The Miami Heat’s recent hot stretch has brought with it a downside – the surging value of their upcoming free-agents.
Pat Riley had a simple plan when constructing this season’s Miami Heat roster.
Having missed out on the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, Riley decided to construct a team on short-term deals, and then reassess this upcoming summer.
But with the Heat taking the league by storm since January 17, another dilemma has confronted Riley and his front office. With the recent surge in the league’s salary cap, the monetary value of their upcoming free-agents has soared when you combine their individual numbers and the success of the team.
With Chris Bosh’s contract set to come off the books this summer, the players presently signed to long-term deals are Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson. Naturally this is going to require some serious discussions and decision to determine which players they most want to retain.
Here we will compare players of a similar experience and role, and how these players were rewarded during last summer’s free-agency period. As you will notice, these free-agents comprise a number of different traits – age, experience and role on the team vary from each player.
James Johnson
Age: 30
2016-17: 12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.5 assists per game (APG), 1.1 blocks per game (BPG), 48.5 FG%, 26.6 MPG
2016-17 salary: $4,000,000
Johnson has been one of the revelations of the season. Not just in Miami, but league wide. And like Ellington, it hasn’t just been because of his noticeable body-shape transformation. Regarded up until this season as a small forward who was a suspect perimeter/three-point shooter, Johnson has evolved into a modern-day stretch 4 with the ability to hit from behind the three-point line.
With a career-high of 1.7 three-point attempts per game prior to arriving in Miami, this season Johnson has ramped that up to 3.2 for a respectable 34.6 3P%. Johnson was a career 26.6 percent shooter from downtown prior to arriving in Miami. But it’s also been Johnson’s ability to bring the ball up the floor and act as the secondary ball-handler that has made such a valuable commodity.
Now on his fifth team, Johnson like Ellington is in both the form and shape of his career. Here are highlights from one of Johnson’s best games this season:
From last season’s free-agency signings, some comparable players around the league are the following:
Evan Turner, Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 28
Contract: Four-years, $70 million
Turner performed a similar type role for the Boston Celtics last season as to what Johnson is currently performing with the Heat. Coming off the bench, Turner provided a boost with a combination of his scoring and play-making ability. Nowhere near the athlete Johnson is, Turner was rewarded extremely handsomely this past summer.
Mirza Teletovic, Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 31
Contract: Three-years, $30 million
Like Johnson this season, Teletovic had a breakout year statistically in his sole season with the Phoenix Suns. At a similar age and a similar role coming off the bench like Johnson, Teletovic’s floor-spacing ability was snapped up promptly by the Bucks.
Jared Dudley, Phoenix Suns
Age: 31
Contract: Three-years, $30 million
Dudley was added to the Suns’ roster just as much for his veteran leadership and locker-room presence as his on-court performance. Like Johnson, he possesses versatility but nowhere near the athleticism or ability to defend almost every position on the court.
Luol Deng, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 31
Contract: Four-years, $72 million
Deng’s numbers in Miami last season were strikingly to Johnson’s this season – 12.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 34.4 3P%. Deng’s singing with the Lakers was seen as a great fit for a young, up-and-coming team. But the season’s of the both the Lakers and Deng have been a huge disappointment.
Wille Reed, C
Age: 26
2016-17: 5.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 56.0 FG%, 14.5 MPG
2016-17 contract: $1,015,696
Prior to his arrival in Miami this season, Reed had played a grand total of 39 NBA games, which was last season with the Brooklyn Nets. Hence, his contributions this season have been a pleasant surprise. With terrific agility for a player at 6-foot-11, Reed has demonstrated the ability to defend on the low block while also handling the stretch-type centers who like to head out onto the perimeter.
In the absence of starting center Hassan Whiteside, White has made five starts, averaging 14.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 1.6 BPG in 28.5 MPG. Below are highlights of his career high from earlier this season:
Some comparable back-up centers who signed deals this past off-season are the following:
Festus Ezeli, Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 27
Contract: Two-years, $16 million
Although oft-injured, Ezeli was a key contributor to the Golden State Warriors making consecutive trips to the NBA finals. And unfortunately for the Blazers, he has carried those injury woes with him as he has been ruled out for the current season without having stepped on the court. Like Reed, he is awn athletic rim-protector who can finish strongly inside on the offensive end
Boban Marjanovic, Detroit Pistons
Age: 27
Contract: Three-years, $21 million
Despite just one season of NBA experience consisting of 9.4 MPG, Marjanovic was targeted by Pistons’ head coach Stan Van Gundy to back up their incumbent center Andre Drummond. But Marjanovic has been seldom used, averaging just 6.5 MPG in 28 appearances.
Bismack Biyombo, Orlando Magic
Age: 24
Contract: Four-years, $70 million
This is the most extreme case for a player such as Reed, where a backup center receives a $70 million contract. A career backup, Biyombo’s value rose as a result of his increased playing time and production during the 2016 playoffs.
Ian Mahimni, Washington Wizards
Age: 30
Contract: Four-years, $64 million
Mahimni is yet another backup who cashed in mightily this past offseason. With career numbers of 5.1 PPG and 4.3 RPG, Mahimni has played in just 20 games this season in his customary backup role.
Dion Waiters, SG
Age: 25
2016-17: 15.8 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 RPG, 39.5 3P%, 30.1 MPG
2016-17 salary: $2,898,000
An untimely ankle injury has put the brakes on the best stretch of Waiters’ career. Since January 17 when the Heat’s commenced their season turnaround, Waiters has averaged 18.4 PPG and 4.8 assists, which included a red-hot 44.5 percent clip from three-point range.
Waiters has been a great compliment to point guard Goran Dragic and the Heat’s ever-increasing attacking approach on the offensive end. So much so, Waiters ranks sixth in the league in player drives with 11.0 per game. The combination of Dragic and Waiters, along with Tyler and james Johnson coming off the bench, has been able to make the full use of the Heat’s rapidly improving three-point shooting.
Waiters simply has the ‘x-factor’ that many teams crave, particularly late in a game where his ability and willingness to get off his own shot makes his extremely valuable.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra noted earlier this season:
"“We started the process early. We started in August. I spent a lot of time with Dion on and off the court, just getting to know each other. He’s really embraced our culture. We’ve been open minded and embraced him and his personality. It’s been reciprocal.”"
Below are highlights of one of Waiters’ best games as a member of the Heat:
Here are some other shooting guards of a similar age and role who signed deals this past off-season:
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
Age: 24
Contract: Five-years, $85 million
Fournier has improved in each of his four seasons with the Magic, with his numbers last season strikingly similar to Waiters this season – 15.4 PPG, 2.7 APG and 40.0 3P% in 32.5 MPG. At 6-foot-7, Fournier’s size allows him, like Waiters, to get off his own shot in a variety of situations. And like Waiters, Fournier is proficient at attacking the defence, averaging 6.9 drives per game on the season.
Allen Crabbe, Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 24
Contract: Four-years, $75 million
Crabbe is an overall solid player, primarily a perimeter shooter which nowhere near the overall impact of Waiters. To command such a hefty contract following a season averaging 10.3 PPG says a lot about the explosion of the salary cap.
Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 24
Contract: Four-years, $50 million
Clarkson has proven to be a choice after being selected 46th overall in the 2014 draft. And considering the size of some other contracts, this was among the smarter moves of the past summer. For the season, Clarkson is averaging 14.5 PPG on 44.5 percent shooting from the field.
Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks
Age: 27
Contract: Four-years, $70 million
This was yet another in a long list of head-scratching signings. Bazemore is averaging 11.0 PPG on 40.7 percent shooting from the field, not too dissimilar to what earned him this sizeable deal.
Managing The Cap
It’s going to be virtually impossible for the Heat to bring back all four players mentioned. With the potential of huge offers on their way, determining who they value the most, and what they’re prepared to pay, are likely to decide who remains in Miami.
Age, upside, experience, locker-room presence and the actual cost of retaining the player are just some of the factors that will be taken into account when the Heat formulate their choices. Furthermore, there are the other players available on the open market to consider when deciding on the best plan of attack for 2017-18 and beyond.
In terms of the players covered, my predictions on whom they compare with closest from the above lists, and what they could expect to sign for, are as follows:
- James Johnson – In between Jared Dudley and Evan Turner: Four-years, $50 million
- Willie Reed – Boban Marjanovic: Three-years, $21 million
- Dion Waiters – Allen Crabbe: Four-years, $75 million
Of course there are still 11 regular season games, and a possible playoff run remaining. And the value of these players could rise or fall depending on their performances.
Next: 6 potential draft targets to watch in the Sweet 16
Either way, the Heat front office will be fully aware that they have big decisions got make this coming offseason.