defense tends to win out against good offense.
For a team with a bevy of injuries, getting healthy and playing a series that features the biggest disparity in styles in the first round is the Heat’s best chance for an upset. Am I crazy?
Maybe. Am I feeling lucky?
Definitely. Though, you still have to think about the reality of it all too.
The Bad
The worst situation for the Miami Heat would be a win against the Hornets and a first-round matchup with the 76ers. The Heat do not match up well with Joel Embiid at all.
So far, he has averaged 27 points and 10.5 rebounds against Miami, shooting 61 percent and getting to the line for nearly nine attempts each game. Beyond Embiid, Philly shot nearly 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep in the two games against the Heat this year, averaging 43.5 rebounds and 29.5 assists.
The 76ers can push the Heat around on defense, powering the offense to more success, which plays out in the 131 points averaged against Miami in two games. If that isn’t bad enough, it could get uglier.
The Ugly
Obviously, losing out in the play-in tournament is the worst-case scenario. The Hornets are set to get LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk back this week.
With the full complement of guards back in the rotation and the return of a solid bench piece, the Hornets are more than dangerous. While there is potential for a second loss to the Wizards, a loss to the Pacers would be far more embarrassing.
Indiana seems to have a different eight guys every game and seems lost when trying to find the true crunch time five for the playoffs.
There is also a very real scenario where the Boston Celtics (up by half a game as this is being written) play themselves out of the 6th seed. While that is the best version for the Heat, that is also less fun for wild speculation.
Let’s see how it all shakes out!