Dion Waiters is no guarantee to return to the Miami Heat, despite displaying some of his immense talents this season. Here we take a look at some of his potential replacements.
Dion Waiters’ true value to the Miami Heat this season was not just restricted to his on court performance. It was also evident during his untimely late season absence.
Waiters played in just 46 games in debut season in Miami, averaging 15.8 points, 4.3 assists and 3.3 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game. While overall he shot 42.5 percent from the field, Waiters’ 39.5 percent accuracy from behind the three-point line was comfortably a career-high.
But much like the team as a whole, Waiters’ form took off in the second half of the season.
At 11-30, the Heat appeared to be going nowhere. But in completely flipping this around for a 30-11 record to finish the season, Waiters’ form was one of the key ingredients to the Heat’s success.
Over the final 41 games of the season, Waiters played in 25 games, averaging 18.4 points, 4.8 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. Most notably, he converted at a 46.7 percent clip from the field, 44.5 percent from three and was a +138 overall while on the court. During these games, the Heat notched a 21-4 record.
But it was also the games Waiters missed through injury where his value to the team was just as apparent. During the 16 games Waiters missed in the second half of the season, the Heat posted a 9-7 record. Considering the Heat missed out on the playoffs to the eighth placed Chicago Bulls due to their 2-1 season tiebreaker, one can easily argue that Waiters’ absence cost the Heat a playoff berth.
Still just 25 and about to enter the prime years of his career, Waiters’ value around the league has never been higher. And with some huge offers bound to come his way this summer, the Heat will need some alternatives options in mind if their negotiations with Waiters come awry.
Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta Hawks
It was a breaking-out party this season for Hardaway Jr., enjoying by far the best of his four seasons in the league. Following a very inauspicious first season in Atlanta, Hardaway earned the trust of the Hawks’ head coach, Mike Budenholzer. He averaged 14.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 27.3 minutes per game. Starting 30 of his 79 games, Hardaway shot 45.5 percent from the field and 35.7 recent from three-point range.
One contributing factor in Hardaway’s resurgence this season was the mid-season trade of shooting guard Kyle Korver. Over his first 47 games of the season, Hardaway Jr. averaged 11.9 points in 23.8 minutes per game, which included 34.1 percent shooting from behind three. But following this, his final 32 games were exceptional.
Finishing the season, Hardaway Jr. averaged 18.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. His playing time received a huge boost, averaging 32.3 minutes over this span. Furthermore, his shooting numbers also took off, hitting at a 47.9 percent clip from the field and 37.8 percent from downtown.
Hardaway Jr.’s best game for the season was during a home loss to the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. Playing 35 minutes, Hardaway Jr. scored a career-high 36 points on 13-of-20 shooting from the field, including 5-of-9 from behind three. And despite the 135-130 loss, Hardaway Jr. was a +15 on the night.
Hardaway here demonstrated the ability to finish at rim off the dribble, from the midrange and of course, behind the three-point line. With the Heat, Hardaway Jr. would provide a great off the ball option alongside point guard Goran Dragic, while providing great spacing for center Hassan Whiteside. The Heat would have to offer him a qualifying offer, as Hardaway Jr. is a restricted free agent–meaning the Hawks could match any offer the Heat make–and it could cost somewhere in the range of $15 million per season to sign him.
Notable stat: Hardaway Jr. had 34 games this season where he had 13 or more field goal attempts. During these games he averaged 21.0 points per game, converting at a 48.2 percent clip from the field and 37.5 percent from downtown. Furthermore, he was +155 while on the floor.
Nick Young, Los Angeles Lakers
Amidst another disastrous Lakers season, Nick Young was a surprising bright spot. After averaging just 19.1 minutes and 7.3 points per game on 33.9 percent shooting from the field in 2015-16, Young had somewhat of a resurgence this season. Starting in all 60 games played, Young posted 13.2 points in 25.9 minutes per game. He shot 43.0 percent from the field and an excellent 40.4 percent from behind three on 7.0 attempts per game. This ranked Young 12th in the league for three-point attempts per game, while having the fourth best percentage of players averaging at least 7.0 attempts per game.
Considering the Lakers’ lack of success, Young’s three-point shooting numbers were tremendous. Per NBA.com, for attempts taken at least four feet from the closest opponent, Young converted at a 42.6 percent clip. This season, the Heat ranked seventh in three-point attempts considered open (4-6 feet from the closest opponent. However, they converted at a 34.1 percent clip, which ranked them 22nd for such shots.
Young’s accuracy, combined with a low usage rate of 19.5, make him a great option off the ball option. And at 6-foot-7, Young provides the flexibility to switch between the 2 and 3 spots.
His best performance this season came against the defending champion Cavaliers. In 38 minutes, Young scored a season-high 32 points, which included an outstanding 8-of-14 from three-point range.
But it wasn’t just Young’s shooting ability that led to his resurgence this season. From the outset of the preseason, Young’s newly found desire at the defensive end was very evident. During the preseason, Lakers’ head coach Luke Walton forecast a promising outlook for Young this season:
"“He’s earned playing time. He’s been phenomenal throughout training camp and preseason games. I think we all know he’ll score the ball, but the thing that I’ve said has been most impressive is the way he’s been defending people.”"
Despite turning 32 next month, Young has a relatively low amount of miles on his legs. He has missed 194 total games over his 10 seasons in the league, albeit without suffering any long-term, major injuries. On a short-term deal, Young could provide terrific value for a playoff-bound team such as the Heat.
Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings
On pure talent, Evans would rank close to top of the list of players to replace Waiters. Unfortunately for Evans, his body has betrayed him on multiple occasions throughout his career. This has been particularly the case the last two seasons, where due to three surgeries on his right knee, Evans has been restricted to a total of 65 games.
As a result of these surgeries, Evans was placed on a minutes restriction when he was available to return to the court this season. On top of all this, Evans was involved in the midseason deal that sent DeMarcus Cousins to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Over 40 games this season, Evans averaged 10.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists in just 19.7 minutes per game. These are significantly down from his career numbers of 16.1 points, 5.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game. But upon return to his original home, the Sacramento Kings, Evans displayed some promising signs.
Evans played 14 games for the Kings following the trade, averaging 11.6 points and 3.6 rebounds in 22.5 minutes per game. Although these are fairly modest numbers, it was Evans’ three-point shooting that was a notable improvement. A career 29.5 percent shooter from three-point range, Evans connected at a 43.8 percent clip on 3.4 attempts per game.
His best performance as a returning member of the Kings was during a road loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Playing 29 minutes ( a season high), Evans scored 26 points, which included 9-of-13 from the field and 3-of-4 from behind three.
Although it’s just one game, Evans demonstrated here that he still has plenty left in the tank. He was able to get past his man and finish at the rim, as well as demonstrating a noticeably improved outside touch. As Evans said in the midst of this season upon his return to Sacramento:
"“I’m getting older, and I realize that. I am actually feeling pretty good right now and I want to see how this goes. While I was in New Orleans, I worked on my jump shot a lot with Freddy (Vinson). It’s much better than it was. Making jump shots helps a lot, too.”"
Evans is similar to Waiters in that they are both capable of impacting the game playing on or off the ball. With a career average of 5.1 assists per game, Evans would provide an excellent compliment to Dragic in order to take some of the load offensively.
Naturally, signing any player with an injury history such as Evans’ is going to have a degree off risk attached. Having said that, the strength and conditioning staff of the Heat this past season demonstrated again why they are at the cutting edge of the league. First of all, their head strength and conditioning coach, Bill Foran, won the NSCA award for Professional Strength and Conditioning Coach of the year, the fourth time he has won the award.
Further, the physical transformation of reclamation projects such as James Johnson, Wayne Ellington and Waiters demonstrates the significant value the Heat place on physical conditioning.
Placing an immensely talented, albeit injury-riddled, player such as Evans in the hands of the Heat’s staff could be well worth the gamble.
C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers
Although he will enter free-agency somewhat under the radar, C.J. Miles makes sense on a number of levels. A 12-year veteran, Miles has carved out a niche as one of the more prominent three-point shooters in the league. In 76 games this season, Miles averaged 10.7 points and 3.0 rebounds in 23.4 minutes per game. Notably, he shot at a 41.3 percent clip from behind three and 90.3 percent from the free-throw line.
Despite playing in his 12th season, Miles is still just 30, courtesy of entering the league straight out of high school. Miles attempted 5.4 three-point shots per game this season, which was 34th in the league. But from all players attempting at least 5.4 per game, Miles ranked fifth in accuracy.
In breaking down Miles’ three-point shooting, when attempting shots considered wide open (6+feet from an opponent) per NBA.com, this season he converted at a 46.9 percent clip. Amongst all players who attempted at least 2.0 wide open three-pointers per game, Miles ranked second in percentage, only behind Tony Snell at 47.6 percent
His best performance this season came in a double overtime loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Coming off the bench, Miles scored 27 points in 34 minutes on 8-of-13 from the field, including 5-of-9 from behind three.
As can be seen, Miles demonstrates not openly the ability to catch and shoot in no time, but he can also enter the lane and finish in the dribble. In combination with incumbents Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington, Miles would significantly enhance the Heat’s perimeter firepower.
Decision Time
If the decision this summer was simply in the hands of Waiters, the result would be a fait accompli. Recently he penned an article for The Players Tribune, titled “The NBA is lucky I’m home doing damn articles.” Among other things, Waiters detailed how much it meant for him to play in Miami this season. In his words:
"“It was damn near the best thing that’s happened in my NBA career….I love Miami. I had a hell of a season here….Hopefully, we found a home down here.”"
For his part, team president Pat Riley, whom Waiters described in his article upon first meeting Riley as “you know, real O.G., looking like a million bucks…He’s looking like the boss. He’s looking like he’s seen it all, because he has.”, also has great affection for Waiters.
At his recent season-ending exit interview, Riley stated:
"“The great guards in this league, he has the ability to shoot over 40 percent from three,… to be maybe a 47 or 48 field goal percentage guy. If he gets over 50, look out. What bothers me is that he’s not making 85 percent of his free throws. This is all focus. He has that in him and I think we saw enough of it, plus we really like Dion. He’s a good guy. I don’t know if there are two tougher minded guards in the league than Goran Dragic and Dion. Dion has this affable defiance. I like [that he] wants to take big shots. But the two of them did complement each other because both are attackers.z"
These words certainly sound like Riley is looking forward to Waiters returning. he also added:
"“Dion can create off the dribble and get to areas of the court when you can get up shots in late clock situations. He’s going to become a better finisher because… he gets into the paint 12 to 14 times per game. He realizes now what it takes to be a great player. The one word that coach was talking about all the time that we just want to improve is his efficiency.”"
Like any free-agent negotiation, money is going to be at the top of the list of deciding factors. Even if Waiters says now he wants to stay in Miami, someone could offer a deal too rich for him to pass up. Like Luol Deng last summer.
In such an instance, the players detailed here should be seriously considered.
Note: there was some notable exclusions from the list of potential replacements. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is one player, like Waiters, who’s expected to receive multiple offers. And according to the Detroit Free Press, the Detroit Pistons are likely to match any offer, even if it means offering a maximum contract. Although Caldwell-Pope, 24, has much potential, this would be a severe over-pay for the Heat.
Another prominent free-agent name will be J.J. Redick of the Los Angeles Clippers. Redick still produced another strong season, averaging 15.0 points per game which included 42.9 percent shooting from three-point range. However, Redick will be 33 next month, and recently had a poor playoff showing, averaging 9.1 points on just 38.0 percent shooting from the field.
And although he’s at a similar age to the aforementioned Young and Miles, it’s expected Redick will be commanding approximately $16 million per season. Considering his age, this would be an awful lot to pay at the conclusion of the deal. Young and Miles, however, are likely to command significantly less than that of Redick, and would be terrific short-term additions.
Next: Free agent replacements for James Johnson
But from the list of potential replacements mentioned, Hardaway Jr. would best fit the bill as Waiters’ successor. Of course, that comes with it’s own complexities of signing him as a restricted free agent.
At 25 and with four seasons behind him, Hardaway Jr. will be entering the prime of his career in the coming seasons. And with his father, Tim Hardaway, already a Heat legend, having a second Hardaway in the fold would be a great storyline if the Heat and Waiters are unable to come to an agreement.