The Miami Heat’s future will be determined by the final 26 games of the season. Either they will scrap into the playoffs or build up their lottery odds.
After a nice win in Dallas, the Miami Heat will get a few days off during the All-Star break before throwing their weight behind a playoff push. These final 26 games could be as important as any stretch since the end of the Big Three era.
First, a status update: At the time of the break, the Heat (26-30) have lost six of their last 10 games and are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the eighth-best record in the Eastern Conference.
It’s hardly been an ideal season for Miami. Outside of an impressive December run that was no doubt juiced by the revelation of #PointJustise, the team has faced a carousel of injuries, lineup changes and shifts in the locker room hierarchy. However, after undergoing a knee scope that has sidelined him since early December, Goran Dragic is expected to return soon after the break.
The Heat expected to be better than this, hoping to build on a 41-41 season and playoff performance from a year ago; now you can’t guarantee Miami will even reach .500. They need to win 15 of the next 26–which would be doable under normal circumstances–but face one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league.
That schedule includes two games against the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors apiece, another matchup against the Golden State Warriors and a game against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. You could argue that’s six games against the best four teams in the league. They also have two games against the 76ers and a pair vs the Celtics.
Assuming the Heat lose each of those games, that means the Heat need to win 15 of 16.
Suddenly, things don’t look as doable.
And it only gets more daunting.
Factor in that Miami’s easiest remaining opponents are the Knicks, Suns, Cavaliers, Hawks, Wizards and Magic, against whom the Heat are an uninspired 9-6, and there’s reason to have even less confidence.
At least the Heat’s remaining schedule favors more home games but, wait, this team is just 11-16 at home.
The Heat need to win 15 of its final 26 games (57.7 win percentage) to reach .500.
— Locked On Heat (@LockedOnHeat) February 15, 2019
They are 20-27 (42.5%) against teams on the remaining schedule.
This season’s playoff hopes will likely come down to the wire, and Miami’s last three games are against playoff teams: Toronto and a back-to-back against Philadelphia and Brooklyn. There’s a chance those teams rest players ahead of the playoffs, but Toronto may still be battling Milwaukee for the top seed in the conference, Philadelphia will want to get as many reps as possible for its revamped roster ahead of its postseason run, and Brooklyn doesn’t really have super stars to rest.
It comes down to this: To make the playoffs, this Heat team will need to play better than it ever has.
This Heat team. The one with eroding players on bloated contracts, no No. 1 option and embattled in an everlasting tug-of-war with consistency.
If it wasn’t for a five-game win streak in December, Miami’s playoff hopes may already be dead. That’s how precarious this season has been. Still, if the Heat bang out one more run like that, they’ll be right back in the mix.
But even then, what’s the point? Is a playoff push just to get the No. 8 seed and get stomped by the Bucks in less than six worth the price of admission?
I’m not saying the Heat should tank–and the only reason I’m not saying it is because we know they won’t. At least not yet.
Of the next 26 games, the first 13 could dictate how the Heat approach the final 13. The Heat will kick off its post-All-Star break schedule in Philadelphia before a three-game home stand against the Suns, Pistons and Warriors. Then, a couple of weeks later, there’s a five-game home stand. If the Heat haven’t climbed into playoff position by then, it probably won’t ever happen, and tanking the final 10-plus games is feasible.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Miami could go from the 11th to 14th slot in the draft lottery (with a less than 10 percent chance of landing a top-four pick) to sixth or seventh and a one-out-of-three chance to land a top-four pick.
That could be the difference between Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish or Ja Morant and… Keldon Johnson? Brandon Clarke?
These next 26 games will be pivotal. Either the Heat will coalesce into something resembling a playoff team, or they’ll sink further into the lottery kicking and screaming. Sometimes the cure for what ails you doesn’t go down smooth.