Miami Heat: Southeast Division Preview

Oct 16, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Al Horford (15) drives to the basket past Dallas Mavericks forward Charlie Villanueva (3) during the first half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

#1 – Atlanta Hawks – 60-22, 1st  in the Southeast; 1st in the East

Projected starters: Jeff Teague (PG), Kyle Korver (SG), Kent Bazemore (SF), Paul Millsap (PF), Al Horford (C)

The surprise of the league, the Hawks steamrolled through the regular season on their way to 60 wins and the top spot in the East. Atlanta was tenth in scoring, fourth in shooting percentage, and second from three-point range. They were an efficient machine that caught the league off-guard. Then the playoffs happened and the wheels fell off. Now they have to replace DeMarre Carroll, who went north of the border to Toronto, and incorporate new players like Tiago Splitter and Tim Hardaway Jr. onto a squad that already has their naysayers thinking they can’t have this success again.

How it can go right: Getting back Thabo Sefolosha, who missed the Eastern Conference Finals because of the NYPD, as a three-and-D specialist should help replace some of what the Hawks lose with Carroll’s departure. Bazemore will need to step up and produce or else the Hawks will have a hole at small forward.

Horford and Millsap are one of the best frontcourt tandems in the East and can create issues for defenses. Korver gets a lot of those open threes because there’s so much attention to the bigs, who can also spread the floor with their shooting (Horford shot 47.7% on shots between 10-20 feet; Millsap shot 35.6% from three). Add in the speedy Teague to make the engine run and you can see why the Hawks were a juggernaut.

How it can go wrong: But the chink in the armor is what happens when those shots aren’t falling? As the Hawks discovered in the playoffs, not very well. Atlanta shot a little under 32% from three, down from 38% during the regular season. This made their offense struggle to get productive position. The losses of Korver (victim of a rabid Australian) and Sefolosha limited what they could do in the ECF.

Carroll’s departure is a blow on defense, as he was their best option against bigger small forwards like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. If the Hawks can’t find anyone that can replicate a portion of his production on that end, they’re going to be in trouble.

First month (or so) of games: Detroit, @New York, Charlotte, @Charlotte, @Miami, Brooklyn, @New Orleans, Washington, Minnesota, New Orleans, @Boston, Utah, @Brooklyn, Sacramento, @Cleveland, Boston, @Minnesota, @Memphis, @San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Lakers.

The schedule doesn’t look daunting the first few games, as the Heat appear to be their first test in game number five. Things turn up a notch starting with games against the Wizards, an upstart Jazz team, Cavs, and two games each against Boston and New Orleans. The end of the month doesn’t get easier. We’ll learn some things about the Hawks.

Win/loss prediction: 55-27, 1st in the Southeast; 1st in the East. Even with the loss of Carroll, any lingering hangover from their Conference Finals dismantling, the Wizards, and an improved Heat team, I still have the Hawks taking the division. I’ll also give them the edge for the one-seed, as the Cavs are already battling injuries and don’t really need to concern themselves with getting the top spot. Besides, the Hawks need to finish first, as it might be their only advantage down the road.

I’m sure all of these will be wrong, because what do we know? Orlando could win 60 games; the Hawks could falter; Miami could cling to an eight-seed. Anything is possible.

But one thing is for certain: Basketball is back! So whatever twists and turns this season has for us, just enjoy the ride!