The Miami Heat are headed back to South Beach and the squad is down bad after losing, 98-132, to the Milwaukee Bucks to drop to 0-2 in the series. Even more concerning than the blowout, or the 0-2 hole, or the overtime defeat (that one still burns), is the performance from the Heat’s two best players.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have gone a combined 17-of-61 from the field across the two contests. While the Heat need both to step up, Miami is guaranteed to burn out if Butler continues his ice-cold streak.
Here’s the most interesting question though. What’s wrong with Butler?
This is not just a bad start; it is by far his worst series-start ever thus far. It is early, but so far, this is his only playoff series in which he is shooting under 35 percent from the field.
More concerning are his free throw numbers, which have dipped to 64 percent, an all-time playoff series worst for Butler (all numbers exclude his 2012 playoff appearance when he only played four total minutes). To find the problem and solution, let’s head to the tape.
The Miami Heat have struggled because Jimmy Butler has struggled and the tape says so.
My first assumption was that he had re-aggravated that leg injury. Honestly, that’s how bad it’s been through two games.
Shot watch through two games in Milwaukee –
But upon further investigation, Butler looks healthy. He’s just, severely, out of rhythm.
After watching every shot Jimmy has taken so far, it appears to be a great defense and a player deep in his own head. The Bucks have drawn up a masterful defensive plan.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is too slow, laterally, to guard Butler’s first step. Jrue Holiday stays with him, but is too small to disrupt his shot properly.
So, P.J. Tucker has drawn the defensive assignment and played exceptionally. He is under Butler’s skin, matching Butler’s physicality without fouling the shooting guard when he puts his head down and drives.
The key here is the help defense. Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez constantly hang back in the paint and look to be waiting specifically for Butler’s drives.
This allows Tucker to get into Butler’s body without fouling and the ability to catch up if he slips past. This delayed double-team is giving Butler fits, as he is exceptional at getting to the line, particularly in critical games or crucial fourth-quarter moments.
The Miami Heat need to get Jimmy Butler going if they don’t want to go down 0-3 in the Bucks series.
In Game 2, he shot just four free throws. The defense is clearly starting to get to Butler.
Several times, put-back gifts have led to misses for Butler, despite shooting them right under the basket. And in overtime of Game 1, the defense just started giving him open deep shots.
Butler needs to shake this slump if Miami is to have a chance. What’s the answer?
Screen to the grave. Butler isn’t a good enough shooter to play off-ball and drill threes, while pick-and-rolls are probably the best way to get Adebayo back in the series.
So, screen like the 2016 Golden State Warriors. Double-screen and set staggered pin downs, as to try and blend up the Bucks defense is the best way to reshuffle the deck for Miami and Butler.
Get Tucker off of him, throw the help defense in flux, and pit him against lesser defenders. Most importantly and for a player kicking a slump, set him up to see the ball go through the basket a few teams easily.
The Miami Heat must help him to muster up a monster quarter, get his confidence back, and then, force mistakes. Make a comfortable Bucks defense pivot and adjust.
Get creative, get Butler loose, and do it quick; 0-3 is a mistake away. While it isn’t impossible, going down 0-3 in the series, more than likely, seals their fate.