Miami Heat fans and haters alike have rolled out a topic that seems to get reworked for a different player each year and apparently, this year is Jimmy Butler’s turn. The thing called into question for Butler and plenty of players in the past is scoring.
Is he truly a top-level scoring threat? Is he one of the best 30 scorers in the league?
It is a solid clickbait topic. One side can look up his points per game and get made because they don’t think he is scoring enough.
Then they can look up his contract and get even more upset. The other side can say something vague like, “yeah, but he’s a leader on the team,” or “he’s the heart of the defense.”
These things are challenging to quantify or track with a stat. It allows both to become more entrenched in a side and dog a topic, without having an intelligent basketball conversation.
But that’s not what we are about here at AUCH. So let’s take a serious look at this topic and a more educated approach to deciphering stats.
Let’s start a basketball conversation because those are the best kind. Here… context is very important.
The Miami Heat’s leader’s impact, Jimmy Butler, is bigger than just counting stats.
Here’s the rub. There are many sports fans who will have a point, find a stat to back it up, throw it in your face, and move on.
That doesn’t mean they are right. Sometimes, the answer was flawed, based, simply, on the question.
The Problem Of One Stat
Is Jimmy Butler a top 30 scorer? Well, are you looking for a list of the 30 players who averaged the most points per game last season (Jimmy was 26th)?
Well, that’s easy. Yea, he is.
But, that isn’t a great question either. You see, that list will give you players who scored a lot but sometimes, context is just as important as the stat.
For example, there are nine guys on that list who didn’t even make the playoffs. They played on trash teams that allowed them to take a lot of shots (like Jeremi Grant or Karl-Anthony Towns) or teams that needed them to score a crazy amount of points just to stay in games (Steph Curry).
Of that 30, 21 shot less efficiently than Butler. On that list, 22 players averaged fewer assists.
Why is this important? Because maybe when I ask, “Who is a top 30 scorer?”, I’m not just asking for guys who can jack up enough shots to score 27 a night.
Maybe, I’m asking with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, who do I trust the most? Who creates the most offense?
What player can cause scoring to happen? That’s called context.
The Miami Heat know what they have in Jimmy. You have to ask the right questions to find that out as an outsider though.
Wouldn’t you like a question that goes further than skin-deep points per game answers? Who are the top offensive players in the game?
Who do you trust to take the shots in a tight Game Seven? Those types.
What’s The Right Question? Hows That Asked In Right Context?
For this, we want someone who not only scores but inspires scoring. We want players who score in the spotlight, not on a Tuesday against Charlette.
Who is going to take control of a game, rise to the challenge, and MAKE offense? It has to be more than just throwing up points in the first half and it has to be more than just isolation basketball.
Who will hurt you so bad with offense, recognize the way he stresses the defense, and makes offense happen off that reaction? Players like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Damian Lillard spring to mind.
And if we are stirring down and saying, “Who are the top 30 of this list?” “Who makes the stomach of the defenders turn when he is rolling down the court?”
“Who is a walking bucket?“ Jimmy has to be on the list.
Butler averaged over seven assists per game and was fifth in player impact efficiency last season. He was also in the top 20 of clutch points per game and has been in the top 20 of that stat for four of the last five years.
The Miami Heat immediately got better by adding Jimmy Butler and so has every other team he’s played for.
Moreover, he has had one poor playoff series as a starter. From 2013 to 2020, in what series did he shy from the moment?
And when did his performance decline in that span? From 2015 to 2020, he was the centerpiece of not one, not two, but three franchises in the post-season.
He closed out, not just games, but playoff games for teams with players like Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Joakim Noah and Karl-Anthony Towns. That’s lots of lottery pick talent there.
In series after series, Butler has sent teams home and is why his teams made the playoffs. While he is an elite two-way guard, his offense is what saved all his playoff teams.
Think about the rosters he has led.
The Chicago Bulls: Replaced the scoring of Derrick Rose on a roster of defenders.
The Minnesota Timberwolves: A soft squad that mentality wilted in the spotlight, which he had to save on an injured knee just to make the playoffs.
The Philadelphia 76ers: A team with a center that is gassed by the fourth and a guard who shoots with the wrong hand.
And the Game Five performance in the NBA Finals during the NBA Bubble speaks for itself and his Miami Heat tenure.
Yes, he looked awful against the Milwaukee Bucks this year. But don’t throw out years of data for the hot take.
Right now, Butler is a top 30 scorer. What are we even discussing still?
Why?