The Miami Heat are 2-1 since introducing Josh McRoberts to the starting lineup. Should he and the sharp-shooting Wayne Ellington become mainstays with the unit?
The Miami Heat were 5-12 and staring at a tough three-game road trip. It featured back-to-back games at Denver and at Utah, followed by a match-up against Portland’s explosive scoring duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. A 1-2 finish was not only expected, but would have been welcomed.
However, the Heat surprised fans and pundits alike by sweeping the first two games. And that was despite playing in the unforgiving altitude out west, and missing almost half their roster. Further, they held a six-point lead in Portland with three minutes left, before running out of gas. The Heat almost returned to Miami with a surprising three-game winning streak.
So the question is: what changed? The Heat have been much-improved on offense, shooting 52 percent from the floor and averaging 103 points over their last three contests. How much credit do Josh McRoberts and Wayne Ellington deserve? More importantly, should they be the starters going forward once the team gets healthy?
We take a closer look and attempt to answer these pertinent questions.
The case for Wayne Ellington as a starter
It is obvious that Ellington’s return from injury has helped the Heat in a multitude of ways. If we remove his first game back, which was a lopsided loss to the Celtics in which everyone looked out of sorts, his numbers have been impressive. He has averaged 17 points per game on 53 percent shooting, and 41 percent from three-point range.
Although those percentages are not sustainable (he shoots 41 percent from the floor for his career), it is reassuring to know that he’s playing in the best shape of his life. He recently talked to Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald about it:
"“That’s the standard here so I put that extra work in, running and in the weight room, doing cardio and it’s paying off for me big time,” Ellington said Monday after practice. “I can be out there longer. I’m more efficient. The better shape I am, the harder I am to guard, the better defender I am. It’s completed my all-around game. It’s really helped me.”"
It’s certainly a possibility that this newfound commitment to fitness could lead to Ellington posting career-best numbers.
So far this season, Miami is plus-2.5 with him on the court. Their offensive rating is also a plus-6.9. A lot of that has to do with Ellington’s ability to space the floor and give Miami a legitimate catch-and-shoot option:
Although his defensive numbers are poor (he has the second-worst defensive rating on the team), giving him more time with the starting unit would make that less of a problem. After all, Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow can correct a lot of mistakes made on the defensive end.
So maybe that could be answer for the Heat. Once healthy, Winslow could start at power forward, along with Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Ellington and Whiteside. That lineup provides great floor-spacing with Richardson and Ellington’s shooting, and three of Miami’s premier on-ball defenders on the floor together. The more room Dragic has to attack the basket, and Whiteside has to post-up or dive to the rim, the better Miami’s offense will perform.
Then again, returning McRoberts to the bench would greatly limit his potential impact. Let me explain.
The case for Josh McRoberts as a starter
It’s no secret that Josh McRoberts has been a major disappointment for the Heat. We don’t even need to go into that much detail: he’s been hurt, and when healthy, has been mostly ineffective. Before this season, the big man told reporters that he was going to return as a center, which meant a permanent spot on the bench.
Due to injuries to Derrick Williams and Luke Babbitt however, McRoberts returned to the starting lineup, back at his natural power forward position. And in spite of his modest production, the Heat went 2-1 in his three starts. His impact goes far beyond the stat sheet. From Navarro’s piece:
"“He’s really vocal,” Josh Richardson said of McRoberts. “On the court, he’s like one of our most vocal people on our team, just getting the calls. He’s like a point guard on offense who is 6-11. On defense, he’s always getting it organized. He’s calling flats and zones, just being positive on the court. I think it’s good for our group – especially with not having CB [Chris Bosh] who is a real vocal leader. For him to come back and be a big guy that can talk also is big for us.”"
The Heat have outscored their previous three opponents with McRoberts in the game, and their assist percentage and defensive rebound rate have also gone up. He’s not lighting the world on fire, but he has been an improvement over Babbitt and Williams.
McRoberts will play an important role this season, but it needs to be at power forward. And always alongside Whiteside. McRoberts is the worst defender on the team, by far, and playing him at backup center feels like an open invitation for the opposing team to score in the paint at will:
Starting Whiteside and McRoberts together provides the Heat with cover for defensive breakdowns, and gives Miami a vocal leader on the floor.
What the Heat should do
My solution to this starting lineup conundrum is different than most would expect. I say coach Spoelstra scrap the Babbitt and Williams experiments entirely, and go with a unit of Dragic, Richardson, Ellington, McRoberts and Whiteside to open games.
Ellington and McRoberts provide experience, spacing, and smart passing, three qualities that the starting lineup has lacked before recently. They’re also not as effective coming off the bench.
Dion Waiters and Winslow, meanwhile, could greatly benefit from roles with the second unit. Waiters can be as aggressive as he wants with Dragic off the floor, and Winslow would still play major minutes, but be able to pick and choose when to be aggressive offensively. In a starter’s role, Winslow didn’t just struggle on offense either; his defense suffered too. So it’s a beneficial resolution for everyone involved.
Regardless of what Spoesltra decides to do, it’s good to see the team be close to getting healthy. Having a full arsenal of options at different positions could help them improve on their paltry 7-13 record.