Using NBA 2K20 to predict the Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

The Miami Heat travel to the middle of the country to face the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night. What does NBA 2K20 have to say about the matchup?

In our ongoing NBA 2K20 game-day preview series, we turn to Wednesday night’s game between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers. The Heat bring their 26-10 record on the road to face the 23-14 Pacers.

We’ve been predicting game outcomes for the Heat using NBA 2K20 for almost a month, and to this point we’ve only gotten two games incorrect. Once again we’ll look to the advanced predictive powers of NBA 2K to get an idea of what to expect in this game between the Eastern Conference rivals.

First, the ground rules. We modified the Pacers’ lineup to reflect their rotation and minutes from their last game, a 115-104 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Monday. This means their real-life injuries are reflected in their lineup, including Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo. While Domantas Sabonas is day-to-day with a knee injury, we decided to include him in their lineup with full minutes.

As for the Heat, we opted to go with their recent Jimmy Butler-heavy rotation, given that he’s probable to play. This means we’re going to mostly disregard their last game against the Portland Trail Blazers, and in spite of James Johnson‘s strong game off the bench, he’s going to receive another DNP-CD. Justise Winslow has made progress towards getting back on the floor, but we’ll wait until he’s actually cleared to play before we include him in a simulation.

In order to reflect the Heat’s defensive tendencies, we moved up head coach Erik Spoelstra’s run zone tendency from five percent to 50 percent. We also changed Bam Adebayo’s secondary position to power forward since Meyers Leonard’s positions look that way. Lastly, I edited Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Adebayo’s vitals to allow them to initiate the offense.

Starting lineups

Miami Heat

Point guard, Kendrick Nunn

Shooting guard, Duncan Robinson

Small forward, Jimmy Butler

Power forward, Bam Adebayo

Center, Meyers Leonard

Indiana Pacers

Point guard, Aaron Holiday

Shooting guard, Justin Lamb

Small forward, T.J. Warren

Power forward, Domantas Sabonis

Center, Myles Turner

Outcome

Pacers 125, Heat 107

The game got off to a tight start, ending the first quarter tied at 25, but from that point forward the Pacers won each quarter and took a 60-49 lead into the half. The Heat couldn’t get anything going from 3-point range, shooting just 8-of-27 from behind the arc, while the Pacers couldn’t miss, shooting 12-of-26 from distance.

The Pacers had 32 assists and won the rebounding battle 45-42, essentially outplaying the Heat across the board in this game, although the Heat had a 27-19 edge at the free throw line.

Player stats

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo – 28 points, 18 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block

Tyler Herro – 25 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal

Goran Dragic – 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists

Jimmy Butler – 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals

Duncan Robinson – 11 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists

Kendrick Nunn – 7 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists, 4 steals

Indiana Pacers

Aaron Holiday – 30 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists

Myles Turner – 27 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 4 blocks

Jeremy Lamb – 18 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal

Domantas Sabonis – 10 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists

T.J. Warren – 8 points 1, rebound, 1 assist, 1 steal

Make sure to check back Friday morning for our next projections between the Miami Heat and the Brooklyn Nets.