The Miami Heat need to acquire a power forward this offseason. Luckily, there are multiple solid options, ranging from role players to certified stars.
Luke Babbitt is currently playing the best basketball of his career. Since Jan. 12, he’s third in the NBA in three-point shooting, converting an absurd 50.5 percent of his looks. He only trails Tony Snell (no, seriously) and Chris Paul. The Miami Heat have been 1.7 points better with Babbitt on the floor in that span, and plus-0.5 points per 100 possessions for the year.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has given him the ultimate green light to shoot, and with good reason. Babbitt’s ability to knock down shots is one of the driving forces behind Miami’s turnaround. Also encouraging, he has worked hard defensively. There’s only so much he can do, as he has limits in that capacity, but at the very least, he’s making opposing forwards earn their baskets.
And yet, the Heat still head into the summer of 2017 with a hole to fill at power forward. Chris Bosh will be off the books by then, while Babbitt and fellow 4-man James Johnson will be free agents, as well. It’s far from a certainty that either will be back next season.
So team president Pat Riley and general manager Andy Elisburg will have money to spend (potentially a lot of it), on finding replacements in the open market. Fortunately for Heat fans, there are a lot of interesting possibilities set to become available this summer.
Let’s take a look at a few.
5. Ersan Ilyasova
Atlanta Hawks power forward Ersan Ilyasova is on his third team of just this season. Prior to joining Atlanta, he was briefly a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder, followed by a longer stint with the Philadelphia 76ers.
During his time with Philly, Ilysaova had a proper chance to showcase what he can do as a starting power forward in this league. Over the 53-game period, he averaged 14.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game, while shooting 35.9 percent from three.
Furthermore, his advanced metrics also check out nicely. His 0.8 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP, for short) is a higher rate than Klay Thompson’s, Joe Johnson’s and stretch-4 extraordinaire Ryan Anderson’s.
Miami would like to continue to spread the floor in order to give Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters room to drive, and the current Hawks big man would do just that.
Ilyasova isn’t a star by any means. But he’s an upgrade (maybe a major one) over Babbitt, as well as a near-perfect fit next to Hassan Whiteside.
4. Taj Gibson
Heat fans remember Taj Gibson well. During the Big Three era, he was constantly a thorn in Miami’s side while playing with the Chicago Bulls. More specifically, he was the guy who baptized Dwyane Wade that one time.
Never forget.
In all seriousness (ill feelings aside), Gibson is still performing at a high level. He was recently traded to the Thunder to help bolster their starting lineup, and though kinks are still getting worked out, he has been better for them of late.
For the season, Gibson is averaging 11.1 and 6.6 rebounds on 51.8 percent shooting. Defensively, he’s a stalwart, ranking 76th overall in defensive win shares, while posting a healthy 2.6 percent block rate.
The Heat would lose some of their coveted spacing by adding Gibson, but pairing him with Whiteside along with a healthy Justise Winslow would form arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA.
Interestingly enough, it appears that one of Miami’s guards has started the recruiting process early.
pic.twitter.com/53ODJSIJr8 https://t.co/zsA29Gp7N2
— Goran Dragić (@Goran_Dragic) March 3, 2017
https://twitter.com/Goran_Dragic/status/837525741004713985
Just kidding, of course. Riley would never let his star players recruit a competitor before they hit free agency! LALALA-I can’t hear you-LALALA.
3. Serge Ibaka
There were rumblings about the Heat going after Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline, but ultimately, it was just a whole lot of smoke. It’s not like Miami had much to offer either, considering their lack of assets at the moment.
Rather than lose a valued young player like Tyler Johnson or Josh Richardson in attempt to swing for an Ibaka deal, Riley did the right thing by standing pat. (Do I get anything for being the one millionth person to use that terrible pun?)
Ibaka is set to hit free agency this summer, so Miami will still get its chance to recruit the veteran rim protector, who is presently averaging 15.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, while shooting 39 percent from three.
Those numbers may not seem like much at first glance, but according to Basketball Reference, Ibaka is one of just four players since 1980-81 to average over 1.5 blocks, 6.0 rebounds, one three and shoot at least 38 percent from beyond the arc. For the record, one of the other three is someone named Dirk Nowitzki.
It’s hard to find a better fit for what the Heat need than Ibaka. He can aid Whiteside in blocking shots while maintaining the floor spacing that helps the offense hum.
Full disclosure, the Toronto Raptors received his Bird Rights when they traded for him, so they’ll have a leg up on the competition for Ibaka’s signature. It’s difficult to see him signing anywhere but Toronto, but who knows. Just get him in a room with Riley and anything is possible.
2. Paul Millsap
Technically, Paul Millsap is signed through 2017-18, but he has a player option going into next season that most everyone expects him to exercise. That means that instead of assuring himself of the $21.5 million he’s due next year, he’s going to hit the open market for even more money.
Would Riley feel comfortable tying himself down financially to one 32-year-old player, with the team losing so many pieces heading into free agency?
Well, for starters, it helps that Millsap is showing zero signs of decline. If anything, he’s improving.
He’s currently setting his career high in scoring average, at 18.2 points per game, to go with 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks. His VORP — 2.7 — is a higher clip than Blake Griffin’s or Kyrie Irving’s.
Millsap is simply a monster who would even help take some of the play-making load off of Waiters and Dragic. (I know, this is the second time I’ve mentioned Waiters being a member of the Heat next season despite his impending free agency. I’ll just say this: I fully expect him back.)
It’ll be tough to pull the four-time All Star out of Atlanta, but that team isn’t going to do major winning anytime soon. Perhaps Millsap sees his window for a title closing, and decides to join a team with championship* potential.
*Laugh all you want, but Miami is a top five team over the last two months. They have shown what they can do in this new drive-and-kick system, and by adding an elite player like Millsap (or the next guy on our list) to the mix, legitimate contention won’t be far out of reach.
1. Blake Griffin
The Los Angeles Clippers 4-man is a beast. You don’t need me to rattle off his stats to know that. Griffin can score, pass, rebound and defend at high levels.
He still hasn’t become much of a three-point shooter (30.8 percent from deep this year on 1.4 attempts per game), but that hasn’t stopped the Clippers from currently boasting a 40-27 record.
Do I think Griffin turns down the massive money he’s set to receive from Los Angeles this offseason, to join a team he has zero familiarity with? No, I absolutely do not.
The best we can hope for is he takes meetings with potential suitors — like Kevin Durant did — and Riley can coax him into making the move to South Florida. It’s a stretch, but crazier things have happened.
Apart from the five guys I listed, there are other lesser options out there, as well. There’s Patrick Patterson of the Raptors, Amir Johnson of the Boston Celtics and Zach Randolph of the Memphis Grizzlies due to his free agency.
Next: Here are the bets lineups of the season for the Heat
No matter what does end up happening, you can be certain of one thing: Miami will have a new starting power forward next year. It’s just a matter of time. Thankfully, Babbitt has made the wait more tolerable with his flame-throwing heaves from deep.