Could Justise Winslow’s ceiling be Washington’s Otto Porter?

Like the Miami Heat’s Justise Winslow, Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter also struggled with his shot early in his career.

I’m often asked what I think Justise Winslow’s ceiling is or might be, and it’s easy to fall back on the common draft-day comparisons to Kawhi Leonard, or Miami Heat president Pat Riley’s comparison to Draymond Green. If you squint, you can see the similarities between Winslow and those two All-Stars, but the comparison is born out of hope. Because I’m asked so much about what I think Winslow’s ceiling is or might be, I decided to actually think about it.

And I think Winslow’s ceiling is or could be Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter.

Porter had equally high (if not higher) expectations thrust upon him since being drafted third overall by the Washington Wizards in 2013. Two years after, Winslow was taken 10th overall by the Heat.

Porter is long at 6-foot-8. Longer than Winslow, and leaner too at 198 pounds, but his skills mirror those of Winslow’s, and so do his faults. Porter from the moment he touched down on an NBA court was a pro-level defender. His length bothers opponents, and he puts real effort in at the end. As a rookie, Winslow was able to carve out playing time on a veteran Heat team by playing tough-nosed defense.

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Like Winslow, Porter struggled with his perimeter jumper early in his career. Winslow made just 27.6 percent of his 3-pointers as a rookie and was shooting 20 percent before his sophomore effort was cut short by shoulder surgery. Only last season did he finally turn it around. Porter went from shooting 19 percent from 3-point range to 43.4 percent in his fourth season. The Heat and Winslow may be hoping for a similar leap.

Things were made easier for Porter by the presence of John Wall, who is among the best facilitators in the NBA. Washington’s drive-and-kick offense presents open perimeter shots for Porter.

The Heat found something similar last season in Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters, but Erik Spoelstra didn’t deploy that offense until well after Winslow was sidelined for the season. Winslow will be healthy for the 2017-18 season and should reap the benefits of Dragic and Waiters running the show.

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It is not a perfect comparison. Winslow is a more versatile defender, and perhaps a better ball handler and athlete. Porter is probably a more natural scorer. But it is a better comparison to make than expecting Winslow to develop into Leonard or Green–two of the best 10 or 15 players in the league.

Following the expiration of his rookie deal, Porter signed a max contract this summer. He made his leap just in time to cash in. For Winslow, that should be encouraging. With two more years left on his rookie deal, there’s time. Comparisons to Leonard and Green will most likely lead to disappointment. Reaching Porter’s level is far more in reach.