Here’s a stat: The Miami Heat have won the Southeast Division in nine of the last 13 seasons. Here’s another one: Since the Heat became a part of the division in 2004, they’ve won it 12 of 19 seasons. Put more bluntly, the Heat are kings of the Southeast.
How have they done it? Who cares! That’s not important. We’re done looking backward. It’s time to look ahead. The real question is if the Heat can do it again. Here’s one advantage they have over their division rivals, the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards.
Atlanta Hawks: Defense
There hasn’t been much to like about Atlanta’s defense for quite a while. Not since 2017 have the Hawks haven’t finished a season better than 18th in defensive rating, including last season when they ranked 22nd.
This is pretty much the opposite of the Heat experience. Despite some of the plodding and frustrating offenses that have become too common in Miami, the Heat have built their longstanding success on a foundation of defense. Last season, the Heat ranked 25th in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating.
But matchups against Atlanta’s shaky defense present a rare opportunity for the Heat to look like an offensive juggernaut. So much so that the Heat in four games against the Hawks last season scored 118.6 points every 100 possessions – a mark that would have surpassed the Sacramento Kings for the best offense in the league.
It’s not hard to see why this is the case. The Hawks are built around star point guard Trae Young, who is an incredibly productive offensive player, but might also be the worst defender in the NBA. Miami loves a downhill attack on offense, and Young provides little friction at the point of attack.
Beyond Young, wing Deandre Hunter is Atlanta’s only plus perimeter defender, while Clint Capela – an elite rim-protector when healthy – hasn’t been healthy.
The Hawks didn’t do much this offseason to improve their defense (although trading away John Collins might be addition by subtraction), so new coach Quinn Snyder will have his work cut out for him to turn that unit around. For now, it remains the Heat’s biggest advantage against their biggest competition in the division.
Charlotte Hornets: Defensive Rebounding
We need to fold in the 2021-22 season to get a more representative sample for the Hornets, who were without LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges for most or all of last season.
Across both seasons, Charlotte ranked among the worst rebounding teams in the league. In 2021-22, the Hornets ranked 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. They ranked 19th last season.
By comparison, the Heat ranked fourth in defensive rebounding percentage. Bam Adebayo is a big part of that. According to the NBA’s tracking stats, no player boxed out on defense more than Adebayo last season.
The Hornets don’t have an Adebayo. Perhaps 7-foot-1 center Mark Williams blossoms in his second season, and Bridges is known to swoop in for a board here and there. But Charlotte is a bad defensive rebounding team, which means extra possessions for the Heat’s often mediocre offense.
Orlando Magic: 3-point shooting
Only the Rockets and Bulls gave up more 3-point attempts than the Magic last season. Part of this was by design. The Magic prefer to use their size to pack the paint and dare opponents to shoot from the outside but, for a good 3-point shooting team like the Heat, that should provide an opportunity for some easy points.
Orlando’s bigger problem is that it ranked 25th with just 10.8 3-point makes per game. That means, more often than not, the Magic were playing from behind, trying to match 3s with 2s.
The Heat weren’t much better in terms of 3-point makes (12 per game) but it was also a down year for Miami’s shooters. Scan both rosters and the Heat are clearly more proven (Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, Josh Richardson, Kevin Love) than the Magic (erm, Gary Harris?).
Obviously, a Damian Lillard trade could tilt this particular scale even more in favor of the Heat.
The Magic have talent and could even push for a spot in the play-in tournament this season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner might be the best young wing duo in the league. They drafted Jett Howard because they know they need to space the floor around their two burgeoning stars. He could help, but he won’t solve their shooting problem on his own.
Washington Wizards: Experience
After making the roster-altering decision to trade Bradley Beal to the Suns (and the ensuing trade of Chris Paul to the Warriors for Jordan Poole), the Wizards have embarked on a youth movement.
Tyus Jones, who has been in the league for eight years, is Washington’s most experienced starter. The Wizards projected starting lineup (Jones, Poole, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford) has been in the league for a combined 24 seasons — a mark surpassed by Jimmy Butler (12) and Kevin Love (15) alone.
Look, the Wizards aren’t trying to win. The decision to trade Beal was a decision to tank. Games against the Heat will be a good way to measure their players’ progress against the conference champions, but the Heat can’t overlook them.
Poole and Kuzma are capable of erupting for 30-plus on any night, and the Heat have been known to drop games to lesser opponents.
The Wizards are young and amorphous while the Heat’s identity is chiseled in stone. These games should be easy wins on the schedule, but only if Miami does its job.