Barring an extreme move one way or the other, the Miami Heat are going to likely end up in the NBA Play-In Tournament. With less than a month remaining, it might be too big of an ask to expect the Heat to catch the New York Knicks to be the sixth seed in the East. That being said, Miami shouldn’t fall below the eighth seed, either.
This will give the Heat two cracks at getting into the NBA Playoffs and with the eighth through tenth seeds not being that intimidating, chances are that Erik Spoelstra will return to the playoffs for the fourth year in a row.
Once in the playoffs, the rotation is going to shrink to the team’s eight or nine best players, which is naturally going to leave certain players out of the fold. Assuming everyone is healthy, there are three prime candidates to get the boot.
3 Miami Heat players that should be axed from Erik Spoelstra’s playoff rotation:
1. Duncan Robinson
Duncan Robinson has missed a big portion of this season so it would not be all the different to not see him suit up in the playoffs. Robinson already saw his playoff role diminish significantly last year as he averaged only 12.2 minutes per game. The year before he was averaging 25.
With Kevin Love now in town there really is no reason to give Robinson any minutes outside of garbage time. The once-promising sharpshooter simply does not make up for his lack of defensive output on the offensive end.
One-way players are exposed in the NBA Playoffs and if Robinson is on the floor he is going to be hunted on every single possession. That is not worth having on the floor just so he can provide an above-average catch-and-shoot weapon.
Robinson’s fall from grace has been sad to watch over the last few years and it could culminate with him being axed from the playoff rotation altogether.
2. Gabe Vincent
This might seem like an interesting inclusion on this list considering Gabe Vincent has served as the only true backup point guard that the team has. Now that Kyle Lowry has returned to action, it is easier to see how Vincent could get the boot from the rotation.
That being said, Vincent still played a whopping 37 minutes in Saturday’s loss to the Orlando Magic. While that might seem like a sign that he will be in the playoff rotation, he really should not be if the Heat are serious about winning basketball games.
Vincent simply has not been that great this season. He is inefficient on the offensive end of the court and has not been able to make up for it on the defensive end. Of the nine players with at least 600 minutes logged this season, Vincent has the worst Box Plus/Minus at -4.0.
To put that into perspective, Vincent has the 13th-worst BPM in the entire league among players with at least 600 minutes played. There are 321 players with at least 600 minutes, putting Vincent in the fourth percentile.
The need for a backup point guard is not as prevalent in the playoffs when the rotation shrinks. Lowry is naturally going to get more minutes and with Jimmy Butler’s play-making ability, the Heat don’t need to play Vincent simply because he is a point guard.
3. Haywood Highsmith
Haywood Highsmith is already starting to see his role in the rotation diminish as the season comes to its final chapter. The 26-year-old forward has not played the last five games and he has not played more than 10 minutes since February 15.
This is simply the writing on the wall for what Spoelstra is going to do with Highsmith in the NBA Playoffs: hand him a heaping serving of DNPs. There is simply too much talent ahead of Highsmith and as long as the team stays healthy then Highsmith should stay on the bench.
Highsmith has played a tangible role on the Heat this season. He ranks ninth in total minutes played for the team and was averaging just under 24 minutes per game in the months of November and December.
While Highsmith is another example of the Heat getting something out of nothing, he simply has not been good enough to log anything other than extreme garbage-time minutes. He is good enough to hold his own on the defensive end but his offensive efficiency is simply too poor.
Miami’s net rating is four points worse when Highsmith is on the court versus when he is off the court this season. That is the icing on the cake to officially kick him out of the rotation for the time being.