Miami Heat: FiveThirtyEight predicts big improvement for Heat

Sportsbooks have middling views on the future for the Miami Heat, but FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model expects them to make strides in the right direction.

ESPN and the major sportsbooks have been less than impressed with the 2019-20 outlook for the Miami Heat, but at least one major prediction outlet has a rosier view of their future.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projection model expects the Heat to go 44-38 next season with a +1.1 net rating. In comparison with how they actually performed last season, they went 39-43 with a -.6 net rating last season, so this would be a marked improvement of five wins and a +1.7 net rating bump.

This record would place them fifth in the Eastern Conference behind the Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors. Under this model they would have an 86 percent chance at making the playoffs and a 4 percent chance at making the NBA Finals.

The CARMELO model makes some interesting projections around the league, including the Golden State Warriors getting the second seed in the Western Conference, and the Brooklyn Nets finishing on the playoff fringe in the East tied for eighth with the Chicago Bulls with matching 38-44 records.

CARMELO is FiveThirtyEight’s improved approach to team projections, using player performance as a bigger part of the predictive process than team performance alone. You can read all about the methodology involved here.

FiveThirtyEight’s old model, Elo, has a dimmer view of the Miami Heat’s upcoming season. According to Elo, the Heat can expect to go 41-41 with a -0.2 net rating.

Elo makes some even more far-fetched projections, such as the Toronto Raptors finishing first in the Eastern Conference, the Charlotte Hornets making the playoffs with the eight seed at 40-42 in spite of having very little NBA talent, the LA Clippers finishing eighth in the Western Conference at 42-40 and the Los Angeles Clippers of LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing the playoffs with a 37-45 record.

Obviously, predictions like this must be taken with a serious grain of salt, but it’s refreshing to see that a model like CARMELO is pleased with the steps taken by team president Pat Riley and the Miami Heat.