Miami Heat: Southeast Division Preview

Oct 21, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside before a game against the Washington Wizards at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

#2 – Miami Heat – 37-45, 3rd in the Southeast

Projected starters: Goran Dragic (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), Luol Deng (SF), Chris Bosh (PF), Hassan Whiteside (C)

There was so much pain and suffering being inflicted on the Heat that a plague of locusts would have been seen as a ray of hope. Last year, I picked the Heat to win 50 games and the division. The lesson, as always: I’m an idiot. Well I never learn my lessons, so I’m doubling-down this season!

In all fairness, it was hard to predict the amount of injuries, roster turnover, and Chris Bosh’s blood clots rampaging through the roster. But the trade for Dragic, followed by the emergence of Whiteside, have reloaded the Heat starting five. Combine that with an improved bench and an exciting rookie, and things are looking up in Miami.

How it can go right: At various points last season, the Heat relied on heavy minutes from the likes of Shabazz Napier, Danny Granger, Shawne Williams, Henry Walker, and Michael Beasley. Needless to say, depth was a major concern for Miami.

This summer the Heat loaded up on nice additions like Amar’e Stoudemire and Gerald Green, and key draft picks like Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, have helped restock the bench. Add in the return of Josh McRoberts from injury, and mainstays like Mario Chalmers, Chris Andersen, and Udonis Haslem, and up-and-comers Tyler Johnson and James Ennis, and the Heat look like they can run fifteen deep.

The major wild card is Whiteside, as he begins his first full season as an NBA starter and will have all eyes on him. If he lives up to the hype that surrounds him, then the sky’s the limit for the Heat. Having a defensive anchor that will also attract attention in the paint on the offensive end has been something that Miami has lacked since Shaquille O’Neal.

While the Heat were eleventh in field goal percentage last season, they were seventh worst from three-point range, so moving up into at least the top-15 should do them wonders. Green’s addition help towards this end. They have two of the best finishing guards in the NBA at their disposal, and a center that’s almost automatic when he gets the ball, so if they can shoot the three with any consistency, then they become difficult to stop.

How it can go wrong: I SAID WE’RE NEVER TALKING ABOUT LAST SEASON!

But health is still a big concern, as the roster is littered with players that are going to see their fair share of games missed for one reason or another. Good news is the NBA has cut back on a lot of the back-to-back sets and four games in five nights weeks, so the extra breaks will help an older, banged up squad like the Heat.

Knee injuries have limited Stoudemire to averaging 50 games over the last four seasons, playing a little over 22 minutes a night in that span. McRoberts was relegated to 17 games last season due to a meniscus tear in his knee, and – like Stoudemire – was being brought along slowly during the preseason, while Andersen missed 22 games. Those are major question marks behind Bosh and Whiteside, who are coming back from ailments of their own. And this doesn’t mention Wade and Deng, who combined to miss 30 games. A repeat of this will spell doom.

On defense, the Heat were twelfth worst in opponent field goal percentage, and eleventh worse in three-point percentage, while their points per 100 defensive possessions (103.8) was also twelfth worst. Defense has always been a Miami staple, so the Heat need to improve on those numbers if they want to be a major threat in the East. A lot of that had to do with moving people in an out of the rotation on the fly. But the Heat haven’t built continuity with the the current roster, so this will be a work in progress.

First month (or so) of games: Charlotte, @Cleveland, Houston, Atlanta, @Minnesota, @Indiana, Toronto, Lakers, Utah, Minnesota, Sacramento, Philadelphia, New York, @Detroit, @New York, Boston, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Washington.

Once the Heat get out of those first four games, the rest of the month plays into the hands of a team that is looking to gel, as Miami plays nine of the next twelve at home, with a seven-game homestand in the middle, and only facing two teams that made the playoffs. The Heat end the month with a four-game stretch that goes into December which should be their first real test, including a second showdown with the Cavs, and another title contender, the Thunder.

Win/loss prediction: 50-32, 2nd in the Southeast; 3rd in the East. Even with the soft early schedule, the Heat are going to be a work in progress. But they are farther along than they were last season. Miami is much deeper, have upgraded at point guard and center, and have something to prove after missing the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. I think they’ll put everything together by the end of the season, but there will be some bumps along the way.

Next: Hotlanta's Finest