The Miami Heat suffered another crushing defeat in overtime against the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. It may have sealed their playoff fate.
The Miami Heat came into Sunday already needing help to make the post season. Their first task at hand was to help themselves by coming away with a victory against the Toronto Raptors. They were unsuccessful.
With the Brooklyn Nets and the Orlando Magic clinching the sixth and seventh seeds in the Eastern Conference playoffs, there is a slim chance that the Heat can capture the eighth seed. With the Detroit Pistons barely holding on to the eight seed, and tied record-wise with the Charlotte Hornets at nine, the path isn’t quite as simple as one would like.
The only path to the eighth seed would be to have Detroit and Charlotte both lose out, while the Heat win out the rest of their games. This would leave the Heat with a record of 40-42, while the Pistons would finish with a record of 39-43, and the Hornets would close at 38-44. Of course this means the Heat would have to close the season by beating the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday and the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, which could be daunting tasks, but could go Miami’s way if both teams decide to rest players having clinched berths already.
Seeing as though the Hornets last two games are against the Orlando Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers, it is reasonable to assume that they could lose one of those games. However with Orlando having already clinched a playoff berth, they could opt to rest their starters, thus clearing a path for two Charlotte Wins.
The Pistons close with the Memphis Grizzlies and the New York Knicks, and although the Memphis game could go either way, the Knicks game should definitely be a win. If the Hornets win both, or if the Pistons win just one of their final games, things become a lot more sticky. The key here to remember is that Miami has to win their final two games regardless.
If the Miami Heat end up with the same record as the Detroit Pistons, they would miss out due to tie breakers. With the head to head season match-up being split, the next tie breakers would not apply. Those would be division winners(which neither were) and record within division if the teams are in the same division(which they aren’t).
The tie breaker straw that breaks the camel’s back for the Miami Heat is the conference record for tied teams that aren’t in the same division. When comparing the conference records to one another, Detroit is too far ahead to catch even if the Heat win out, with the Pistons currently at 26-25 to Miami’s 22-28.
If the Miami Heat ended up in a tie with the Charlotte Hornets, the equation wouldn’t be quite as complicated, but would end the same way for the Miami Heat. With the teams also splitting their head to head match-ups this season, it would then rely on their records within their division since neither team won their divisions. Since the Hornets and Heat both play in the Southeast division, the Hornets would get the slot by having a better divisional record than the Heat.
With only two games remaining, and none against divisional opponents, the Heat wouldn’t be able to make up for the lead that the Hornets currently have. The situation is dire, and things only look more grim from here.
With that said, hopefully the Miami Heat close the season on a high note with two wins on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s to hoping the Pistons and Hornets lose their remaining two games as well, because those exact series of events are the only way the Heat sniff the playoffs. Sad but it’s so, hard but it’s fair, or at least that’s how the saying goes.