Recent rumors have surfaced of an increased chance that Miami Heat shooting guard, Tyler Herro, will be dealt — and it could be very soon. In his second season, the former Kentucky alum has shown signs of potential, with 2020-21 season averages of 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 54 games.
In a year of experimentation for both the Heat and Herro, Miami relied on their second-year guard for several stretches this year, while even running him through a failed trial of point guard duties to begin the season.
Although a dominant postseason run and a return to the NBA Finals during the season prior led the Heat to buy into their core, retaining the majority of their roster this past season — Tyler was supposed to be setting the foundation of what was yet to be seen.
However, with ambitions of acquiring a third star component to team with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the option of trading Herro has widened within the past year. There is question of whether his potential can align to Butler’s timeline, as Jimmy will turn 32 years old in September.
The Miami Heat might move Tyler Herro this offseason, but how and for what?
To include that Miami has already become well-invested into a young asset in Adebayo — who will reach a salary increase from five million to just over $28 million for the 2021-22 season after signing a maximum extension — the opportunity for Herro to become a top scorer in Miami isn’t immense. There is also whether Miami holds enough patience to guide him there, while knowing that it may conflict with their intent to acquire a better and more experienced scoring option.
Miami’s first choice with Tyler should be to find his overall market value. The easiest option is to keep him, in hopes of landing a premier talent in free agency.
Remember, Herro was Miami’s third leading scorer and on a team ranking in the lowest tier in scoring. Herro might be best described as the Heat’s strongest asset, as Miami holds a team option worth $4.7 million for him this summer, but it may be the cheapest route to retain and further trust into his ceiling.
Although, if Miami does, in fact, stay the course in developing their second-year guard, Herro will have, perhaps, another year to prove that he can blossom into an elite scorer. With what he’s shown thus far, the trajectory should only still point up.
If the Miami Heat do move Tyler Herro this offseason, what are their options or desired outcomes?
Another option is this. The Heat could look to lean towards package scenarios involving Tyler, as Miami could pick up their other team options with Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala to match salary for a veteran scorer to compliment Jimmy and Bam.
If teams are asking for a little more, lower-end assets such as Precious Achiuwa and KZ Okpala could be used as sweeteners. A final, yet other, realistic choice is for Miami to obtain some sort of draft currency in return for Herro, which would help Miami gain more clarity in a possible star-trade.
Take the Oklahoma City Thunder, for example. The Thunder currently hold 20 future first-rounders, including a 2023 first via Miami.
If Miami can, either convince Oklahoma City to lift certain protections from the 2023 first and unlock later selections (i.e. 2026 and 2027) or work to simply send Herro to Oklahoma City to retrieve that pick, it should be done with the idea that a star (or superstar) has chosen Miami as his preferred destination. Then Miami will be able to rotate several assets, along with the ‘23 first.
All examples are hypothetical, although, completely doable. However, this all comes to how high the Miami Heat believe Herro’s ceiling will be and if he can, perhaps, reach it.
It’s clear that as the Eastern Conference continues to improve vastly, that Miami’s road back to the NBA Finals could likely be more challenging. The fear must be that with Herro as one of their go-to options, it might not get them to the highest stage again.