The Miami Heat have dug themselves into a hole with back-to-back losses over the weekend. What do they have to do now to make the playoffs?
At one point last week, it seemed the Miami Heat could have made a play for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now, after two-straight losses, they are barely holding onto a spot in the post-season.
A week ago, the Heat had a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Five Thirty Eight’s forecasting. That was, however, before two losses to the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets. Since then, the Heat’s odds of making the post-season have dipped to just 44 percent.
Miami is 37-40 and a game back of the surging Chicago Bulls for the seventh spot. They are clinging on to the eighth seed thanks to owning the tie breaker with the Pacers. However, Five Thirty Eight gives Indiana a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs — better odds than the Heat – in large part due to the teams’ remaining schedules.
The Heat have a tough stretch over their final five games: At Charlotte on Wednesday, at Toronto on Friday, at Washington on Saturday, then two home games against Cleveland and Washington to end the season.
That’s three of five on the road against four playoff teams (and Charlotte, just a game behind Miami, will be playing for their playoff lives on Wednesday) with a combined record of 224-160 and one back-to-back.
As for the Pacers, they play Toronto and Milwaukee at home, then two road games against Orlando and Philadelphia and then finish the year at home against Atlanta. That’s three of five games at home and no back-to-backs against opponents with a combined record of 181-204.
That’s what made this weekend’s losses to the Knicks and Nuggets so hard to swallow. Those were the most winnable games in this final stretch of the season. Now the Heat need to finish not only with a better record than the Pacers, but also with a better record than the Hornets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
That makes Wednesday’s game in Charlotte a must win for Miami. The Hornets currently lead the season series 2-1, and if they win Wednesday will own the tie breaker and overtake the Heat for the eighth seed. If Miami wins, they will tie the season series and own the tie breaker thanks to a better conference record, and take a two game lead for the final spot in the playoffs.
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The Heat dug themselves into a hole to start the season and clawed their way out of it to get into this position. With two straight losses, they’ve created another ditch for themselves to work their way out of. They’ve done it before, we’ll see if they can do it again.