Duncan Robinson has been an integral part of the Miami Heat offense for the past two seasons. His three-point shooting set records in Miami.
He became the fastest player in NBA history to notch 500 three-pointers. Robinson also tied the franchise record for most threes in a single game with 10.
The 27-year-old has finished top 15 in three-point attempts for the past two seasons. On top of that, last year only marked his third season in the NBA.
Erik Spoelstra consistently draws up plays for Robinson to get open looks. He averaged 13.1 points and ended up sixth on the team in scoring.
He played 31.4 minutes last season, which ranked third on the team. He played more minutes per game than everyone on the team outside of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Robinson is very clearly important to the Heat, and fans everywhere love him. With all that in mind, how much should Miami pay to retain him?
He has been making the league minimum for the past few seasons and is now set to hit the free agent market this summer. It is the first time Robinson will be set up to make some big-time money.
Luckily for the Heat, Robinson will be a restricted free agent. This means that the Heat own his bird rights and have the right to match any offer that he gets on the open market.
With him being such a vital part of Miami’s offense, they have an important decision to make this offseason. How much is too much to pay Duncan Robinson?
How much could Robinson get?
The first question fans should be asking is “how much will Robinson get paid on the open market?” Well unfortunately for the pockets of the Miami Heat, he’ll probably get a pretty penny.
Shooters are at a premium in today’s NBA, and Robinson is one of the best. Teams are willing to pay the big bucks in order to get elite shooters on their roster.
Just looking in the past few seasons there has been an uptick in shooters getting big-time bags. If a player can shoot above 40% from three, they’ll be able to make a lot of money.
The Brooklyn Nets gave Joe Harris a four-year $75 million extension last offseason. Davis Bertans got a similar deal from the Washington Wizards, netting a five-year $80 million extension.
While those signings produced very different results in terms of production, the fact remains that both players earned huge deals because of their shooting.
With the salary cap only getting bigger, Robinson could be set up to earn at least that much this offseason. He’s only 27 years old and is already performing at this level.
Based on his age, production, and offers that similar players got in recent years, Robinson’s potential salary can be calculated. Realistically, for a four-year contract, he could get anywhere from $60-$80 million.
The biggest determining factor will be what teams have the cap space to make an offer.
The competition
The one upside to this decision for the Heat is that they are projected to have a decent amount of cap space this offseason. According to RealGM, Miami is projected to have just under $30 million in cap space – the fifth-most in the NBA.
The downside is that a couple of teams above them on that list could use a guy like Robinson on their team. The two most notable being the New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks.
The Knicks just finished up their most successful season in a long time. Despite this, they got bounced in Round 1 by the Atlanta Hawks.
Robinson wouldn’t fit in perfectly to Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system, but talent is talent. He would be another 40% three-point shooter to help them on offense.
As for Dallas, they are the real team to keep an eye out for. After trading Seth Curry away for Josh Richardson last offseason they really missed his shooting.
They desperately need shooting to pair next to Luka Doncic, and adding Robinson would do exactly that. He would be able to space the floor and play a similar role to the one Curry played.
The one potential rift in that plan is that they have to re-sign Tim Hardaway Jr. Depending on the price tag they have to pay for him, their ability to pursue Robinson could be affected.
Other sleeper teams that could make a play at Robinson include the San Antonio Spurs, Chicago Bulls, and Charlotte Hornets.
How much should the Miami Heat pay?
This is really the only question that matters. How much are the Heat willing to pay, and how much should they be willing to pay?
As previously mentioned, Robinson is an extremely important part of Miami’s offense. Whether or not they decide to pay him will depend on what direction they decide to go this offseason.
The Heat still have the pieces necessary to compete in the Eastern Conference. However, after a tough showing this past season, some reformulation of the roster could be in order.
This could mean looking for a big-time trade or simply signing the necessary supporting pieces. Regardless, stuff like that costs money.
If they view Robinson as a long-term building block, re-signing him should be a no-brainer. However, if there is even a slight doubt in their mind, they should think long and hard about the decision.
The Heat already have a ton of money locked up in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo already. On top of that, Tyler Herro could be in need of a contract extension soon.
However, with that amount of money already being spent, it might be in the team’s best interest to match any offer Robinson gets. However, if that number exceeds $20 million a year for some reason, it might not be worth it.