The Miami Heat have been great since January, but things are guaranteed to get more interesting by the offseason.
It’s that time of the year where Cinderella narratives take over the headlines. Little know college players make runs through the NCCA tournament, underdog teams flourish and their NBA counterparts try to solidify narrow playoff births.
Fairytale stories like the Miami Heat’s turnaround are great. Unfortunately in most cases, their worlds usually come crashing down. But what would one truly expect when even Cinderella’s carriage turned back into a pumpkin after a while. That may not necessarily mean Miami missing out on the postseason, however a successful season could result in confusion by the end of the free agency period.
Salary cap math suggests that in order for the Heat to make Pat Riley style improvements over the summer they will have to sacrifice some, if not all, of their reclamation projects from the season.
The delicate balance there is whether Miami is willing to play basketball-chicken during another July or ready to just toss money at their own players.
Dion Waiters, for one, has publically let it be known that he wants to resign and have the process not take too long. Which is very reminiscent of Dwyane Wade’s stance from last year. The only difference is Waiters is 10 years younger an in the midst of his best statistical season in points, assists, rebounds and three-point shooting.
Furthermore, despite his lack of fourth quarter scoring (3.6 per game) his pride in taking hero shots has lucked him into more than his share of successful game sealing moments. Earning him a major contract upgrade.
The same goes for James Johnson who was focused enough to drop nearly 40 pounds since joining the Heat organization, resulting in the most productive season of his eight year career. Not only are his 12.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 34 percent three-point shooting an all time high, but he also is thriving in LeBron James’ Big Three role of all-purpose, ball handling, point-forward.
Complement that with the fact Wayne Ellington is one of the team’s most consistent three-point shooters–averaging a career high 11.4 points per game–and it could be a recipe for a repeat of Luol Deng and Joe Johnson.
If the Heat wait too long it could result in outside teams stealing their assets. If they rush too fast they could overpay for three written off players who could be in danger of regressing to their means after receiving new contracts.
No one knows how tricky things will get for the Heat this summer, however a fairytale ending in free agency seems unlikely.