#1 – Miami Heat – 54-28, 1st in the Southeast
Projected starters: Norris Cole (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), Luol Deng (SF), Josh McRoberts (PF), Chris Bosh (C)
Am I biased? Sure. Am I delusional? Maybe. Am I drunk? *looks at bottle half-full of Fat Tire* No! But the one thing I can say for certain is that I’ve seen Erik Spoelstra coach. He’s the best coach in the division and that gives the Heat an edge. He’s picked apart Doc Rivers, Tom Thibodeau, Frank Vogel, Scott Brooks, and Gregg Popovich at various times over the years. Yes, he’s had great players in those battles, but he’s still found a way to get the most of those players and lineups. But like any team in the NBA, the Heat are going to need things to go right.
How it can go right: Yes, Wade is the big red flag when this topic comes up, as he’s missed a considerable amount of time over the past three years. What’s lost is that Wade sitting tended to be more precautionary, which the Heat had the luxury of You Know Who and playing in the East that they could get away with it. Now the situation has changed, so will Spoelstra’s handling of Wade’s playing time. It’s not to say that Wade is going to play 77 games of All-Star basketball. But 70 games is a reasonable expectation for him. It’s also not like he’s washed up; the man scored 19 points per game on 54% shooting, last season! Did I mention that he’s a guard?
But Wade won’t have to do all the heavy lifting, as Bosh seems to be ear-marked for a heavier workload as The Man. Once upon a time, Bosh was a 20 and 10 guy for Toronto, then got slotted in as the third banana over the last four years. Now he’s going to get all the shots he wants. Bosh finished the preseason sixth in scoring, in only 28 minutes of action. His quickness and ability to stretch the floor makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing bigs.
How it can go wrong: Wade drives to the basket, takes a hard tumble, and bursts into flames. This isn’t out of the question. Wade’s presence on the floor is going to be important for the Heat. The depth behind him is questionable, as it’s point guard-turned-shooting guard Mario Chalmers, Shannon Brown, and rookies James Ennis and Andre Dawkins. If Wade misses extended time, that’s trouble.
As for those rookies, Ennis and Shabazz Napier should be the ones trying to make an impact this season. Both played well for stretches of the preseason, but if they should stumble, that puts a major strain on Spoelstra’s rotations.
Deng and McRoberts adjusting to the Heat system is another big factor. Deng had a couple of good games in the preseason, but seemed out of place the majority of the time. McRoberts is already behind as he’s battling injuries and might be out an extended period time. Getting him alongside Bosh helps with Miami spacing on the floor, which should give Wade and Deng room to work getting into the paint.
First month (or so) of games: Washington, @Philadelphia, @Toronto, Houston, @Charlotte, Minnesota, @Dallas, Indiana, @Atlanta, Milwaukee, @Brooklyn, Clippers, @Orlando, Charlotte, Golden State, @New York
The Heat start out with eleven games against teams that made the playoffs – one of which is Indiana – and three of those games are against the West. With Washington short five players Opening Night – including Beal and Nene – the Heat can try and get the season started off right. But all these games are going to be tough, as Miami still is trying to build continuity.
Win/loss prediction: 50-32, 1st in the Southeast; 3rd in the East. Maybe I’m an optimist, but the Heat can win this division. Again, much like other teams around the NBA, they’ll need to avoid the injury bug, as well as guys play to their potential. Neither of those things are impossible.
Nevertheless, it’s going to be a long, wild, and most importantly, a fun season. The past few months have been a roller-coaster, with rumors, opinions, blog posts, talking heads, and obnoxious amounts of this guy. It’s finally time for the action on the court to take center stage.
Welcome back, NBA. I’ve missed you!