Predicting the Miami Heat’s 2016-17 roster

What could the Miami Heat’s final roster look like for next season? Let’s dive in.

In previous articles, we visited how the Miami Heat can maneuver to keep free agents Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside, and made an educated guess that the team will keep Joe Johnson while losing Luol Deng.

In this post, I’ll discuss how the Heat can round out their roster with a combination of veterans and rookie players.

Signing Wade, Whitedise and Jonson leave the Heat with no cap room. Therefore, they can only sign players using the minimum salary exception or the room exception.

The room exception is $2.9 million and allows the Heat to exceed the salary cap to sign a player for up to four years. The minimum salary exception allows the Heat to exceed the salary cap to sign any player to a one-year minimum contract.

The Heat are currently set at the point guard position with Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson and Briante Weber. The Heat have two shooting guards on the roster, Dwyane Wade and Josh Richardson, and is a position they can use more depth at. In a recent free agent camp, the Heat only invited shooting guards and bigs.

And then there is our old friend Gerald Green. Although Green had an overall poor year, he is still a potentially explosive scorer whose defense has improved. The law of averages means Green’s three point shot should return to his 36 percent career rate. Green seems to want to stay in Miami, and given last year’s performance he may not have other options. He should be available to sign for the minimum.

At small forward, the Heat have Justise Winslow under contract and could work out a one-year deal with Joe Johnson. This leaves one opening for another small forward or combo forward player. The Heat are likely looking for a 3-and-D type player for this position.

A 3-and-D  type like Matt Barnes.

Barnes is a feisty, defense first combo forward with an okay three-point shot, but many teams could steer clear due to his attitude problems (he’s routinely fined and/or suspended for anything and everything between kicking water bottles and obstructing police).

However, the Heat have had success with misfits in the past (aka Chris “Birdman” Andersen). The stability of the Heat organization, the strength of the Heat veterans, and the lure of Miami might be sufficient to sign Barnes, who will be 36 next year.

Barnes is an ideal candidate for the veteran’s minimum. Last year, Barnes averaged 10 points and 5.5 rebounds in 29 minutes per game. Barnes is a career 33 percent three-point shooter. Despite his age, in limited minutes, Barnes can still be a defensive pest. He can also play small-ball 4.

At power forward, the Heat have Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts. The uncertainty surrounding Bosh combined with McRoberts’ poor play make it likely the Heat will use their $2.9 million room exception on a big.

Jon Leuer is a stretch-4 who made just $1 million last year. He is 27 and a decent three-point shooter, converting on 38 percent of his three’s last year. In 18.7 minutes per game, Leuer averaged 8.5 points and 5.6 rebounds (all career highs). Leuer also likes to run, which makes him a good fit with Dragic. He can handle the ball some, which means he can push the tempo. He is limited defensively, but understands team defense after spending two years in Memphis. You could compare him to a very poor man’s Ryan Anderson, but much cheaper if the Heat were able to sign him with the room exception.

Other bigs (including small-ball bigs) the Heat might pursue with the room exception: Centers Dewayne Dedmon and Timofey Mozgov, power forwards David Lee and Quincy Acy and combo forward Lance Thomas.

At center, the Heat hope to re-sign Hassan Whiteside to a near-max deal. The Heat will undoubtedly bring back Udonis Haslem at the veteran minimum. As a Heat lifer, Haslem provides leadership and toughness. He’s also the kind of presence that can reign in bold personalities like Barnes.

For the final roster spot, the Heat may look for a developmental player. The Heat invited several bigs to their recent free agent camp. A player like Norvel Pelle is intriguing. Pelle is a 6’11” skilled shot-blocker. Four years ago he was ranked the top center in his high school class. He never played college ball, instead opting to play overseas and in the D-league. At just 23, Pelle is the kind of diamond in the rough the Heat know how to polish via their top notch player development program.

Barring blockbuster trades, fielding a team like this seems most likely for the Heat:

Depth chart:
PG: Dragic – T. Johnson – Weber
SG: Wade – Richardson – Green
SF: J. Johson – Winslow – Barnes
PF: Bosh – Leur – McRoberts
C: Whiteside – Pelle – Haslem

read more: Does Chandler Parsons make sense for the Heat?

The Heat won’t end up with the exact roster pictured above. But, barring blockbuster trades, they will end up with one very similar to it.

All salary cap figures via spotrac.com