The Miami Heat are in the 6th seed following a win over the Charlotte Hornets and a loss from the Boston Celtics against the Portland Trail Blazers. Now, Miami is a game up on the C’s and can lock up a playoff spot outside of the play-in tournament with a strong finish.
Can the Heat do it? A look at Miami’s strength of schedule for what lies ahead shows a challenging road (I don’t care what Jimmy Butler says).
The Heat’s remaining Strength Of Schedule ranking is 14th. However, two of the seven games left are against the Celtics, the team hot on the heels for the sixth seed.
Despite the turbulent road ahead and the few remaining games, a few scenarios are yet to play out. Let’s look at them.
The Heat can still catch the Atlanta Hawks and the 5th seed —
It will be a challenge. Atlanta is a game up, at 36-30, but the road ahead is far clearer.
The Hawks SOS is 23rd in the NBA. The only real challenges on the Atlanta schedule are the Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers.
To pull into the 5th spot and earn a dance with the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, it will likely require a perfect finish or a major slide from the Hawks to close the season.
The Miami Heat still have tough matchups with the Celtics and Bucks to navigate before season’s end.
Sweeping the Celtics will be crucial down the stretch —
Guess who else has a cream-puff schedule to finish the regular season? The Celtics’ SOS is 29th, with games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic, and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Boston has played down to competition plenty of times this season, as have the Miami Heat and to be totally fair here, but banking on them to drop crucial games in the final lap of the season would be playing with fire. Taking both clashes with the C’s is step one.
Closing with big wins against hot teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks is step two. The Miami Heat should be more than fired up to do this though, with the seeding, reputation, and just plain vitriol of it all between the Heat and each of those teams in play .
Matching up with the Bucks —
All of this is a battle to get out of the play-in tournament and take on the Bucks in the first round—a possibly tantalizing prospect for the Miami Heat after handling the Wisconsin squad in the bubble last year.
The defense built a wall out at nearly half-court to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, which bogged down the Bucks offense. But this is not the same team as the one bounced from the bubble on last season.
The Bucks jumped from 18th to 2nd in 3-point percentage and from eighth to sixth in offensive rating. Jrue Holiday has also had a huge impact for the Bucks on both ends, boosting the net rating of Milwaukee from 2.7 to 9.2 when he is on the court.
The Miami Heat can make a move, though, it won’t be easy nor extremely likely.
Any scenario that avoids the potential of a one-and-done game is a good thing. However, following two disappointing playoff finishes from the MVP of the league, the Bucks have flown fairly under the radar this season.
If the Heat does secure the 6th seed, don’t assume a walk in the park through the first round. Whomever they are fortunate, or unfortunate, enough to face here is capable of beating them.
When you look at the top three seeds currently, the Brooklyn Nets, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Milwaukee Bucks, they are all extremely talented and should be motivated. The Nets want to prove that they aren’t a joke and that the talent on that team can be just that, a team that’s capable of winning a title.
The 76ers have under-performed for the last several seasons, relative to the talent they’ve had and should be itching to prove the naysayers wrong. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are in a similar boat.
Being the best regular season team across the last few years, they have yet to have success in the playoffs and want to right that ship. The fact that Miami handled them last season, as mentioned, definitely plays into that as well.
It’ll all be interesting. Either way though, if the Heat are clicking at peak efficiency, they won’t be anyone’s easy out either.