Miami Heat: Should they tank or compete?

What does the team have to benefit from tanking this late into the season, when all the other teams have already made valiant strides to get a top draft pick?

Ebrahim (@iebrahim81): It’s never too late to start tanking. Never. Although the NBA has evened out the odds for the lottery, the luck of the draw could always go in the way of a big market like Miami. Sure, the conspiracists would have a field day if the Heat jumped into the top-3, but stranger things have happened. But in all seriousness, not making the playoffs could have a profound effect on the team. The last time the Heat had a top-10 pick, they landed Justise Winslow (and passed on Devin Booker, but that’s a different story). Just having a top-echelon pick will allow the team to either draft another foundational piece for the future or have the ability to trade down and discard some of these horrible contracts on our roster. Tie in the fact that Dragic and Whiteside will be on expiring deals and much easier to trade, the roster could look miles different next season.

Nurse (@followthepen): While other teams do have a head start on the top pick, Miami tanking could help twofold. According to cap guru, Albert Nahmad, if the Heat can finish with the eight worst record, there is a six percent chance at the first pick, 26.2 percent chance at top four and a 73 percent chance at eighth. They also can avoid the dreaded luxury tax by missing the playoffs and maneuvering Kelly Olynyk’s minutes.

Rahming (@Boneman9000): People keep whispering names like Cam Reddish possibly falling to pick thirteen-ish, but I really don’t see it happening. I think the team has a lot more to lose by tanking the rest of the season. First of all, you have a lot of returning players next year. Tanking would wreck the locker room more than it already may be because Pat Riley (a known winner) would be installing a losing culture into a team that has always been known to try as hard as possible to win games. That’s not a good look.

Second of all, tanking would be one way to guarantee all those “pre-agents” (players under contract requesting trades) and free agents will stop listing Miami as a place they want to play. Players aren’t dumb. They know what teams give them the best chances to win/have a good culture and will make their decisions accordingly. I find it hard to believe that no free agents will end up signing with Miami in the next couple of years.

Mora (@moraivan): I think at this point it will be a repeat of last year and we all know how that ended.  The Heat just don’t have the right pieces in place to contend. They aren’t even close at this moment.  They need a shakeup. The likes of Winslow, Richardson, and Adebayo will surely be a part of the future, but they need to move some pieces around and it all has to start with the draft.  Even if they end up with a high pick, they can even use that as a trade chip. Of if they get luckier and manage the top 3, then that can somehow become attractive for free agents. There are ways to make a drastic change and this summer and draft could be the start of that.

Campbell (@theboyro): The Heat has no realistic chance of a top pick. There’s no Zion Williamson coming to South Beach. But this draft class could be the start of finally getting some nice players. Miami gains nothing from making the postseason and losing in the first round. It’s never too late to throw in the towel. Why waste time playing the inconsistent James Johnson or Hassan Whiteside? The Heat (Pat Riley) aren’t known to be patient and want to win now. If Miami does get a top-10 pick, they could inquire about a trade and try to get some of these absurd contracts off the books. This team cannot stay the same next season. Changes need to be made in order to be read for life after Wade.

Wilson (@ksaidwhat): This team won’t gain anything from tanking. As previously mentioned, “tanking” breeds a culture of losing, which is never good. Secondly, there are 9 teams below the Heat in the standings right now with many actually trying to lose. That matters because even as the 9th team, there is only a 4.5 percent chance of landing the Zion Williamson pick, oops, I mean the number 1 pick. After numero uno, it goes in reverse order of worst record, which would sit the Heat at 10.

On the draft itself, even number 1 isn’t a surefire thing. Pointing to a previous piece of my own, the draft is never a sure thing. In that same light, you could land a really productive player at any point in the draft if you know how to go about it, which the Heat organization has excelled at when having the picks to actually use. See Josh Richardson, Eddie House, Rasual Butler, Marcus Thornton, or even one I bet many don’t even know, the main guy for the aforementioned Indiana Pacers in Bojan Bogdanovic. They were all taken by the Miami Heat in just the second round of the draft, never mind the first round talent they have amassed with late picks. The cost of tanking isn’t always worth the reward, and if it isn’t a sure thing, it’s not worth sacrificing seasons. It isn’t worth it even in a season as disappointing as this one has been, but even with that and as “they” say, “it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.”

With quite a bit of time left, and some winnable games on the schedule,  let’s just say she hasn’t started tuning up yet, and those are just the factuals. K said what? K said that.