Are The Miami Heat’s Rookies Keys To Playoff Success?

With the playoffs upon us, it’s time to look at things that could improve the Heat’s chances in the postseason and beyond. All U Can Heat writers Wes Goldberg and Chris Posada take a look at the twin phenomenons that are Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. 

Wes Goldberg: As we approach the playoffs, we start to look at what separates teams from each other. In the Eastern Conference, it’s specifically a tight race with not much difference between who will be the third seed and who will be the sixth seed. What stands out as an advantage for the Miami Heat is its experience and veteran leadership. From Dwyane Wade and Erik Spoelstra and trickling on down, Miami is battle tested and has roughed the road of the playoffs before. You look at the Raptors, Hornets, Celtics and even the Hawks and you don’t have that same knowledge of what it takes to win multiple playoff series.

But then there is this: Miami’s core off the bench is very young. They aren’t battle tested, but they have snuggled right up against what the Heat stands for. Especially rookies Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, whose defense-first mentality jives with the Heat culture, energizes the team and have turned what was a weakness for this organization last season (perimeter defense) into a strength. But the question remains, how much can we expect from Rook 1 and Rook 2 in the playoffs?

Chris Posada: The kids start over as rookies as all over again, as the playoffs are a completely different animal than the regular season. With that being said, Winslow and Richardson should fit right in on the defensive end, as their in-your-face style fits right with the slow, grind-it-out nature of the postseason. Pairing them with vets like Wade and Deng, with Whiteside looming in the background, should allow them to test how far the refs are willing to call a tight game.

But my questions will be on the other end. Will the spotlight be too bright for them on offense? Winslow has yet to put everything together, so will he stay with what he’s comfortable with? Will big game jitters game the better of a shooter like Richardson? Those are the benefits of being young role players on a veteran playoff team: they’re going to have their hands held during a trial by fire. I think Winslow will be Winslow, so he’ll be fine. But how quickly Richardson takes to the bright lights is the X-factor to the Heat’s playoff hopes.

Goldberg: In a weird way, I think this team needs Richardson to perform more so than Winslow. Winslow is a top-notch perimeter defender, but Wade and Johnson have been solid-to-good on that end. Richardson is this team’s best 3-point shooter–probably better than Johnson at this point–and he can open things up for everyone when he’s hitting.

Richardson does a nice job moving off the ball to find the opening in the defense in Miami’s drive-and-kick game, so if he keeps that up you would think he is going to get open looks. But, like you said, hopefully he’s making them. No defense will help off him, but Miami is going to need those three points, especially when going against good shooting teams like the Hornets, Hawks or Celtics.

Are you concerned with any of those teams more than others? And how do you see these rookies matching up against them?

Posada: While they are very good, the Celtics don’t really concern me. Playoff games, especially close ones, usually require someone to be The Guy in crunch time, and the Celtics don’t have that. Which is a weird knock on them, since they play some great team ball. I tweeted this yesterday (CHEAP PLUG) that of the four teams battling for the third-sixth spots in the East, the Celtics have the worst NetRtg (number of points scored/allowed projected over 100 possessions) of the group, with 7.7. The team with the best? The Heat, at 17.1. We saw it in Thursday game against Chicago, the Heat turn it up to 11 when they needed that extra little something towards the end of that game. Boston doesn’t seem to have that gear; Miami does.

The Hawks, who have been playing very well over the last month, come with a disadvantage: games in Atlanta might as well be a home game for opposing teams from big markets or have large national fanbases. The Heat would definitely qualify. Not to mention that the Hawks looked very vulnerable during last year’s playoffs, so there’s room for concern. But while they coasted at the end of last season, they’re surging now. That momentum could be dangerous.

Which brings me to the Hornets, who are second in NetRtg of these four teams at 15.2. They play great defense, while opening things up with capable shooters like Nic Batum and Marvin Williams. Kemba Walker is no stranger to big games in big moments. I’d like to avoid the Hive.

Goldberg: I think people should take the Hawks more seriously. They have been playing killer defense lately, and can wall off the rim to Wade and Dragic. Plus, Al Horford can draw Hassan Whiteside out of the paint, creating room for Jeff Teague to jump-start the drive-and-kick game. But I agree that the Hornets are a tough matchup for the Heat, but not as bad as people make them out to be. Remember, Hassan Whiteside is still a major concern for them that haven’t had an answer for.

But to bring it back to the rookies, I think Winslow and Richardson could play major roles if Miami faces a team like the Hawks or Celtics who thrive on moving the ball along the perimeter. Not only are they great one-on-one defenders, but Winslow is a fantastic team defender and switcher, Richardson can hound ball handlers and both play the passing lanes and create turnovers. The Heat will need to get as many transition points as possible and Rooks 1 and 2 could be the catalysts for that.

Posada: Can you recall a time when a team with two rookies, one of which was a second rounder, are key parts to a team’s playoff hopes? The Heat have that anomaly and I couldn’t be more excited! They’re both going to get crunch-time minutes for a team that could make a deep run, if things break in their favor.

Talk recently has become whether Pat Riley got lucky with these picks, considering the Heat’s history with draft picks. You could debate whether Winslow should have gone before 10, but he was high on their board and they realized his makeup was perfect for a team looking to get back to the playoffs this year, while Richardson had a top-15 grade for them. Call it luck that they were available, but call it terrific scouting to target them. Miami got two gems.