The Miami Heat need their floor-spacing. That means that they need this next guy to return to the peak of his powers.
Duncan Robinson was struggling, until just recently. This year he has had severe shooting troubles that many fans and analysts are, absolutely, confused by.
Normally, he is an elite threat from three. In 2019-2020, he shot 45 percent, while it was 41 percent in 2020-2021.
Both years, he had an effective field goal percentage in the top of the league. This year, however, he is only shooting at about 34 percent, just below the league average.
We thought that he was just off to a bad start, perhaps, dealing with something that would work itself out. Now, about a third of the way through the season, it’s clear that something was majorly wrong.
There is some speculation as to why, but none have proven to be conclusive. What has happened to the Miami Heat’s sharpshooter?
Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson And The Mystery Of His Shooting Slump
One hypothesis is that he benefited from the lack of fans, as everyone did in the previous year. Shooting this year is down, league-wide, compared to last.
Could it be that Robinson’s two prominent years of success came when there were no fans in the arena? Well, no.
The data doesn’t support this claim. In the months before the halt of the 2020 NBA season due to Covid-19, Robinson was shooting 45.1 percent from three.
That was in the 99th percentile of all wing players per CleaningTheGlass.com (subscription required). Perhaps, he is taking more shots now, a nod to the Law Of Diminishing Returns.
This is an example where his shooting is a radically sloping bell curve, perhaps indicating that his accuracy is only good in smaller attempts.
Again, the answer here is no. He is averaging 8.6 three-point attempts a game.
That’s just about the exact same as last year and only slightly more than the year prior to that. Maybe it has something to do with where he’s shooting from then or how open he is?
It has to be something, right?
Miami Heat: Duncan Robinson’s Been Better Lately And You Hope He Keeps It Up
Once more, his attempts all show similar trends. Most of his shots are coming from non-corner catch and shoot threes. What’s even more confusing is that he is still taking half or more of his shots after either being open or wide-open, according to NBA tracking data.
Wanting to delve into these numbers to try and find some sort of explanation, some reason, or trend that showed why his performance is stuttering this year, things became even bleaker. The frustrating, but also fascinating, part of this is that I couldn’t find anything.
The stats just aren’t indicative as to why this year is such a challenge for him. This is part of what makes sports so entertaining and why the games are still played.
Every single year and every single day, the games are still played and this is why. There is just so much unpredictability to it.
Duncan Robinson, for two years, was arguably the best shooter in the league. In 2020 he flourished, both before and during the playoffs.
As a pure shooter for the Miami Heat, he torched defenses and was an instrumental part of Miami’s Eastern Conference Championship run in the NBA Bubble of 2020. Duncan Robinson went from being a garbage time player who rarely saw the floor, to a near household name over the course of basically two seasons.
Is it possible that he’ll catapult back into obscurity in the same amount of time? Probably not, but stranger things have happened in this league.
December seems to be going better for him. He’s shot 40 percent or better in every game this month except two.
Hopefully, the trend continues and especially as the Heat enter the grind of the season. That’s also a huge thing while they are still dealing with injuries.
Maybe it was just a strange couple of years, as it was for everyone. Perhaps, that’s all there was to it.
However, for a shooter as good as Duncan has shown, it’s just a matter of completely shaking back. All Miami Heat Faithful can do for now though— is hope he can shake back for good.