The Miami Heat’s search for a point-forward, James Johnson, and Draymond Green

James Johnson, his resurgence, and the quiet Draymond Green comparison. The Miami Heat missed on a few of their free agent signings, but not with him.

The summer of 2012 was an interesting one for the Miami Heat. The team was coming off their second championship run, their first of the Big Three era. The top of Miami’s roster was obviously stacked with superstar names, but the bottom still needed some retooling. So, the thinking was, Pat Riley would use the draft to fill his needs.

As the 2012 NBA Draft drew nearer, one name began to pop up, in connection with Miami, on a lot of experts’ mock predictions. That of an undersized power forward out of Michigan State called Draymond Green. In ESPN resident draft guru Chad Ford’s own words:

"The Heat need players with experience who excel in bringing out the best in their teammates. Green can be a point-forward type who does a little bit of everything. Think of him as a better-passing Udonis Haslem. He can shoot, handle the ball, pass like a guard and isn’t afraid to bang in the paint. There’s little he can’t do."

Just imagine Green teaming up with Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. Brings a tear to my eye.

Unfortunately, Riley and team owner Micky Arison saw the draft as an opportunity to cut costs. They traded out of the first round, took Justin Hamilton halfway through the second (they knew he wouldn’t make the team), and then set their sights on free agency. (Ultimately, they ended up signing Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, so really, they made the right decision.)

But watching Green blossom into who he is today — an All-Star — somewhat hurts. At least for Heat fans. He was there for the taking, but the timing was just off. Perhaps if he had declared for the draft a year earlier, Riley takes him instead of Norris Cole.

We’ll never know.

A failed attempt at atonement

This wasn’t the first time the team whiffed on a draft pick, either. (Thankfully, their track record in developing castaways and D-Leaguers is pristine. If not, Miami would really be in trouble.)

What’s interesting about this particular mistake, though, is that management clearly wanted to make amends for it in the offseasons that followed. In 2014, while James was deciding whether to re-sign in Miami, or head home and join the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Heat made a couple of additions they thought would help convince him to stay put.

One of them was Josh McRoberts. The 6-foot-10 power forward was coming off an incredible year for the Charlotte Bobcats. A year that saw him average 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists, while shooting 36 percent from three. He was the prototypical point-forward, who, in theory, would have made life easier for the Big Three. (As Green would have.)

James ended up picking Cleveland, anyways.

As we all know, the McRoberts signing hasn’t panned out for the Heat. He’s constantly battling injury, and even when healthy, not all that effective. Thus, Riley went into this past offseason looking for more options at point/power forward. He decided to play the odds and signed three: Derrick Williams, Luke Babbitt, and James Johnson.

It’s that last guy we’re here to talk about.

The Heat find their point-forward

If Williams and Babbitt were swings-and-misses (the former has already been cut from the team), then Johnson was a grand slam. He’s setting career-highs in multiple categories, averaging 12.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game, while shooting 36 percent from three.

His defensive rating is third-best on the Heat among players who have participated in over 20 games. And Miami’s net-rating is 3.1 points better when he’s on the floor.

Furthermore, Johnson’s play is only improving. Over his last nine games, his numbers have risen to 17.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists a night, with 1.1 steals and 2.2 blocks. He has become what is known as a stat-sheet stuffer.

If you put the numbers aside and just watch Johnson play, you’ll notice that he has a versatility that not many in the league can match. Heat point guard Goran Dragic has talked about it before:

Johnson has done everything that head coach Erik Spoelstra has asked of him this season. He has spent time as a pure power forward, a stretch-4, a point-forward, and on occasion, even at point-center.

He is equally as flexible on the defensive end, as well. Dragic mentioned James as an apt comparison for Johnson’s ability to switch between positions, but likening anyone to the best player in basketball is a stretch.

Maybe a more accurate portrayal of Johnson’s game is in a player who Miami could have drafted four years ago.

James Johnson: a poor man’s Draymond Green

When you look at Johnson and Green’s raw stats side by side, you’ll notice some slight similarities (via Basketball Reference):

• Green: 33.3 minutes, 44 percent shooting, 32 percent from three, 1.1 three-pointers, 10.3 points, 8.3 boards, 7.4 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.5 blocks
• Johnson: 26.5 minutes, 49 percent shooting, 36 percent from three, 1.2 three-pointers, 12.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.1 blocks

Johnson is a more efficient shooter and scores more points per game, while Green sweeps him in every other statistical category. (For the record, their respective teams — obviously — affect their numbers. Put Green on the Heat and there’s no way he averages 7.4 assists, but he would score far more often. Flip that for Johnson on the Warriors, too.)

However, if we look at their per-36 numbers (player’s averages if they were on the floor 36 minutes a night), the comparison gets a little more interesting:

• Green: 1.2 three-pointers, 11.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.7 blocks
• Johnson: 1.6 three-pointers, 16.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.2 blocks

Advantage still goes to Green because he’s such a freaking monster on defense, while also being the best distributing forward not named LeBron James. But Johnson’s numbers stack up nicely.

If we look at their advanced metrics for the defensive side of the ball, the comparison does begin to lose merit. Johnson’s are above-average, but Green is arguably the best defender in the NBA.

According to defensive win shares (estimate for the number of wins contributed by a player on defense), Johnson’s rate is 2.0 — good for 40th in the NBA — while Green’s is 3.7 — third-highest overall, highest if you take out centers.

In essence, no one in the NBA is Green. He’s one of the most unique players in league history. Regardless, Johnson is no slouch.

A visual juxtaposition

Two areas in which a comparison of the players is most intriguing is in their distribution, and their rim protection. Partially because they excel in both facets, but in unalike ways.

For starters, Johnson and Green are among the best big men in the NBA when it comes to facilitating. According to Basketball Reference, they are two of just seven players in the entire league who are listed as forwards, and averaging more than three assists (who have suited up in at least 20 games).

It’s the way they get their assists that is different, though. Green typically receives the ball at the top of the key, or in the high post, and tries to find one of his shooters. That’s either once they’ve gotten open after a myriad of screens, or when they feel their defender overplaying them, and cut backdoor.

Johnson, on the other hand, likes to pick up a full head of steam and attack the basket. If he notices he has a lane, he’ll finish the play off with a layup. If he doesn’t, he’ll find a teammate for an open look.

Additionally, both guys are excellent rim protectors, despite not being the bounciest athletes. Green’s block percentage (percentage of opponent two-point field goals a player blocks while he’s on the floor) is 3.7. Johnson’s is 3.3. Either player can block their man straight up, or provide weak side assistance for their teammates.

Johnson and Green are both so fascinating because they’re rugged defenders, with skill levels you wouldn’t expect upon first glance. It’s not often you see massive human beings dribbling the ball down the court, hitting three-pointers, or dishing dimes like 240-pound Steve Nash clones.

Next: A statistical postmortem of the Heat’s win streak

Green is the more distinct talent to be sure, but it’s a shame Johnson didn’t approach the first six years of his career with as much want. Envision him today had he been drafted by the Heat coming out of college.

Maybe the Green comparison wouldn’t be all that farfetched if he had.