With the Sweet 16 set to tip off, we take a look at six players the Miami Heat could target in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft.
The Summer of 2017 is going to be vitally important for the future of the Miami Heat.
Aside from Chris Bosh’s impending release, which will free up a ton of cap room, it’s also a rare year in which the Heat actually own a first round pick! Last year’s went to the Philadelphia 76ers and the one that follows this season’s goes to the Phoenix Suns.
The last time Pat Riley had a first round pick to use was 2015, and I’m sure you all remember who he chose. Though the jury is still out on Justise Winslow, early returns are… shaky. Yeah, we’ll go with shaky.
Furthermore, after the consummation of this season, almost half the current active roster is going to hit free agency. Though I expect Dion Waiters and James Johnson to return (just two of the six players bound for the open market), it’s far from a certainty.
That’s all to say, the Heat absolutely need to nail their sole selection of the 2017 NBA Draft.
So it may be a good time for us to transition our gaze from Miami’s tight playoff race to the NCAA Tournament. (Or, I guess you could theoretically have one eye on the playoffs and the other on the tourney. Whatever floats your boat.)
Although a few of the most talent-laden teams have already been eliminated (Duke immediately comes to mind), there are still plenty of potential Heat targets left we can watch.
For our purposes, we’re only going to focus on guys projected to go 12th overall or later by Draft Express (DX), since that’s around when Miami will probably be picking. Here are six of the most realistic options whose teams are still alive in the Sweet 16.
Bam Adebayo, C, Kentucky
The most talented team remaining in contention are the Kentucky Wildcats. They currently boast three freshmen in DX’s first round mock, one of them being center Bam Adebayo.
He wouldn’t fill an immediate need for Miami, but he’s one of the best young big men in college basketball. Over his last ten games, Adebayo is averaging 15.0 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, on 62.2 percent shooting, 72.7 from the foul line.
He’s not remotely a threat from outside, but has a 6-foot-10, 260-pound frame that makes him very difficult to defend down low. Adebayo’s size and plus-athleticism help him finish an astounding 77.9 percent of his opportunities near the rim (stat via Hoop Math).
The Heat taking Adebayo wouldn’t make much sense if they land a top 14 pick, but if they end up in the late teens, he could be drafted as the best player available.
Kentucky’s center is a ferocious rebounder, with the early makings of a decent post game.
His above-average hands for a big and overall potential could make him a savvy pick by Riley in the mid-first round. And who knows, perhaps he comes on sooner than expected and eventually makes Hassan Whiteside an expendable asset.
Devin Robinson, SF, Florida
Devin Robinson is another interesting player.
The junior small forward has great size for a wing at 6-foot-8, with almost a seven-foot wingspan. On the year, he holds averages of 11.4 points and 6.3 rebounds on a tidy 52.7 percent shooting from the floor. Robinson has extended his range to the three-point line this season, converting on a career-high 39.4 percent of his looks from deep.
DX currently has him slated as an early second round pick, but with continued success in the NCAA Tournament, he could easily move up to the first round. Thus far in postseason play, Robinson has upped his numbers to 16.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.7 three-pointers per game.
The Florida Gator has elite three-and-D potential, provided his improved shooting from beyond the arc is sustainable. Head coach Mike White trusts Robinson to guard positions 1-4, and there’s nothing to say he can’t do the same at the next level.
He would also give Miami more size on the perimeter, which they desperately lack, and his height and leaping ability could allow him to eventually play some small-ball power forward, as well.
If he does ultimately get selected in the second round, he may end up being the steal of the draft.
Johnathan Motley, PF, Baylor
Another high-upside option for Miami, but this time at a position of (major) need, is Baylor’s Johnathan Motley.
The junior power forward is setting career-highs all across the board, scoring 17.3 points nightly, to go with 9.9 boards, 2.4 dimes and 1.1 blocks. He’s not yet a threat from three-point range, which does hurt considering the Heat want a stretch-4 to pair with Whiteside, but he has improved his skill level this season.
Further, he’s a terror in the open floor. According to DX, as a sophomore last year, he was in the 98th-percentile in transition scoring. Just imagine the possibilities of him running the floor with Goran Dragic or J. Johnson pushing the ball.
Despite not being an insane athlete, Motley does have a ridiculous 7-foot-4 wingspan, which will help him defensively in the NBA. He’s also got soft touch in the mid- to low-post, to go with an effective turnaround jumper.
If you want a good look at the Baylor Bear firing on all cylinders, just watch his 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Texas from Jan. 17.
Motley’s potential, good hands and burgeoning post game make him a very intriguing option for Miami to replace Luke Babbitt with.
TJ Leaf, PF, UCLA
Another power forward the Heat are (probably) heavily scouting is UCLA’s TJ Leaf. The freshman is having a great first year, averaging 16.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists with a 61.6 field-goal percentage.
What’s most enticing about him is his potential as a stretch-4. Leaf is shooting 45.6 percent from three this season, on 1.7 attempts per game. It’s definitely still a work in progress, but early indications of his abilities from deep are there, at least.
On Dec. 3, Leaf faced off against Adebayo and Kentucky’s eighth-ranked defense (according to KenPom). And he was brilliant.
Leaf scored 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting, grabbed 13 rebounds, dished out five dimes, blocked a shot and even nailed a three. It was the performance that put him on the map as a one-and-done prospect.
Leaf is a great distributor, both from the paint and the outside. He’s got a solid post game and a surprisingly tight handle for a big that helps him put the ball on the floor and keep opposing players off balance. He may not be the best defender, but that matters just a little less when you consider the number of minutes he would spend playing along Whiteside.
Finally, Leaf isn’t the most athletic guy, but he’ll stun you with plays like this…
TJ Leaf's INSANE one-handed alley-oop scores the @OpusBank #12Best Moment! pic.twitter.com/BZSVZqKohJ
— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) February 2, 2017
…when you least expect it.
Stretch-4 prototype Lauri Markannen won’t be available when Miami is on the clock, but Leaf could be a logical contingency plan.
Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
ACC Player of the Year Justin Jackson is a player whose stock is soaring.
As recently as Jan. 5, DX had him mocked as the 39th-overall selection. Now, he is projected as the 12th pick in the draft.
How did he move up over 20 slots in less than three months?
The primary reason is his improved shooting. As a junior, Jackson is converting on 38.7 percent of his three-point looks. That’s up from his first two years, when he was at a paltry 29.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Concerns over how “real” that improvement is are quelled by him attempting an astronomical 7.0 threes on average. That’s not per-40 minutes, either, but per game.
His newfound shooting is helping him set a career high in scoring at 18.1 points per game. He’s also averaging 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 0.9 steals.
The Heat still lack scoring on the wing, meaning Jackson would make a lot of sense. Most remember Jan. 17’s Kentucky – North Carolina game as the day Malik Monk dropped 47 points, but Jackson was also spectacular. The junior scored a career-high 34 points on just 17 shots, to go with four threes, five rebounds, three assists and a steal.
Scoring aside, Jackson’s 6-foot-8 frame and 34.5-inch vertical give him the potential to be a solid NBA defender.
Hopefully he just slips a bit later than expected.
Caleb Swanigan, PF, Purdue
The highest boom-or-bust prospect on our list is Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan.
The sophomore has seen a major rise in production this season, averaging 18.5 points, 12.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per contest. He’s shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, 43.2 from three and 78.5 percent from the foul line.
The low-post monster is a vicious scorer in the paint, a vacuum cleaner on the glass and an excellent passer.
In Purdue’s Round of 32 matchup against Iowa State, he was brilliant. Swanigan scored 20 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and had seven assists in what was unarguably his team’s biggest game of the season.
I mean, just look at this freaking pass from the high post.
I get why Swanigan is supposed to go late in the first round, if not the second. He’s a bit too bulky, probably won’t be much of a three-point shooter at the professional level and may be forced to be a pure center in the NBA.
Next: The Miami Heat's NBA Draft Board
But when the Spurs take him and he becomes the next Tim Duncan, I won’t be remotely surprised, either. Maybe Miami should get ahead of the curve and take him before that can happen.