The Miami Heat may have got the steal of the draft when Justise Winslow fell to them at No. 10. It was an easy decision to make, taking the Duke star who shot up draft boards all season and was believed to be a top seven pick.
Heat exec on Justise Winslow falling to them at No. 10: "Wow." They thought he'd go No. 4 to Knicks.
— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) June 26, 2015
Winslow, who measured nearly 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and 222 pounds at the NBA Draft Combine, is in that Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard mold. A 3-and-D swingman who is versatile on defense and has big scoring potential on offense.
Winslow, 19, has the ability to guard positions 1-3 and will immediately help Miami’s perimeter defense, which ranked 20th in opponent 3-point percentage in the NBA last season.
DraftExpress.com says Winslow won’t be overpowered by forwards in the paint and has the quickness to stay with guards in the NBA, making him a versatile cog in the defense.
"His footwork and lateral movement is outstanding for a player his age, as he’s always in a stance, displays tremendous focus and awareness, and is incredibly tough, physical and competitive. While he’s tremendous one on one, he’s even better as a team defender, doing an outstanding job of making the right rotations and helping out his teammates, digging down on the post, closing out on shooters, and finding ways to make plays off the ball, averaging 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per-40 minutes."
Generating turnovers is another big part of his game, and something the Heat have hung their hat on under Erik Spoelstra. However, the Heat ranked in the middle of the pack of the NBA, generating 16 points off turnovers per game last season (the fewest since 2010-11).
Winslow not only has the ability to get turnovers, but to score off those turnovers. He’s excellent in transition, demonstrating a shade of the speed and power that Heat fans have missed since LeBron James left last summer.
On offense, Winslow has some work to do. He’s not great at generating his own shot outside slashing to the rim, which will become more difficult in the NBA. He’s mostly a catch-and-shoot guy, with an encouraging 41 percent clip from 3-point range. That would have been the best percentage on the Heat, who ranked 22nd in 3-point percentage as a team (33.5 percent) last season.
Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry tweeted a shot chart that better displays Winslow’s shooting trends.
With the 10th pick in the 2015 #NBADraft, the @MiamiHEAT select Justise Winslow. pic.twitter.com/4ZkauCbM9a
— Grantland (@Grantland33) June 26, 2015
As you can see, Winslow basically ignores the mid-range game. In that way, he is very different from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Winslow’s shots go up from beyond the arc or in the paint–the most efficient shots in the game. That will be a welcome addition from a guy who projects to be the Heat’s fifth or sixth scorer.
As of now, Winslow projects to come off the bench behind either Dwyane Wade and/or Luol Deng (assuming he is ahead of guys like James Ennis and Tyler Johnson on the depth chart). He should improve Miami’s overall spacing when in the game, and will be a nice complement as an outlet for Goran Dragic to kick out to. With Dragic, the Heat will play faster and Winslow will fit right in. He can run the floor in transition and finish at the rim or trail for the 3-point play.
This is a great pick for the Heat, and exactly the player they need. Like Butler, George and Leonard before him, Winslow will be able to defend right away and hit open shots (which he should get plenty of in Miami’s offense). If all goes well, he’ll develop into a more threatening offensive player who the Heat can rely on in the future.